Johore-PR's Fervent Wish-wash?

Jewel in the Crown of BN

PR has been gunning for this jewel in the crown.

Johore has 3 million population where 60% are Malays. There are 21 state constituencies and 74 Felda stations.

They did not do well in the last GE.

A Balancing Act in 13th GE?

While the urban states saw keen fight between the DAP  and the MCA-Gerakan front, semi-urban constituencies were tough nuts for both the Keadilan and PAS contenders.

For these areas, the more important aspects are:

• Did the PR made inroads by reducing the majority votes of the UMNO candidates during the last GE?

• How many areas which were rural has become suburban since the last GE?

• How many youths are there in these hot marginal seats won by UMNO? 

These three aspects will be the key indicators whether PR can take away UMNO seats particularly in the Felda stations.

Mission Partial Impossible?

PR's prayer.

Get 35% of the current UMNO voters to swing over especially youths. Old Felda pioneers may still stick to their loyalty mindset for UMNO though some may be persuaded by their children to shift side as they are exposed to the internet stories of woe and ignominy that is driving down UMNO and MCA. Also the ubiquitous cellular phone with its SMS  capability and the portable DVD machines and DVDs can again be used menacingly against the BN as it has been used in the last GE by varsity students who encamped on the FELDA stations and traditional kampungs .

The PR is very confident of winning urban seats as MCA and Gerakan are already on the way to their political mortuary not because of the strength of DAP but because of the implosions and would-be sabotages that will be taking place against their candidates as the polls gets near.

PAS seems to be exceptionally positive about  having a good fight in 50%-50 % areas of Malay-non-Malay characteristics or even in 60%-40% of similar type constituencies. They, however, see FELDA and FELCRA areas are quite insurmountable because of the old guards or guardians of UMNO that have control over these areas. These are especially obliged to UMNO for the many goodies they have received for a long while sans the current political developments and controversies surrounding UMNO party leaders in Kuala Lumpur.

PAS is hoping that the younger generation, particularly the second and third generations in these insulated and closeted constituencies will help to overcome the "bridge too far" to help PAS and Keadilan take over these constituencies on their march to Putrajaya. Are these expectations valid?

BN diehards and Swing Voters

The average PAS commentator does not see that rosy picture. They are still pessimistic of FELDA and FELCRA stations. To them accessing these stations physically has been difficult in the past because of the stranglehold held there by UMNO loyalists.

For them strategically, it is best to place more hope on the traditional kampong voters working on their small-holdings, padilands and dusuns.

Still they are hopeful for an upset to take place in Johore in their favour this time around.

While the PR is hopeful that  70% support from the state’s Chinese community which make up over 35 per cent of Johor’s population will likely vote Opposition, it is interesting to note that UMNO itself  is not too confident of their BN partners breezing into victory in the urban constituencies.

The last count:

25 out of 26 Parliament seats went to BN.

50 out of 56 State Assembly seats went to the BN.

Can PR do magic this time around?

Where are the three witches that predicted for Macbeth and Banquo?

Can we enlist them to crystal-ball for PR?