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| Election Fever 2013 |
While some have speculated that PM will announce the dissolution of Parliament just after Chap Goh Mei which will allow the 13th GE to take place in March;there are others who are playing seers, and reading that it will be after 29 April with a caretaker government at the helm to do the day-to-day running of the government possibly comprising members from BN, the civil service and may carry some Opposition members as well as Independents.
Be that as it may, the cocktail of gifts from the BN will not ebb. From now until March, BRIM2, RM1,500 for bachelors earning RM1,800, smart phones rebates,smart cards,student cash of RM 100 to parents and student book vouchers will all be adding impetus to the local economy.
On top of that, on the policy side, the BN is friendly towards the Christian quarters giving computers and cash-in-aid as well as allowing unfettered visits to Israel.
On the other end, Pakatan Rakyat is having fund-raising dinners to develop a small war-chest. While they have less big fund donors, they have ample free voluntary service to assist them as elections approaches from Bersih-trained fraud watchdogs to campaigners from disgruntled students of the campuses.
Both sides have unresolved issues. So, we give them a draw here.
BN's bugbears seems to emanate from the alternative media and intra-UMNO conspiracy theories featuring the main players of Mahathir,Mukriz,Muhyideen as well as 'black hole' issues like the Japanese compensation to the relatives of the Death Railway in Siam, the GDP-National Debt issue, The Genneva bungle by BNM, the Deepak-Bala revelations, the Altantuya death mystery and the so-called rampant MINDEF corruption.
On the other hand, Pakatan is hemmed in by political-religious issues from hudud to the use of the word for God as well as inter Pakatan party issues especially on seat allocation.
Whatever may happen on election day, expect very close fights in certain constituencies which may see the fortunes of both sides wane and ebb.
As an observer, I just looked at the weakness of the weakest parties on each side.
As they say, the chain is as strong as its weakest link.
So here goes:
BN parties:
MCA-have exhibited morality issues, poor image to the community and in-fighting for seats as the elections approach. Many MCA leaders particularly the Ministers and Deputy Ministers have bungled. Best scenario
they can win some seats with somewhat clean efficient leaders. Case-in-point will be Ong Tee Kiat who has the ears of the PM. The Talam issue will sink Chua Jr. As for Pahang, the ear-cutting episode may sink Liow Tiong Lai in Bentong. MCA Wanita Ng Yen Yen will likely fell in Raub given the Raub mining issue and the Facebook debacle. Maybe, Kho Chong Ha may sail in at Sitiawan constituency because of block voting from the Hock Chiew community . We Ka Siong will have an uphill in Kluang while Chor may also go down in Kota Setar.
Except for the Cameron Highland seat, MIC will be obliterated. Even Samy Velu who wants to re-contest in Sungai Siput will be yesterday's man and taste defeat once more.
Gerakan-gone to ashes.
PPP- writing an early obituary
UMNO-dissensions since 2004 GE elections and the failure to change the leadership since the hey-days of Mahathir has created schisms in UMNO. Today, UMNO is crumbling because of old guards that refused to go, second echelons who are trying to remove the top layer and the younger set who wants to remove both the top and second echelons. The perception problems that projects only go to a cabal of choice and connected people will be tested as technology, the alternative media, education and semi-urbanisation crushed the effects of gerrymandering which worked so well in the past. Even Felda and Felcra stations are no longer safe anymore with the younger generation of settlers being very vocal against the government.
As for Pakatan:
DAP is one solid bulwark. They should trump their competition. Zairil will now stand for an MP seat. I am not sure the one person-one seat suggestion is going to be implemented on a blanket basis or selectively. I see them winning urban and semi-urban seats in Sabah, Sarawak, Pahang and Johor.In Penang and Perak, they will be a shoo-in. Expect victories too in Negeri Sembilan.
PAS-though they have created controversies particularly from Little Napoleans and the extreme quarters,Hadi, Tok Guru, Khalid Samad, Dzulkipli and Mat Sabu have been able to clear off the thorny issues of Hudud, the use of the Islamic word for god and the tricky issues with DAP. Expect PAS to retain Kelantan and Kedah with in-roads into Pahang,Johor, Perlis and Seberang Perai in Penang. There is also a possibility of winning Trengganu and Perak for PAS candidates lead by the ex-PAS MB. I do not see easy victories in Sabah and Sarawak for PAS.
The weakest link in Pakatan is Keadilan. The whip is Anwar Ibrahim but candidates can be disparate and can involve in horse-trading when they see better chances to switch sides. Most can be bought for cash. Unless Anwar can really vet the candidates, expect more friendly independents appearing on the horizon after the 13 GE. I do not see much victory in Sabah and Sarawak for Keadilan except for Baru Bian and a few of his stronger lieutenants.
I do see the apologetic stance of Najib asking for a second chance for BN. Will the people give him that after all the "Cry Wolf" episodes of the past.
If anything that can sink BN, it is its own weakness and not the strength of Pakatan. Case in point-Trengganu,Negeri Sembilan and Perlis.
Best scenario-Pakatan will take Putrajaya on happenstance.
But then,what do I know?
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