economic crisis.
"Exports staged a quick rebound, helped by inventory restocking and the increasing importance of intra-Asian trade," he said in the latest Asian Economics Quarterly last Friday.
Wiranto said private consumption continued to support growth, adding a complementing exports.
HSBC revised its projections, expecting the Malaysian economy to grow by 5.1 per cent in 2011 from 7.1 per cent in 2010 before slowing to a 4.9 per cent growth in 2012.
He said although the unexpectedly low spending in the third quarter of 2010 turned out to be the primary culprit behind the downside surprise, he does not expect the drag to persist for too long.
"Investment activities are moving along quite steadily. However, they are not yet expanding as much as the government would desire."
In terms of investment growth, HSBC has projected it to grow by 8.9 per cent year-on-year in 2010 and 6.5 per cent in 2011.
On the monetary policy front, Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) stands out as one of the few Asian central banks not only to tighten, but to do so early on during the upcycle.
"The space BNM has created for itself with its normalisation drive should allow the central bank to pause during the first half of 2011, before resuming its normalisation drive," Wiranto said, adding that BNM can focus more readily on risks to growth over the near term.
It expects BNM to hike the Overnight Policy Rate by 25 basis points to 3 per cent in the third quarter and another 25 basis points to 3.25 per cent by the end of the year.
Meanwhile, the bank's Asia Pacific team, led by chief economists Qu Hongbin and Frederic Neumann, says growth in the region in 2011 should hold up nicely, leading them to tweak up the numbers.
"But, it's no longer just about Asian giants. China and India have clearly led the pack. But the real trend to watch is in Asian smaller economies, where the continued boom in trade is having the biggest impact."
The biggest growth upgrades, in fact, have come in Hong Kong, South Korea, Singapore, and the Philippines.
Thailand, for example, has bounced back impressively, while Indonesia will push growth up another notch.
But the impressive run by Asian economies (pumped by low rates and foreign liquidity) have "dire consequences", they warned.
Central bankers need to worry about rising inflation pressures, asset bubbles and excessive investment.
"All three symptoms are beginning to show in Asia. Still, there is sufficient time to delve into a diet of monetary tightening and avoid the pitfalls that have so often plagued this region before."
They said 2011 will be the year when the path is being laid: with growth strong and imbalances still manageable, policymakers had better practise prevention and wean economies off their artificial support.
Asia needs to tighten monetary policy rapidly and if it fails at this, it would need to brace for a harsh landing.
"The global output gap, in short, may help to contain Asian inflation somewhat, even if the region itself may increasingly be responsible for the universal climb in the price of major commodities," they added.
So, do you believe in all these analysis and predictions or are they mere humbug that any Tom, Dick and Harry can also predict?
