Astro-Waiting for Godot?

Any Further Push?

Numerous research houses are singing songs backing Astro as a top performer. But for holders of this dreadful stock, it has been one bitter rite. Perhaps, a rite of passage not to ever dabbled in Malaysian IPOs with its twists and turns particularly the Astro IPO.

Jeez, even cornerstone buyers can sell on Day 1.

Stupido!!

Imagine a company laden with debts more than its assets apparently, being foisted upon the Malaysian public just to get fresh new blood for its bleeding financials.

Astro's third quarter results is slated to be released on Dec 5. Will its price sprint?

So far, in spite of the slight push-up last week to RM 2.88, it has gone under water again. This is equivalent to about 4.3% below its IPO price of RM 3.00.

Standing firm behind Credit Suisse's outperform call on Astro, head of Malaysian equities at Credit Suisse Stephen Hagger says he is confident in the company due to its growing subscriber base, coupled with its increasing average revenue per subscriber, coming primarily from the adoption of high definition (HD) programme packages.

“Its subscriber base is still growing across all ethnic groups, particularly among the Malays, who love Astro's in-house productions.

As such, the company offers unique exposure to consumer spending that is both halaland discretionary, in a rapid growing population,” he says.

In Credit Suisse's report released on Tuesday, it expects Astro to grow its subscriber base as well as average revenue per user (arpu). Its arpu has grown steadily to RM 92 in the first half of 2013 from RM 89 in 2012, compared to RM 82 in 2010 when it was delisted.

“We believe Astro is a potential beneficiary of Malaysia's attractive demographics, a young and growing population, whereby a growing economy is driving income growth. Malay households, which account for 60% of Astro's subscribers have the highest income growth within the Malaysian population,” it says.

It says HD, PVR (personal video recorder), premium content and Internet protocol television (IPTV) services are potential arpu drivers for Astro in the longer term.

“There's also an opportunity for Astro to tap prepaid revenues via its NJOI offering, which doesn't incur any subscriber acquisition cost. Yet, NJOI could see long-term potential revenue upside if users buy prepaid content,” it says.

The investment bank had also set a discounted cash flow-based target price of RM3.50, implying a 21.9% potential upside.

“While financial year 2013 to 2014 earnings are dampened by significant cost related to a box swap, we expect profitability to rebound in financial year 2015, when the bulk of Astro's subscriber homes will be equipped with an HD box,” it says.

Hagger says while investors should take note of its upcoming quarterly results, short-term earnings are way less important than the long-term prospects of the company, in particular looking at subscriber and arpu growth which will provide a guide to the long-term value of this company.

“Despite its extremely strong cash-flow, I don't see Astro as a dividend yield stock quite yet, until such a time that the board feel comfortable with gearing and capital expenditure levels and crucially articulates a dividend policy. The dividend yield will however come and it will attract a new group of investors,” he says.

On the recent sell-down in Astro shares, Hagger says there were probably a number of factors responsible for this. One of which was a possible margin call on approved bumiputra investors under the International Trade and Industry Ministry portion.

“The process of the allocation is not transparent, but it is possible that a significant number of shares went to individuals, who may then have been hit by margin calls, sending the stock into a downward spiral. However, looking at the recent stability of share price, it seems that most of these weak holders have been cleared out,” he says.

Credit Suisses also notes that despite the sell-down, senior management comprising the CEO, COO, chief commercial officer and also the chief innovation officer, all bought Astro shares after the listing.

Currently, Astro commands a 99% pay-TV market share and 12% share of the broader communications industry in Malaysia as of financial year 2012. Its three million subscriber base translate into a household penetration rate of close to 50%, relatively lower compared to India's 80% and Singapore's 70%, which still represents a growth potential in the local market.

Looks like we may have to wait to 2015 to see some nest eggs.

Bad News All in a Day

Fractured femur

Two days ago, I had bad news.

As usual, in spite of all the cajoling to be careful, my dad fell and fractured his femur.

At 87, very few doctors will attempt an operation to set the bone right for him because the cons outweigh the pros.

Also the fears of infection and other complications can arise and also  the need for possible blood transfusion.

There is little choice but to counter pain with painkillers when he gets out from the Malacca General Hospital.

Ops required if hole does not close

The other sad news is that my grand niece has to undergo a hole-in-heart operation which costs more than a bundle of ringgits. A patch is required to prevent oxygen-low blood for inter-mingling with oxygen-rich blood in the heart compartments.

Hopefully, after the ops, she can grow up healthy like just any other little girl.

I have said prayers of protection for my father and yet he fell.

God sure works in mysterious ways.

FGV-Defying Market Gravity with Difficulty

Anti-gravity?

It's a pity that FGV, a political counter is under intense pressure to perform on the Bursa KL.

I guess one reason for the lack of interest is that it it a possibly propped up political counter awaiting a larger fall-out after the 13th GE.

At the moment, government funds are getting a load of this counter particularly the EPF which has been selling blue chips left and right to do its bidding to hold the shares up.

It has fallen because of lack of interest from both private funds; local and global.

Forget retail buying, there is just no money to be made.

Today it fell to to RM 4.54 below its IPO price of RM 4.55 and as long as the 13th GE is not called, it will go into slumberous mutation in price.

How sad for the FELDA settlers who bought the shares.

 There is just no way to defy price gravity!

Astro: Why the Big Push on Small Volume?

Who is buying?

There was actually no big buyer, no volume buys and yet the price of Astro climbed ever steadily all day  today after a false start in the wee hours of trading

The biggest were only in lots of 1000 units. It climbed 14 sen to close at the magic number of RM 2.88.

So, there is actually no push;merely retailers taking a bite or two.

Let us see whether there will be any follow-through tomorrow.

If there is a sudden stop in buying, then it will possibly be a flash in the pan.

Or is some one collecting it slowly?

A New Tense?

This is one unlikely cartoon.

A new tense?

Twitter- Are We Just Wasting Time?

Birdie-Birdie Num-Num

There were times that I felt Twitter was really one great  way to get up-dated information.

These days looking at what goes on Twitter, I think it is just one big waste of time.

Looking at what the politicians in Malaysia are doing with it and on it, certainly confirms it.

We really deserved these nuts in office if we want to be non-judgmental with the kind of garbage they are spewing on the internet!

Robberies, Business Security and Safety

Turning your backs?

I always advocated this:

If you want to attract foreign investment,there must be two pre-conditions.

Firstly, there must be law and order.

Secondly, there must be legal remedy if a wrong is done.

I fear we are coming short on both counts.

Politics aside, I think the fear factor has ratcheted up many times over the years.

Public perception of the police has taken an all time low especially  with the high rate of robberies, snatch thieves and lately even rapes of civilians at police stations.

As usual, the political football was panned out and PR exercises were offered with statistics ponied up that crime rate has gone down....way-way down.

Do we feel relieved?

Why Me, Worry?

No, wonder why?

Are we fooling ourselves or just attempting to protect the tourism trade?

I had a drink with a friend yesterday. He had to close his business down because his factories were hit time and again by the same group of robbers until no insurance companies wanted to cover his factories. He has appealed to all parties-from political parties, to the police and even the local taikohs for action but to no avail. If you trade in  businesses that utlises aluminum and copper, expect to be robbed dry!

As for the law, they do not seem to be effective!

Rose Byrne-Dramatic Flair and Beauty

Looker from Australia

If you follow the legal drama; Damages, you will see the beauty and dramatic flair of the petite and beautiful Rose Byrne as Ellen Parsons.

Hepburn Allure

Season after season she grew under the wings of Pattie Hewes and finally in the penultimate Season 5, she upped ended Glenn Close's persona's ever angry ever scheming top-notch legal mind manifested in power above all.

While there are many collateral damage for both protagonist and antagonist, the series is riveting at best.

Those Eyes!

Great series!

Mysterious siren

As for Rose Byrne, she is just alluring in both beauty and speech as Ellen Parsons!

Damages: Wicked, Crackling Dialogue, Intriguing Plots

Wickedly Plotty

This is one riveting series if you like investigative plot lines amidst witty dialogue.

Riding on the American legal system of pleading and negotiation, this tv  series is explosive and can be violent with its unnecessary deaths laced with corruption in high places including the police force.

So, what is new?

While the series was great up to the third season, it seems to have run out of steam beginning the fourth season. I am not sure whether this hiatus will reflect that the series has plateau off in terms of suspense and plot-lines but I hope they can resume in its  great plot lines to sustain audience interest.

Sly and can outdo Patty

To me, Glen Close as Patty Hewes  is one tough cookie though contrived at best. As for Rose Byrne as Ellen, this waif-like beauty is adorable. She looks so much like Audrey Hepburn in the way she turns her head but she certainly ooze more sex appeal.

Will write some more after I finish off both the fourth and fifth seasons.

For now, it has been a great time watching Damages.

Zeti Plays with her Numbers

Number Announcer

They all speak officialese.

They may be skillful manipulators of statistics and reshaping into potential short term policies.

Above all, they provide the data for industry to plan.

They say that statistics can be made to lie. Then there are those that will always pepper it with conditionalities like 'ifs' so that they can get away scot-free when their projections go awry.

So, now that Zeti has come out with her take on the 3rd quarter of 2012 and her overall scenario, what say you?

This is what Zeti said:

• There is a likelihood of the economy surpassing the 4-5 % government fore-cast for 2012.
• The Malaysian economy expanded by 5.2% in the 3rd Q of 2012.
• All first 3Qs were good

Based on the above  forecast and results, Zeti has guesstimated a 5% or even better growth rate for Malaysia in 2012.

Zeti also reiterated that the economy was expected to grow at a similar rate in the 4Q.

The economy grew by 5. 6 per cent in the second quarter and by 4. 7 per cent in the first quarter

Growth in the second quarter was revised upwards from 5 4 per cent to 5 6 per cent due to new data.

The Malaysian economy was affected by weaker external demand which led to a 50. 5 per cent decline in net exports of goods

and services but the drop was partially offset by sustained growth in domestic demand

Domestic demand continued to drive the country’s economic growth with private sector demand growing 11. 6 per cent in the 3Q and public sector demand expanding 10. 9 per cent.

“We are not insulated from external uncertainties but the anchor to the economy is domestic demand ” said Zeti.

 Private consumption grew by a slower pace of 0 8 per cent in the third quarter as compared with 2 8 per cent the previous

quarter helped by government aid policies such as the RM500 handouts to low-income households bonuses and readjusted pensions to civil servants.

Inflation meanwhile moderated to 1. 4 per cent in the third quarter from 1. 7 per cent in the second quarter

Zeti's caution:

“However we can’t rule out upside risks to inflation ” Zeti said .Net financing grew by 12 8 per cent while loan growth increased 11 9 per cent.

 Zeti said based on stress testing Malaysian banks remain well capitalised and the risk of de-leveraging by European banks to Malaysia remained low.

“Stress tests affirm the resilience of financial institutions under severe contraction and extreme volatility and under the worst case scenario capitalisation of Malaysian banks remain satisfactory. ” she said.

 Zeti said that while external sector weakness will affect overall growth factors underpinning domestic demand are expected to remain firm.

She said that private consumption will be supported by stable employment conditions, income growth and cash transfers while investment activity will be led by business spending in domestic oriented sectors, infrastructure projects and the oil and gas sector.

BSKL-Topsy Turvy and Clueless

BSKL is Topsy-Turvy

You just cannot discuss the BSKL rationally these days.

May be it is not meant to be.

As the penny stocks lost steam a couple of trading days back, the giants are being brought down systematically today.

Starting with the felling of the telecommunications counters, the disease has spread even to retail. Amway got hurt bad and they also shot down Sime Darby today.

On the other hand, some parties are pumping up Astro while the pension funds are still selling down TM, Digi and YTL Corp.

The market appears to lack directions.

It is marginally lower each day, decimated by sporadic selling on the blue chips and the penny stocks seems to be doing better today such as THH Engineering with some some headway traction to appear green on the board.

Directionless and clueless

Let us see how next week will fare as world markets are also getting clueless.

YTL Corp Versus the Pension Fund Dumpsters

An Overbite from EPF?

It appears that way.

I think YTL Corp shares are continuously being sold down by state pension funds for reasons best known to themselves. BSKL records shows that EPF is the party.

As for YTL Corp, I think they will use the Treasury buy-in to  prevent the price of the counter from being further eroded with such persistent selling down by these funds.

Fighting Back

It may be tough but with a huge war chest of RM 14 billion, Francis can do the trick to ensure the YTL counters can withstand the onslaught of these selling parties.

For those intending to hop in on YTL Corp, this could be a good entry point.

However, do it cautiously because I do not expect this counter to be a road runner in the short term.

As it is now, the YTL Corp shares are trading down below RM 1.70.

A classic Alien versus Predator combat is on.

Both are survivors.

Taken Still Hits the Mark

A Hot Number

After watching Taken 2, I walked down memory lane to review the original Taken movie.

Though this movie has a better premise on the trafficking of young girls for prostitution by Albanians, it may lack the gut crunching, bone cracking and neck-breaking suspense and action of the sequel.

Swifter moves from Neeson

Here you see a more active and physique Liam Neeson, a younger Maggie Grace and a less lethargic Famke Janssen.

Aging Galore

Though not directed by Luc Beeson, it still has enough captive power to wow audience.

Even to this day.

A Younger Kim Played by Maggie Grace

Great to see Taken again.

Tengku Razaleigh-Enigma on the Home Run

Fallen Angel;Lost Hope?

As the days passed by ever so quickly and the next election awaits PM Najib's call, one person stands alone equivocal at best or at worst.

He has spoken for the party and also that BN will win status quo after the 13th GE.

But is he believable since his unwavering principled stand amidst the variety of corruption expose that has erupted in the last few months from the Cows-Condominum Connundrum to the Hummer Heigh Ho?

Also, if he should stay in BN, will he just retire as the date of the GE gets closer if he is not chosen as a candidate?

No, the likelihood of him joining the PR is already over and done with.

If he ever comes back to the bench of government, he must be given a worthy senior post.

Will PM Najib accede to this?

As for the PR if they should win Putrajaya, they might just secure his willingness to participate in a government  renaissance through a senatorship if he is willing.

Such a enigma and on the home run .

Many are still scratching their heads.

How do you read Ku Li?

SkyFall-Intermission for Changing of the Guards?

Looks that way for sure.

Skyfall is written in such a way as to dispose of Dame Judi Dench as M; to give an African American lady the role of Money Penny and to give Ralph Fiennes the role of M. Yes, and Javier Bardem  that dastardly Spanish character actor with the worse haircut from,  No Country for Old Men as the arch villain after M's hide!

Shanghai Shoot-out

As for Berenece Lee Marlohe, it was a great introduction of a Eurasian Cambodian Chinese in the role of a Bond girl, even though her role was brief as she was shot to death by Silva  after a little apple shooting episode of William Tell in modern times.

Going to Skyfall,Scotland

Skyfall, a place in Scotland was to see one hell of a fire-fight between Bond,M and the villain of the pack Silva played to the hilt by Javier Bardem, met his death curiously via the tip and  blade of a cold steel knife.

Brief Introduction

As Albert Finney's character was wont to say, " If all else fails, use this!"

Money Penny

New Q

This movie has a lot of punch and fire power.

Dark and Broody!

Spanish Nemesis

Another great outing for Daniel Craig!

The New M

Julia Robert's Pretty Woman-The Best!

Wicked Fun

It has to be. This is Julia Robert's finest.

Even though she was honoured with the Oscar for for Erin Bronkovitch.

Joy of Love

This fairy tale of a movie starring this wickedly cheeky prostitute with the widest grin this side of Hollywood;  and the ever dapper debonair Richard Gere with his youthful looks is a drop dead movie of romantic love at its best.

Imagine, a plot of a  financial wizard meeting a part-time call girl and it can come out so entertaining.

Breaking the taboo!

Live through the pretentiousness to true blooming love in Rodeo Drive and Hollywood with a glimpse of San Francisco.

The treatment of the subject is great and tells us that dreams do come true for those who choose to be happy, irrespective of their circumstances.

Classy Coutore

The taboo, 'I do not kiss on the lips" has been forgotten when true love comes about.

Enjoy the intro song of King of Wishful Thinking and that pounding head-turning number, " Pretty Woman".

Pretty Woman on the Move!

Julia Roberts has got it made, encapsulated forever in this beautiful ageless movie.

See it again and again.

Jokes To get You By....

We Do Deserve Them!

These are gems of the best chucklers around any time.

Enjoy:

I am reminded of a joke. What happens if a politician drowns in a river?  That is pollution.

 What happens if all of them drown?  That is solution!!!

We hang the petty thieves and appoint the great ones to public office.
~Aesop, Greek slave & fable author 

Those who are too smart to engage in politics are punished by being governed by those who are dumber.
~Plato, ancient Greek Philosopher

We Put Them There

 Politicians are the same all over. They promise to build a bridge even where there is no river.

~Nikita Khrushchev, Russian Soviet politician

When I was a boy I was told that anybody could become President; I'm beginning to believe it.
~Quoted in 'Clarence Darrow for the Defense' by Irving Stone.

Politicians are people who, when they see light at the end of the tunnel, go out and buy some more tunnel.
~John Quinton, American actor/writer

Politics is the gentle art of getting votes from the poor and campaign funds from the rich, by promising to protect each from the other.
~Oscar Ameringer, "the Mark Twain of American Socialism."

The Democrats are the party that says government will make you smarter, taller, richer, and remove the crabgrass on your lawn.

AND......................
The Republicans are the party that says government doesn't work and then they get elected and prove it.
~P.J. O'Rourke, American comedian

I offered my opponents a deal: "if they stop telling lies about me, I will stop telling the truth about them".
~Adlai Stevenson, campaign speech, 1952..

A politician is a fellow who will lay down your life for his country.
~Texas Guinan. 19th century American businessman

I have come to the conclusion that politics is too serious a matter to be left to the politicians.
~Charles de Gaulle, French general & politician

Instead of giving a politician the keys to the city, it might be better to change the locks.
~Doug Larson (English middle-distance runner who won gold medals at the 1924 Olympic Games in Paris, 1902-1981)

The problem with political jokes is they get elected.

~ Variously attributed to Will Rogers and George Bernard Shaw

Finally on the just concluded Obama-Mit Romney, a snub at Mitt Romney.

At Least He had Staying Power

Did you laughed out loud?

Andre Rieu: High in Heidelberg

Younger days with Marjorie

Andre brought his concert to the university city of Heidelberg.

Old charm-definitely romantic.

Charming at 60

With a full entourage and guest performers, Andre captivated the city folks with his tremendous performance that one will not really forget for a really,really long time.

Old Charm of Heidelberg

Built upon a concept of Marjorie, his wife, Andre toured most of Germany as well to other countries such as Brazil and Australia.

Beguiling turrets and spires

This well known Waltz King of Europe can really take the hearts of the ladies of Europe away.

Versatile and talented Manoe Konings

He really plays one mean Blue Danube!

Alvin-The Aftermath of the Sex Videos

Love or lust?

Well, it was fun while it lasted for both Alvin and Vivian.

While Vivian faced uncertain future from family sanctions, Alvin got his judgment call from the NUS.

They had given him a the right to be heard and he has given his arguments.

The verdict?

Not too bad.

He call still continue college life using his own expenses.

The down-side?

His scholarship has been withdrawn.

So the question of exhibiting on the internet blog: Was it worth it?

Andre Rieu- The Magic of Maastricht

Sparks of Musical Magic!

You must believe. This man practically spins magic through classical music.

Andre Rieu, the genius of a Dutch maestro conductor has done it again, this time in Maastricht in Germany.

Splendorous!

Not as elaborate as his concert in Vienna, the people here enjoyed the music and participated in the delights of the magical moments of the concert.

Charlotte Hawkins

Along with his entourage is the Patin Tenor, Clara from Brazil, the Australian lady and Charlotte Hawkins.

There were some slapstick but the concert as a whole was worth every moment.

Patin Tenor do their Stuff!

I have just watched Andre Rieu Gala in Netherlands in 2009.

Just as great!

Maastricht

If music is the song of love,play on, says the bard.