Rocky Mountain High's Rocky Recovery Survey

Global economists-be watchful. Not all can be well in the engine of growth in the USA ,notwithstanding progress in the Asian economies of China and India and possibly, in Australia.

The Wall Street Journal says its latest forecasting survey of US economists shows a rocky road to recovery. It says the worst recession since the Great Depression has left a scorched landscape that will weigh on the labour market and the broader economy for years to come.

The 48 surveyed economists, not all of whom answer every question, expect the economy to bounce back from four quarters of contraction with 3.1% growth in gross domestic product at a seasonally adjusted annual rate in the just-ended third quarter. Expansion is seen continuing through the first half of 2010, though at a slower rate. But the massive downturn has left an open wound in the labour market that will take years to heal. On average, the economists don't expect unemployment to fall under 6% until 2013; unemployment in September hit 9.8%.

On average the economists expect the unemployment rate to peak at 10.2% next February. But even once the employment situation stops getting worse, economists expect recovery to come slowly. It took just 14 months for the unemployment rate to rise from 5.8% to its current level. On average, the economists say it will take nearly four years for the rate to drop below 6% again.

In the meantime, the unemployed will be loath to spend or borrow. They are less likely to move and are more likely to default on mortgages and loans.

The survey of economists shows they that more technical sectors are likely to yield the most jobs in years ahead. Asked to rank the sectors where job growth is most likely, some 37% of economists listed education and health services as their first choice. Another 38% listed it as their second. Professional and business services were also ranked highly with a third of economists putting the sector as their first choice and a quarter listed it as their second choice. Jobs that required less education did far worse. Just 12% said construction was most likely to create jobs in the future. Only 7% said manufacturing.

Also on Thursday, a survey issued by the Springboard Project, an independent commission under the chairmanship of William Green, head of the consultancy firm Accenture, which was promoted by the Business Roundtable, an association of chief executive officers of the largest American companies, reported that about 65% of employers said they expect all or most of their hires will be people with an associate’s degree or higher.

More than half of the 601 managers and executives surveyed said more technical skills, higher degrees and better qualifications would be a requirement required over the next four years.

Half of employers say they currently have such a serious gap between their needs and employees’ skills that it affects their productivity.

The survey says workers also understand the value of training but, like employers, are confronting barriers to making it a reality.

Sixty-two percent of workers say a convincing reason to pursue training is that the future economy will be extremely demanding, and if their skills are not up to date, someone will pass them by. However, a large proportion of workers are not pursuing training and education because of practical obstacles. Workers cite cost, convenience, and lack of reliable information on what type of training will lead to a job or higher salaries as the top three factors preventing them from enhancing their skills and improving their education.

P.S.: For Malaysians, it pays to take note that retraining for the right skills possibly at the Master's level will indeed be an asset to help you get the better jobs.

If You have A Mother,read on.........

This is one story that everyone who has a mother should read.

Profoundly heartbreaking, if there was one.

After 21 years of marriage, my wife wanted me to take another woman out to dinner and a movie. She said, "I love you but I know this other woman loves you and would love to spend some time with you."

The other woman that my wife wanted me to visit was my mother,who has been a widow for 19 years,but the demands of my work and my three children had made it possible to visit her only occasionally.

That night I called to invite her to go out for dinner and a movie.

'What's wrong, are you well,' she asked?

My mother is the type of woman who suspects that a late night call or a surprise invitation is a sign of bad news.

'I thought that it would be pleasant to be with you,' I responded.'Just the two of us.'She thought about it for a moment, and then said, 'I would like that very much.'

That Friday after work, as I drove over to pick her up I was a bit nervous.

When I arrived at her house, I noticed that she too seemed to be nervous about our date.

She waited in the door with her coat on.

She had curled her hair and was wearing the dress that she had worn to celebrate her last wedding anniversary.

She smiled from a face that was as radiant as an angel.

'I told my friends that I was going to go out with my son, and they were impressed,'
she said, as she got into the car.

'They can't wait to hear about our meeting'.

We went to a restaurant that, although not elegant, was very nice and cozy.

My mother took my arm as if she were the First Lady.

After we sat down, I had to read the menu. Large print.

Half way through the entries, I lifted my eyes and saw Mom sitting there staring at me.

A nostalgic smile was on her lips.

'It was I who used to have to read the menu when you were small,'she said.

'Then it's time that you relax and let me return the favour,'I responded.

During the dinner, we had an agreeable conversation, nothing extra-ordinary,
but catching up on recent events of each other's life.

We talked so much that we missed the movie.

As we arrived at her house later,she said, 'I'll go out with you again, but only if you let me invite you.'

I agreed.

'How was your dinner date?' asked my wife when I got home.

'Very mice. Much more so than I could have imagined,' I answered.

A few days later, my mother died of a massive heart attack.

It happened so suddenly that I didn't have time to do anything for her.

Some time later, I received an envelope with a copy of a restaurant receipt
from the same place Mother and I had dined.

An attached note said:

'I paid this bill in advance.

I wasn't sure that I could be there;

But nevertheless, I paid for two plates–One for you and the other for your wife.

You will never know what that night meant for me.

I love you, my son.'

At that moment, I understood the importance of saying in time:'I Love you!'
and to give our loved ones the time that they deserve.

Nothing in Life is more important than God and your family.

Give them the time they deserve, because these things cannot be put off till 'Some other time.'

Tun Mahathir: Charity begins in your Heart!

I have taken liberty to take this from my ex-prime Minister's blog [http://chedet.co.cc/chedetblog/2009/10/malaysian-industries.html.] I think it is a very meaningful piece on how love for one's country should be extended to one's own products.

Tun Dr. Mahathir wrote like this.

1. I feel sorry for Malaysian manufacturers. They find it difficult and sometimes impossible to market their products in the country because somehow Malaysians, including the Government and its agencies cannot believe that Malaysian products are as good, if not better than imported goods.

2. When Malaysian products cannot be sold at home, it becomes almost impossible to convince foreign buyers to buy them. The question that foreigners often ask is whether Malaysians especially the Government have bought them.

3. Despite this failure to market Malaysian products locally, some have still managed to be marketed abroad. And some have been very successful.

4. These Malaysians are not asking for protection or even favours. All they want is to be properly evaluated against foreign competitors when they make bids. But somehow they seem to fail always.

5. There are excuses of course. The foreign suppliers have been supplying for years and years. They just cannot be dropped.

6. Even when the products have been well accepted abroad, the Government and its agencies cannot be convinced.

7. The Government wants to be transparent. Perhaps if awards of contracts are published just as offers of contracts are, then the public and the local businessmen would know who gets what, how many times and for how long. The contract process should also be made known. If contracts are to be for five years then we should know why contracts are given for longer periods.

8. Then Malaysians would know why they have been failing all these while. They would then be able to take necessary steps to become competitive. In fact other foreign suppliers too can take corrective action.

9. At the moment we can read the advertisements on new projects up for tender. But who wins the tender is not publicised.

10. An open Government keen to be transparent should do this. That it was never done before is no reason it cannot be done now. Previously no one promised to be transparent. But now we all hear about transparency.

11. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is not coming in as much as before. We cannot compete with China or Vietnam, not even with Thailand and Indonesia. While we should continue to promote FDI, we should also help the local investors. We should remember that their earnings stay in the country, much more than the earnings of foreign owned industries.

12. If we help them our industries can become world players. At the moment we do not have our Sony or Hitachi or Samsung or Hyundai. We have the technical capacities for truly Malaysian products and companies to be as well-known as those of Japan and Korea.

13. We merely need a little boost from Malaysians, particularly from the Government and its numerous agencies and companies.

14. I hesitate to write this article because I fear that those in charge would make life even more difficult for Malaysian companies, presuming that they had complained to me.

15. But what I say here is public knowledge. We should really be helping ourselves.

To Dear Tun, as you rightly put it, many Malaysian companies have found jobs overseas. YTL and Kuok Brothers for instance. Lim Kok Wing has been franchising his outfits in so many nations today. It is hard to really catch up with him.

I think some of the efforts that Tun started like the formation of the Malaysian sogoshosa should be given new blood again by the current Najib government.

No More Albatrosses at the necks of both Gentings and Genting M

In a news release this morning(9 Oct),Genting Berhad indicated its plans to raise up to RM1.6 billion from a 15-year medium term notes programme to fund expansion, refinancing and cover working capital needs.

It may use part of it to refinance a loan taken by Genting to subscribe for its portion or unsubscribed shares of a rights issue by Genting Singapore,it told Bursa Malaysia yesterday.

For this, it has hired CIMB and HSBC Bank Malaysia Bhd as Joint Principal Advisers, Joint Lead Arrangers and Joint Book-runners.

So, with this the undue worries that Genting Malaysia will be taxed through a inter-company loan to indirectly refinance the loan to the right subscriptions to Genting Singapore is put to a rest.

With that, the market is all clear of doubts which will allow Genting and Genting Malaysia to move upwards without albatrosses at their necks!

Dark Statistics Continue to haunt Malaysia!

It pays for Malaysian economic managers to continue to put their ears to the ground as far as the economy goes.

Reuters has reported on 8 October 2009 that Malaysia’s exports in August fell dismally by a larger-than-expected 19.8 per cent from a year ago, government data showed today. Economists polled by Reuters had expected a fall of 17.4 per cent.

“While the global electronics sector is showing recovery signals, a rebound could very well be built on short-term foundations of inventory restocking. We remain conservative in our exports outlook and the latest trade data further affirms that.

"Month-on-month figures saw some correction from the previous positive pace. On monetary policy, Bank Negara is likely to keep to the status quo in the near term given the stage of economic recovery,” said Joanna Tan, an economist with Forecast Pte Ltd.

“While the fall in export value of commodities continue to be the main drag on Malaysian exports, electronics exports should also continue to be lackluster,” said Alvin Liew of Standard Chartered.

“While the export decline is likely to continue easing in late 2009, Malaysia’s manufacturing sector may not be out of the woods yet, especially if the global recovery is prolonged and shallow. A more worrying aspect of sharply declining imports is that they imply that companies may be delaying capital investments.

"This would reduce the capacity of Malaysia’s manufacturing sector in the medium and long term, preventing it from reaping the benefits of an eventual recovery in demand,” he added.

Irvin Seah of DBS said, “I think this is certainly a disappointment and a sober reminder that the path of recovery is never a smooth one and it will be bumpy. Going forward, as long as the longer term trend is upward then there shouldn’t be a big concern.”

Anyway,let the great economists think their way out of their little corner.