YTL-Retail Risk Takers

Eye-balling the deals done today on YTL, there were some big deals-some were in 1,000s while there was one in a 3,000 lot tranche.

Apart from that, it was mere nibblings; very likely, from retail buyers angling for some quick profits if the counter should move up quickly to RM2.00; and possibly some day traders hopping in to cash in from some arbitrage gains if foreign funds and other local institutional funds should start taking up positions.

Right now, they are trading at the RM1.75 sen, about 7 sen from the all-time high of RM1.82.

If the tsunami surge should come perhaps in a week's time, then this counter may move up with traction; at least to the next rung of RM1.80.

We really do not know what Francis is up to but we know that those who converted from YTL Cement have already had a profit of 32 sen in their pockets.

Though, the conversion has resulted in a massive influx of new shares into YTL Corp,this has been ambivalently balanced by the cash horde that has been remitted into the coffers of YTL Corp.

Also the net asset of the share will have gone up with the injection of YTL Cement's assets.

I am pretty sure that YTL is in the market to buy Treasury shares after amassing 6.77% of the entire shares as of yesterday.

The market has just ended with YTL Corp pegging on 7 sen to RM1.80. This is earlier than I have anticipated.

That it has ended at RM1.80 is indicative of a support price likely from Treasury buys, mopping up day traders who have taken profit from arbitrages.

Tomorrow is Friday. In all likelihood, there will be profit taking all round.

I believe, if world markets continue to be supportive, YTL Corp may spring up to RM1.90; before settling down at RM1.80 or better.

A self-fulfilling prophecy of RM2.00 is just about to come true.

That will be next week's action.

Achilles Heels and Bad Leadership

As the 13 GE looms near, speculated to be held sometime in May or June, whether BN wins back some of its lost state governments or reclaim its two-third majority in Parliament is anybody's guess.

In evaluating the likely chances of BN coming back into strength, do read the mainstream media with a chunk of salt. Similarly those who read the alternative media, expect speculation galore too as most of the premises they are built upon may also be suspect.

Be that as it may,let me also do my own so-called fair bit of crystal gazing and musings while the authorities put their thinking hats to call the election in the near term or to serve the full term till April 2013.

I believe that lately, the BN government has been on the defensive. The flip-flops; while good for the targeted segments of the Malaysian population, does not augur well for the BN leadership. Perception is very important and the current report card shows that BN is assailed from all directions.

These range from the volte-face capitulation in education-where English will continue to be used for the teaching of Science and Maths except for those in Std 1 and Std 2. So much gung-ho from the Education Minister and then he bucked! Now the opposition civil society groups such as PAGE has now galvanised with other like-minded groups to form a bigger group to fight for the liberation of education; and the use of English in the national education system for the sake of the future of Malaysian children in a competitive globalised world.

The second is the complete reversion of the Public Services Salaries Scheme to square one; albeit with some new changes that would appease the lower rungs of civil servants. Where the government is going to obtain the extra RM3 billion to foot the bill only Houdini can conjure up!

The others imbroglios include the RM300 million loans to buyers of KL City Hall flats which has yet to take off because of the supposedly sub-prime status of its borrowers and the ineffective 1Malaysia First Home Purchases for graduates which has yet to see some semblance of success. Here, Bank Negara is not moving an inch from its new lending guidelines in order to check the increasing household debt.

The controversial Felda Global Ventures listing is still stormy as the courts will be used again and again to stall the listing. Side-lining the Felda settlers will be a bane to BN. Failing to resolve this problem amicably will mean FELDA-driven constituencies may fell to the Opposition,regardless whether Pakatan is weak or strong in those areas.

The protest against the Gebeng Lynas project is still smouldering and may cost seats particularly in constituencies around Kuantan and in Pahang. There is also the likelihood that the effects may also reverberate to other constituencies nation-wide.

As I have written in an earlier post,as the razor-sharp no-stones un-turned PR investigative teams zoom in from one issue to another, the BN is forced into an Alamo siege mentality of of sorts. The 'Cowgate' scandal has been a field day for the PR faction. They have got some of the protagonists turned antagonists into courts and more may be charged.

The winds is in their sails as they now take on the PM exposing his birthday and his daughter's engagement party do. How will the PM re-act on this? Elegant silence or take the bulls by its horns and expose the PR investigators?

In Sarawak. BN may have a fighting chance in Sabah as the Opposition is yet to show any strength. Also, you have leaders such as Jeffrey Kitingan and Yong Teck Lee and their counterparts that are coming up from hibernation mode to throw a spanner into the works further confusing the Sabahan voters as they grappled with the need for an RCI to look into the ugly problem of illegal immigrants being fast-tracked into becoming voting citizens.

It will be BN's bulwark in Sarawak helmed by 'Peh Moh' which will help BN to make it its day or break its back in this coming elections. Intrepid and adept in politics as he is, this veteran is putting his finger to the wind. He may jump ship if the Titanic sinks! As they say, politics is the art of the possible!

For PR,which is the weakest party in the Pakatan Rakyat alliance, they have to ensure potential frogs are weeded out from their candidate list. Most ex-UMNO candidates may have to be thoroughly vetted before they can be considered as deserving candidates. That is Keadilan's Achilles heel.

Will history repeat itself and cause another Perak debacle?

Random Walks and Oil and Gas Adventures

For the last few months, the market has been rumbling with rumours about corporate takeovers and asset injections. But do take notice, they are mostly penny stock counters.

Some parties have seen it worthwhile to take over these loss-making entities and in the process push their prices sky-high. Remember Tri-cubes and Karambunai? The latest to join the adventure is Naim Indah Corp (Nicorp)and Envair.

Nicorp has been invited by a party to tender for a takeover of some oil and gas facilities while Envair has a new majority shareholder in a politically connected carpet man.

The other phenomenon happening lately is called, in stock market parlance, the 'random walk'. Here, all stocks will naturally get out of hibernation and have their day of fame on the bourse's 'catwalk'. They prices will start to move up with heavy volume and then spurt upwards like a fountain only to fell back bringing losses to the uninitiated. Be careful. One such counter is Metronic Global. Is it doing a random walk or is it also embarking on an oil and gas adventure as it is an UMNO vehicle?

Now,both types of developments will occur in timely fashion,just before an impending general elections and since the election is looming closer every day, such counters are made into 'race-track horses' to make hay for the politically connected at the behest of greedy retail buyers and day traders. Once, they have amassed sufficient political funds to donate to their Godfather parties, the stocks will wither in price, lose momentum and be back to square one in no time. Look at Harvest Court,no one is interested really in it these days, though it has escalated so high because of some personalities. Money have been made, money have been lost!

For the weak hearted and weak-kneed, do stay away from these games.

YTL Corp-From RM1.55 to RM2.00

For those who bought YTL Corp shares cum share split of 1 into 5 way back in April 2011, you would have average about RM1.55 per share.

Subsequent to that, it rose as high as RM1.82 and went down as low as RM1.29. Currently it is back at RM1.73. [on 20 March 2012, it ended at RM1.76.]

If RHB IB forecast price of RM2.00 is achieved within 2012, that would mean that an investor who bought the share just after ex-split would have made RM0.45 sen per share. Assuming that you bought the share today at RM1.73, it means there is another 17 sen to be made if the share price moves and stays at that price of RM2.00.

So, let us re-calculate:

For the investor who made 0.45 sen, it meant a return of 29% gross or 23% nett.

For the investor who bought in today at RM1.73;with a potential 17 sen to be had, it means a return of 9.8% gross. Minusing brokerage and administrative charges, it means a return of 3.8%.This is still better than the current bank rate of 3%.

Today(20 March 2012)OSK IB predicts that YTL Corp will go further to a new top price of RM2.10.

So, would you still buy into YTL Corp at this stage?

Confessions of a Pharmaceutical Industry Practitioner

Truly shocking revelation of what the pharmaceutical industry is really up to.

So, if you are on any of the drugs mentioned by this lady be it anti-depressants or cholesterol lowering drugs, review your intake of these!

And the Proverbial Sun Doth Rises

With the Eurozone and Wall Street sending better than neutral signals,local conditions will determine the direction of our local equities market.

As I see it, the culprit EPF seller may have sold enough to lock in its profits.Khazanah has also posted rosy figures to appease its stakeholders.

As the price of the blue chips got eroded,smart buyers; however small, have got into the action to beef up their portfolios with Maybank,Sime Darby, Tenaga and Telekom Malaysia shares.

I also believed institutions are back and buying into Digi, Public Bank and YTL Corp.

So, the FBMCI index rose about 10 points to 1573.43 by 10 am.

There seems to be many weak sellers in the field today and if there is sufficient traction on the blue chips such as BAT, CIMB, Shell and UMW, we should hold strong with this index.

Let us see how the trading day pans out.

Where are you Driving YTL Corp?

Francis Yeoh has God on his side.

I believe he knows what he is doing.

Apart from amassing shares for the coffers of the Treasury from the recent wanton sell-out by EPF and the potential glut of weak sellers who converted from the now de-registered YTL Cement counter running amok,what is up in his sleeves?

Like the recent KL floods, YTL Corp shares were massively being sold down below RM1.65 by these mean EPF chaps.

Fortunately, strong buying support pushed the price up 5 sen to RM1.71 at noon today.

There must be something in the air. Otherwise RHB IB would not venture to give a top price of RM2.00 for YTL Corp.

I am very sure after the one to five share split,the absorption of YTL Cement shares from the market and the sale of its hospitality assets to STAREIT, Francis has become more focused and must have something special to grow YTL further.

Along with close to RM 13 billion of liquid cash in the vaults of YTL Corp, something is bound to happen.

What is it?