January 27, 2013

Najib Razak-The Final Outing?

The Devils Within; the Enemy Without
It does not matter what dates are being speculated or set finally for the dissolution of Parliament or when will the 13th GE be held.

The writings could possibly be on the wall in plain sight for all to see.

So, with all the negative vibes surrounding BN's chances of coming in better than 2008 dissipating, what would you think Premier Najib would do?

Let us assume you are in Najib's shoes- what is your best strategy out?

There is that huge opposition out there showing more resilience despite some fall-outs. They have mended fences and are showing solidarity 60 days before the impending elections.

Then there is that 'potential cloak and dagger agenda ' within UMNO particularly as factions jockey to get  ahead of each other. The Premier, is very much aware of these people- his Brutuses and Nemesis-though the public can only speculate.

The best strategy is to go all out on a personal basis-a one man army driving the BN. So, we see Najib-- Obama-like-- moving like a whirlwind to touch base with the people almost everywhere his energy can bring him.

The goodies have been announced and some have been disbursed.

Next, choose only the candidates who are above board and have shown loyalty. The more new faces especially professionals would be better.

The MACC would be seen as an independent filter. Second and third-echelon leaders  will possibly be decimated from candidature; thus depriving  anti-Najib faction national leaders who will be given seats but with the ground being cut away from them.

By doing this, perhaps the sitting Premier can have a better chance of retaining the Federal Government and yet keep " the wolves at bay' in his party until the next UMNO elections.

The 13th GE-Optics, Optimism and Damage Control

Re-balancing act?
As the 13th GE looms on the horizon, the two opposing fronts are quick to promote optics and optimism about their success in the polls scheduled to be held by the end of March or early April.

Let us look at the BN side.

The goodies are being distributed until March. School vouchers for students have started and BRIM pay-outs are scheduled in February possibly just after the Chinese New Year. Somewhere in mid-March Form 6 and college students will receive their book vouchers.

Timing is everything now for BN until the dissolution of Parliament. The legal declaration of Hindraf  has also been so well timed just before the holy observance of Taipusam. 

Solidarity may win the Day!
On the obverse, the PKR is doing their best at damage control. The Allah issue with PAS changing their hues recently is thorny and pow-wow behind close door must have already taken place. The Kedah government debacle of  trying to restrict Chinese New Year lady performers from singing and dancing  at shopping complexes is a bugbear which  like a red herring,was silently shoved under the carpet. The sudden removal of  loose canon Nasaruddin from the Syura Council may appease some quarters in PKR particularly Anwar and the DAP.

While BN apparently is showing optimism through DPM Muhyiddin and Ahmad Maslan  in taking over Selangor and winning back 2/3 of Parliament easily which as usual is highlighted in the mainstream media, unforeseen incidents involving the police as well as the fall-out of the RCI in Sabah is causing some nervousness among BN component parties. The silence of the component parties on the Arabic word for God as well as the Bible Burning fete is not going well among the middle ground.

With FGV shares falling to be supported by pension funds from time to time, the government will certainly feel  the difficulty  of convincing the younger Felda  generation to vote for it en-bloc as in the past.

Today, the most classic optic is Tok Guru Nik Aziz spending his birthday with Karpal Singh in Penang. This is a message that things are now going to be better where PAS extremists and loose canons will be put to pasture. Also there is a possibility that there could be last minute seat talks between PAS and DAP before the all-out A-OK sign is given by Anwar.

Up to now, the component parties of BN have yet to salvage their position. Precious time has been lost and the last nail would have already being hammered deeply into their political coffins.  I think all of them have painted themselves politically into a corner. It is a cul-de-sac for them and a permanent sayonara at that!

Also, will Bersih storm into KL once more when the elections are call? Very unpredictable.

As the scales of the BN is seeking for a strong re-balance, the Sabah vote bank continues to be the RM 64,000 question.

Will it tip the scales for PKR with the slimmest minority to take Putrajaya?

We should know within 60 days.