BNM: Rate Hike by 25 basis points on 13 May 2010

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) met today and raised the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) by 25 basis points to 2.50 percent. The floor and ceiling rates of the corridor for the OPR are correspondingly raised to 2.25 percent and 2.75 percent respectively.

The reason for this move?

This is what BNM has to say. Let us read its Monetary Statement.

" The global economy registered a stronger than expected recovery in the first quarter, underpinned by favourable growth performance in emerging market economies and some of the advanced economies. Policy initiatives and improvements in financial conditions have continued to support the economic recovery in many countries. While economic activity in the advanced economies has generally improved, growth in these economies is still expected to remain modest.

Considerable uncertainties remain due to heightened concerns over the sovereign debt problems in Europe and the expected diminishing effects of fiscal policy support. In the emerging market economies, in particular Asia, growth is expected to be stronger, supported by robust domestic demand and increased intra-regional trade.

In the domestic economy, the strong and broad-based growth of 10.1% in the first quarter affirms that economic recovery is firmly established. Going forward, growth will be supported by continued expansion in domestic demand and the improvement in external demand, especially from the region. However, despite this upside potential to growth, there are uncertainties arising from recent developments in the international financial and economic environment.

Domestic inflation recorded a modest increase during the first quarter and will continue to experience a gradual rise during the year, in line with broad-based improvements in economic activity and taking into account possible adjustments in administered prices. Although external factors, including rising global commodity and food prices, may exert some additional upward pressure on domestic prices, overall inflation is expected to remain moderate in 2010.

The MPC decided to adjust the OPR towards further normalisation of monetary conditions. At the new level of the OPR, the stance of monetary policy continues to remain accommodative and supportive of economic growth.

Bank Negara Malaysia
13 May 201"

So there you have it.

The Ascot Gamble

Berjaya Corp Bhd (BCB) has proposed to acquire a 70% stake in Ascot Sports Sdn Bhd (ASSB), a company owned by Tan Sri Vincent Tan, for RM525mil cash.

Tan is the largest shareholder of BCB by virtue of a 45.59% direct stake.

BCB said the acquisition would be partly funded by the issuance of up to RM614.45mil nominal value of 10-year 8% irredeemable convertible unsecured loan stocks (Iculs) on the basis of one RM1 nominal value of Iculs for every eight of the company's shares held.

The sale price is RM9.37 per share based on ASSB's  paid-up share capital of RM80mil comprising RM1 shares.

BCB said Tan will guarantee that the company would make a cumulative after-tax profit of at least RM375mil for the first three years of operations and had backed this with an offer to deposit RM81.25mil worth of listed securities.

AmInvestment Bank Bhd on behalf of BCB informed that ASSB recorded consolidated net liabilities of RM11.2mil and loss after tax of RM4.6mil for the financial year ended Dec 31, 2008.

BCB would also withhold RM125mil cash from the total consideration, which would mean that the initial consideration would be RM400mil.

The withheld cash would only be released annually upon achievement of profits proportionate to the guarantee.

The company said Tan would also undertake to subscribe to the portion of the Iculs entitled to him and his private companies, which would total at least RM400mil.

When contacted, Tan said this plan was 23 years in the making as the sports betting licence was first granted by the Government in 1987. “I waited 23 years to be able to finally launch this. I wish to emphasise that this is not a newly issued licence by the current administration,” he said.

“I'm glad that Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak is economically sound like Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad and understands economics. This licence will generate revenue to the company which, in turn, will help the Treasury particularly in these trying times,” Tan said.

According to a StarBiz report yesterday, ASSB regained the licence on Jan 13 with conditions including that it would only be allowed to operate in 200 of the 680 Sports Toto outlets in non-Muslim areas of major towns and online betting would not be allowed.

Ascot Sports had surrendered the licence in 1990, got it back in 2003 but was not allowed to operate a year later.

AmInvestment said ASSB proposed to commence operations in the second half of the year and would provide telephone betting services to those with registered accounts with the company.

More sports betting licences could eventually be granted by the Government with the reissue of the old licence to ASSB although analysts believe this was not in the horizon for now despite a recent statement by Deputy Finance Minister Datuk Dr Awang Adek Hussein.

A HwangDBS Vickers Research Sdn Bhd analyst believe there could be no further issuance of any more sports betting licence due to political sensitivity. “The Government may want to test the waters first by reissuing ASSB's licence, then see what's the reaction before issuing any more,” she added.

OSK Research Sdn Bhd analyst Keith Wee said in a report yesterday that talk of any new licences was premature over the immediate to medium-term.

“That said, we think that over the longer term, all the numbers forecast operators (NFOs) will benefit if the Government were to eventually liberalise the sector by leveraging on all the NFOs to expand the distribution network for sports betting to take away the market share from all illegal operators,” he said.

I think these analysts are spot on!

The Fall of the Titans

Even before we reach the half-way mark of 2010, two seemingly ' touch-me-not' corporate titans have been asked to take leave which have and will lead to their departure from the corporate scene for quite sometime.

First, there was Briggite Lai, the wunderkind at Alliance Bank. An internal inquiry exposed certain issues that she was involved in. She had no choice but to vamoosh!. There was no legal action taken. Was it ethical issues that did her in?

No we have another case. This time at the State-run Sime Darby hong.  The President and CEO, Zubair Murshid was asked to relinquish all positions today. This he did. No choice. Apparently he must have made some 'unforgivable  mistakes' at the Energy Division that saw the loss of RM1.5 billion. This has something to do with the Bakun Dam project, I suppose.

Will there be legal action? We await that one.

 With more transparency expected of corporate titans, they have to be really wise to earn their keep.

As the Bard says, "Heavy is the head that wears the Crown". More are finding out about this and may need Archimedes to weigh their crowns to ensure their necks can truly bear the weight of these star-studded crowns!

Otherwise,it is off with their heads!

Malaysia: 2010 GDP at 5.5 to 7%?

Yes, we have more affirmation of better growth prospects for 2010.

Now we have the Citigroup Investors telling us more.

This is the result of their crystal-balling.

-Malaysia’s economy may grow 7 per cent this year. The earlier forecast by Citigroup was 5.5 per cent.-

Another Much Welcomed Sukuk Offering

Say what you want,Ponzi scheme, reverse pyramidal money trap or what not.

The Malaysians are wise enough. There is very remote chance for the current BN government to fall. So brave up and buy this new issuance of  RM3 billion govt sukuk fund issued by yours truly, Bank Negara Malaysia.

According to a press release from Bank Negara yesterday, those aged 21 and above who wish to subscribe to the sukuk may do so from May 20 to June 9. The minimum subscription is RM1,000 with a maximum of RM50,000 per subscriber.

The sukuk, with a three-year tenure, offers annual returns of 5%.

Profit payments would be made quarterly.

Allocation of Sukuk 1Malaysia 2010 will only take place after the close of the subscription period. All subscribers will be allocated with an amount less than or up to the amount subscribed, depending on the total number of subscribers and the total subscriptions received, so says BNM.

It added that the sukuk came with a resaleable feature providing flexibility for investors to sell and buy the instrument before the maturity date.

Beginning June 22, investors can sell and purchase the sukuk at agent banks. The purchase of sukuk is based on a first-come, first-served basis, with no maximum limit, subject to the availability of the sukuk sold by existing holders,it said.

Last year, the Government issued RM5bil worth of Sukuk Simpanan Rakyat with a three-year tenure as part of the RM60bil stimulus measures aimed at boosting the economy following the global economic slump. The entire RM5bil sukuk were fully subscribed within nine days.

Besides the sukuk, the Government has also issued Merdeka bonds, with the first bonds based on syariah principles issued in February 2004 until the eighth issuance in October 2005 when they were discontinued.

These bonds were issued again in two tranches each of RM1bil last year.

Malaysia: Outsourcing Undercuts Electronic Sales

This is the second year in a row that US electronic companies in Malaysia will face a sharp fall in export sales. The main cause is the continuing trend to outsource manufacturing processes to reduce costs.

Let us read this Reuters report.

Kuala Lumpur, May 10 — US electronics firms in Malaysia expect a second year of steep fall in export sales in 2010, an industry body said today, as firms continue to outsource manufacturing processes to cut costs.

The value of electronics shipments by the 20 members of the Malaysian American Electronics Industry group, or MAEI, will drop by nearly one-fourth to RM57.3 billion this year.

The group includes some of the world's biggest players including Dell, Intel and Motorola.

In 2009, total export sales were at RM70 billion, down 16 per cent from 2008.

The forecast sharp fall was due to “a change in manufacturing strategy from internal to outsourcing,” said MAEI chairperson Wong Siew Hai.

“Excluding this change, MAEI's export sales is expected to grow by 10.8 per cent in 2010,” Wong told reporters.

MAEI members contributed about a third of Malaysia's total electrical and electronics exports.

Since the global financial crisis two years ago, the MAEI member companies have started to outsource some of their operations to local manufacturers and other cheaper hubs such as China, said Wong, a former Intel senior executive.

He said the demand outlook for the industry remains positive after the latest data showed global semiconductors sales grew by more than half in the first quarter of 2010 from the same period in 2009.

Capital expenditure by the MAEI members are forecast to rise by nearly a quarter this year as they hire more workers and expand their operations to meet growing demand.

“Originally we thought it was an inventory restocking, but I think that was gone. I think we are past the inventory status,” said Wong.

New Accounting Method likely to Affect Property Stocks

The International Financial Reporting Interpretations Committee on Real Estate Development (IFRIC 15), which will become applicable for the accounting period commencing July 1, is likely to affect investor sentiment in property stocks, analysts said.

Under the new ruling issued by the Malaysian Accounting Standards Board, property developers are to recognise revenue based on the completion method instead of the percentage-of-completion method in current practice.

ECM Libra Capital Sdn Bhd research head Bernard Ching said the new ruling could deter shareholders that based their investments on a company’s earnings.

“Investors that are not so sophisticated and less informed about the company’s operations will be deterred when they notice that the company’s earnings aren’t so consistent,” he told StarBiz.

“Fundamentally, this new ruling does not change anything as there is no cashflow impact. The only difference is recognition of the company’s accounting profits,” said Ching.

He said developers exposed to strata-high-end projects, which often take three years (as opposed to landed residential projects that take only two years) to complete would be most affected.

“Developers with projects that are few and spaced would have the most impact as opposed to say, township developers that have more projects. Large companies with good track records are least likely to see any impact.”

Ching said a way around this was for developers to become more transparent with their investors.

“The bulk of the listed property companies do not engage their investors. Companies like Sunrise Bhd are great at engaging investors, as they have regular analyst briefings and are quite transparent with their projects.”
“It’s up to the developer to be more transparent with their launches. Companies that consistently make headlines will continue to do well under the new ruling.”

An analyst from a local bank-backed brokerage who requested anonymity called the new ruling “silly.”
“It’s a silly rule. What is wrong with the way earnings are reported that requires it to be amended? Whoever came up with the ruling I feel has zilch industry experience.
“In terms of dollars and cents, it’s business as usual for the developers. Only on paper does it look different. However, it would deter investor confidence as company earnings would look choppy.”

He, however, added that the reaction, if any, would be temporary.

“Investors who are not aware may be shocked and this may create a knee-jerk reaction. But I think after a while, they will adjust.”
The analyst said he wasn’t going to revise his outlook for property stocks because of a “change in accounting rules.”

“A company’s share price is based on cashflow, not on accounting profit. A change in accounting rules does not mean the company isn’t making money.”

Affin Investment Bank, in a recent research report, said earnings for developers were expected to be lumpy and volatile, and might appear negative on the surface.

“Analysis on profit and loss, such as profit margins, (including quarterly earnings) will be tough, as it will be purely based on the guidance from developers on their job completion schedule. Earnings from newly launched properties can only be seen two to three years after the properties are completed.

“As such, valuations based on earnings are not quite valid to reflect future earnings prospects. Instead, valuations based on RNAV (revised net asset value) will be widely used to assess the relative attractiveness of different property stocks,” it said.

The research house does not anticipate developers to continuously launch projects just to have a healthy balance sheet.

“The property sector is known to be cyclical in nature and pretty much depends on economic conditions. Despite the adoption of IFRIC 15, we believe developers will still launch new properties at the best and right time that they reckon.

“Rolling out new properties regularly to smoothen out earnings does not make sense as developers will have to carry higher inventory, especially during bad times, which slows down turnaround time.”

It also said developers with fewer launches and smaller landbanks could be badly affected.

“Earnings could be in the red for a few years before we see positive earnings contribution from property sales. Furthermore, companies which have established a dividend policy may not be relevant anymore and investors and analysts will have to depend on guidance from management.”

Well, this will be a great time to buy property stocks when the weak holders give out!