David Tan wrote this article in the Malaysian Insider today (21 December 2009).I append his article.
"Penang-based public-listed companies involved in the semiconductor, electronics and automated equipment manufacturing are mostly looking forward to a reasonably strong first quarter in 2010, which is seasonally a weak period for them.
The positive prognosis is based on indicators such as increased spending on worldwide semiconductor equipment, rising demand for LCDs, and integrated circuit (IC) chips.
The Japan Electronics and Information Technology Industries Association, in a recent report, forecast that global electronics sales could rise 5% to US$2.2 trillion in 2010.
Electronics and communications equipment, in terms of dollars shipped, would grow for the first time in three years due to spending by various governments, the report said.
“The tremendous spending by various governments, including US$586bil in China, US$224bil in Japan and US$800bil in the US, helped spur recovery in the electronics sector,” the report said.
Among those anticipating double-digit growth in sales volume in the first quarter next year compared with a year ago are GUH Holdings Bhd, Pentamaster Corp Bhd and P.I.E. Industrial Bhd.
GUH, a printed circuit board (PCB) manufacturing specialist based its projection on the orders received so far for its PCBs from Japanese and South Korean multinational corporations.
Managing director Datuk H’ng Bak Tee said that based on orders secured so far, the group’s monthly output of PCBs would return to over 200,000 sq m in the first quarter of 2010, against an average 140,000 sq m now.
“This is the level before the onset of the global economic crisis in the third quarter of 2008. For GUH, the drivers of growth are the LCD and light-emitting diode (LED) televisions.
“We will be manufacturing for the orders to be shipped out next spring and summer,” he said.
According to Texas-based research firm DisplaySearch, worldwide LCD television sales would increase by 17% to 149 million units in 2010.
“LG Electronics Inc plans to ship out 25 million LCD TVs in 2010, compared with 17 million in 2009, while Samsung aims to sell 10 million LED TVs in 2010, up from two million in 2009,” H’ng said.
Automated equipment manufacturing specialist Pentamaster expects inventory restocking among its customers to impact its sales volume for the first quarter.
Executive chairman C. B. Chuah said the fourth quarter of 2009 slowed slightly from the third quarter as the group’s MNC customers, mainly from the United States, Europe and Taiwan, exercised caution on their inventory.
“But in the first quarter of 2010, we expect them to restock their inventory with new automated test equipment and packaging and assembly equipment that support advanced processes such as wafer-level packaging, 3D processes, and DDR 3 SDRAM memory processes,” he said.
According to the US-based Gartner research house, worldwide spending on automated test and packaging and assembly equipment will rise by 59.7% and 52.8% to US$2.15bil and US$3.63bil respectively in 2010.
Seberang Prai-based electronics contract manufacturer P.I.E. also cited orders secured from United States, Europe, and Japan for its bullish outlook for the next quarter.
Growth would be driven by industrial electronics products such as control modules, components used in telecommunications and point-of-sales devices, and medical equipment.
“We are spending about RM5mil in the first quarter of 2010 to upgrade two production facilities in Seberang Jaya, which are now fully utilised, running on full shifts,” managing director Alvin Mui.
IC chips manufacturer Globetronics Technology Bhd expects a steady increase in volume for the first quarter of 2010, versus a year earlier. Group chief financial controller Ng Kok Choon said that even if production volume declined, it would be a slight fall compared with the final quarter of 2009.
The increased demand for PCs, mobile phones and solid state lighting industries would boost demand for IC chips, he said.
A recent Semiconductor Industry Association report forecast that global sales of semiconductor products would grow 10.2% to US$242bil next year and 8.4% to US$262bil in 2011. In 2009, global sales fell 11.6% to US$219.7bil.
Gartner recently projected that PC shipments would reach 333.6 million units in 2010, representing a 12.6% increase from the 2009 figures.
The value of PC shipments is expected to hit US$222.9bil, a 2.6% increase over 2009."
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