November 01, 2012

Equaliser,Re-equaliser and Stabiliser

Looking for God
Just a train of thoughts.

The world is unkind.

So, we seek an equaliser to ensure there is justice for us.

We seek God.

We then find peace.

Satanic reversal?
Once that takes place, the dark forces will play the  re-equaliser  role to put us back to square one so you will suffer again. You called these adverse forces, challenges.

Ending it all for peace?
So, you pray again for a stabiliser.

So, will God triumph over Evil?

Ponder in faith.

My Failed Investments; Hopefully So Far

Poor Reading?
It is not that you have read the signals wrong.

They were generally right.

Timing was important.

Then there were the authorities who screw us up plenty. Particularly too rich valuation for IPOs.

Politics also overshadowed the potential of shares.

To date, these constitute my bad investments.

Astro

-screwed royally by the authorities who allowed cornerstone to sell on Day 1 and over-rich valuation to please the owner-seller. Loss from IPO and buying in the market.

UOA Development

Over-rich valuation. loss from IPO.

Adventa

Lost because of a fire in the factory.

Berjaya Land

Mainly because of politics as they could not develop the new Racing Complex in Sepang.

Bumi Armada

Over-rich valuation allowed by the authorities

Eita

No market support

Genting

Bad investment in the USA and fined in Singapore

JAKS

Politics mainly

KUB

Political counter turned sour.

Maybulk

Poor shipping industry

Pentamaster

My mistake

Proton

Bought too high

Rexit

Listened to too much market rumour

TH Heavy Engineering

Speculative counter which is not performing

Petron

Bought too high

KPS

Victim of politics

UNICO-DESA - Is It worth a Gambit?

Good or Bad Issue? Timing is Important
Unico-Desa Plantations is offering current shareholders a distribution in specie of 1 share of ELK-Desa  Resources Bhd (ELKD) for every one Unico-Desa shares held on 19 November 2012.

To ensure your entitlement, you have to buy this share before 13 November as it exed all on 14 November.

Also there will be an offer for sale on a pro-rata basis of ELKD. 

So if you have 1,000 units then you will get a rights of another 1000 units of ELKD.

A Commodity Going Down in Price
Let's do our maths.

The current price is RM 1.28. So you have to pay RM 1,280.00 + RM 31.00 to purchase 1,000 units from the market. This works out to RM 1,311.00.

But you get 100 units of free ELKD shares in specie out of the distribution  exercise.

I would not know how much the price of Unico-Desa will go down because of this distribution of the new ELKD shares.

But we know the value of ELKD is RM 116.00

So, a possibility will be Unico-Desa shares will readjust downwards to RM 1.16

So, in real terms, there is a compensation of 100 units of ELKD for the loss of  12 sen from the price of Unico-Desa.

No gain and no loss.

So, Unico's price will re-adjust downwards  to RM 1.17 - RM 1.18 after it goes ex.

Next you buy each unit of ELKD for RM 1.16.

You do not know whether there will be a premium  with this bad market after that bad Astro listing and the current poor oil palm commodity prices.

Fruiting or Rotting Fruits?
If I read it right,there is no premium to be got.

You may even get a better price by buying its option papers or when it goes into 'dip mode' with the deluge of  ELKD shares when it lists.

Verdict: No go!

AES-MCA gets Friendly Fire

Benefiting RM 16 from each summon!
Against the onslaught by the PR Opposition against the AES that it was a rip-off of the first order to rob motorists blind, even UMNO  members are are slowly breaking ranks to ask for the deferment and review of the Automatic Enforcement System (AES).

Rationality Reigns
Khairy Jamaluddin, the UMNO Youth leader is blatantly clear on his stand while Bung Mokhtar Radin has his reasons, citing the looming elections may pit the voters against the BN.

Right this time;Wrong Reason
To make matters worse, Mahfoz Omar of PAS has arrayed more than 100 lawyers to fight for any members of the public who refuses to pay the fines.

Today, Kong even refused to answer question on AES in Parliament, dumbfounding the Opposition MPs.

Aisay! Trapped by his own AES
Looks like MCA is slowly going into attrition mode and will implode shortly.

What will PM Najib do now?