The Hulu Selangor Wind-Vane

April 17 is nomination day for the Hulu Selangor Parliamentary by-election.

Where will the wind blow this time around?

While Pakatan Rakyat keeps its card close to its chest who their candidate will likely be, the Barisan Nasional has apparently stuck to their mindset to allocate MIC that seat, inspite of the hullabaloo created by Mohammed Taib's faction to put him up as the candidate.

My reading is Pakatan Rakyat will field a Malay candidate to replace the ex-Malay MP who passed on.

So how are the cards arrayed this time?

Hulu Selangor is basically a Malay majority area with a splattering of Chinese and Indian voters. There are some 2,000 new voters added to the roll.

Let us look at the issues.

This time around the Chinese looks  like they may still be voting for the Pakatan candidate, come fire or high water. It would not be a matter is it is a Malay candidate or even an Indian candidate. I think they are somewhat contented with what Pakatan has done for them despite the troubles faced by Pakatan Rakyat lately. Also, MCA seems to be just as disunited today as before while Gerakan's force and influence is no longer there politically. As for the PPP, they will not be there at most times as they detest MIC.

The Indian votes is now more illusive. In March 2008,we have the Hindraf factor causing an avalanche of votes to fell out from Barisan Nasional especially in areas where the Indian votes could play a 'kingmaker' difference. If the candidate is Palanivel,he may be lucky to secure the same number of pro-Samy voters to his side. The Subra faction will not be with him. They could possibly be voting against him as he is seen as a proxy for their nemesis,Samy Velu. If that is the scenario, and since Hindraf factions are not likely to be involved, Palinevel may not get the full Indian support once more.He has to work double hard as many constituents have complained he has hardly been to their area even when he was their MP.

What could be worse this time is the possible split of the Indian votes when individual Indian politicians rise up to challenge the MIC candidate. So, if Barisan Nasional expects these ex-Hindraf voters to come over to their side, it may not be so; as these votes are  fragmented in this new manner.

Now, let us look at the majority Malay vote. This is really a very difficult poser. Will they vote for Pakatan since their last MP only won by a marginal vote majority? Also, this is a 100% Barisan Nasional area in terms of state assembly seats.

When just as many things has 'downsided' both the Barisan Nasional and the Pakatan Rakyat since March 2008, how will the Malays vote this time around?

Will Perkasa be coming down on the ground as well? This will possibly eliminate more non-Malay voters.

What about the new 2000 voters? If they are young voters,how will they vote?

We have seen the Barisan Nasional machinery working at full blast with their project giving strategy. This worked well in the past. However, this time around it has been welcomed by the Pakatan Rakyat as it means more development fund is flowing into Selangor which they controlled.

So,is this project doling strategy still effective to secure needed votes for the Barisan Nasional or has it been rendered ineffective as Barisan no longer controls the state government?

These are the issues in this by-election.

I will discuss more on this in my subsequent postings.