Pakatan Rakyat has a freer hand in nominating a suitable candidate for Hulu Selangor. It is a Keadilan seat in the first place after the demise of the former incumbent. So, no issue on seat wrestling actually took place.
Not so for the Barisan Nasional. Najib had a difficult time here. His hands were tied. In his hand was the MIC card and he must play that card as it was the former MIC seat in the 2008 General Elections. As much as he wanted his UMNO stalwart to stand there just like in Bagan Pinang, he had no choice this time but to be firm and to tell his detractors to desist in their action to nominate Mohamed Taib, a more popular face and quite a shoo-in, I must say.
Demographically, playing by numbers, a Malay candidate will in all probability win the seat as it was akin to 'taking a lollipop from a baby'.
If BN puts in Palinevel, it is courting trouble as the younger voters just cannot relate with MIC politics and the old 'dinosuar of a candidate'. Palinevel will win the votes of the staunch BN voters particularly BN party office bearers and their families. All the other voters will be voting on different premises.
Let us look at the Chinese voters. BN almost lost Kuala Kubu Bharu to the Pakatan Rakyat in the March 2008 General Elections when MCA was at least perceived not to be disunited. This time around, MCA is shattered beyond any redemption. They cannot pull the carpet below the feet of Pakatan Rakyat. Do not depend on MCA. The same goes for Gerakan and the PPP.
With so much dissension in the BN camp from now until polling day on 25th April, it is hard not to put our money on Zaid. DPM Muhyiddin and Nazri Aziz as usual makes statements that are distasteful to the non-Malays. Now all the religions are offended because of the decision of Cabinet to set up the Interfaith Panel to be under the supervision of Koh Tsu Khoon. Religion can be an important factor in the Hulu Selangor Election. A couple of sermons and the congregation can vote in a different manner. The timing of the Teoh Beng Hock trial scheduled to go on the 20th of April and the contagious issue of Porthip's inability to come to Malaysia to give her professional opinion in the trial because of 'pressure', will work against the BN as well.
MIC will be disunited if Mugilan and Kamalanathan is selected by PM to be the candidate. That will definitely offend the sitting MIC President and the President-in-waiting. A few independent Indian candidates ,if they are from Hindrag or Hindraf-supported, will further cut BN's Indian ground support.
Development politics which used to work pretty well in the past will not work as well now. This is because land is a state matter and PR is in the saddle here. So giving projects that cannot take off will be difficult. Thus far the BN had promised millions in development projects while Pakatan Rakyat has merely promised a couple of hundred thousands and the very high profiled giving of land titles to squatters and the Chinese in Kuala Kubu Bharu.
It looks like the BN will be the underdog here. We will know by midnight on that fateful day.
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