Since economic recovery can come about by a concerted confidence building exercise, there are many polls conducted these days to take the pulse of industry captains to get their expert viewpoints on what is the state of the economy and what is their forecast of the return of better times.
Reuters conducted a poll and have this to report.
"China is on track to reach its 8 per cent growth target this year, while Asia's worst hit economies Singapore and Taiwan will see a sharp turnaround next year as the continent rebounds, a Reuters poll shows.
The poll, which covered estimates from more than 100 analysts in 12 economies, forecasts gross domestic product in Singapore and Taiwan will shrink by just over 5 per cent this year — deteriorating from a previous poll in March, which forecast they would both contract 4.9 per cent.
While this year will be Singapore's worst ever and Taiwan's weakest performance since records began in the 1950s, the worst does appear to be over for the export-reliant economies. Both will see the sharpest turnaround in Asia from recession to growth next year, the poll shows.
Singapore already leapt out of recession in the second quarter and the poll forecasts the island economy will rebound 4.4 per cent next year while Taiwan's GDP will increase 4 per cent.
Signs that China's economy is picking up after a sharp slowdown is boosting trade, while fiscal stimulus across the continent is helping stem the downturn. But while economists foresee a rebound in Asia next year, that assumes an upswing in the United States.
"Recent data from China has indicated that their economy is building momentum, supported by their fiscal stimulus, and data from Korea and Taiwan show exports appear to have bottomed out," said David Cohen at Action Economics.
"There are still clouds over how much of this can be sustained: a lot will depend on global export demand and that will largely hinge on how much the U.S. and European economies can turn around."
China will continue to see the fastest growth in Asia, expanding by 8.8 per cent in 2010 after an estimated 8 per cent expansion this year. India is set to grow 7.2 per cent during its financial year to March 2011, up from an estimated 6.3 per cent expansion in the year ending March 2010.
The forecasts for next year are slightly better than in the March poll amid signs that exports are declining less sharply than early in the year and consumption in the United States and Europe may be stabilising.
Inflation is benign for most of Asia, and consumer prices are declining in Thailand and a few other economies. However, the poll shows prices are likely to pick up next year as the economic climate improves, notably in India where inflation is forecast to average 5.5 per cent in 2010.
That means the downtrend in interest rates is probably over. New Zealand is expected to see the sharpest increase in rates by the end of next year, by 125 basis points, while South Korea's benchmark policy rate is set to increase by 100 basis points.
That will spur currencies. The Kiwi dollar, which is forecast to depreciate slightly between now and the end of the year, will rally 8 per cent next year. The South Korean won, which was quoted at 1,282 to the dollar today, is set to gain 13 per cent between now and the end of next year as the economy expands 4 per cent in 2010.
Indonesia will be Southeast Asia's best performer, growing 5 per cent this year and 5.9 per cent in 2010, as its more domestically driven economy insulates it from the export downturn.
Malaysia and Thailand should enjoy a modest rebound next year, of 4 per cent and 3 per cent respectively, after struggling with weak exports this year.
Australia is the only one of the 12 Asia-Pacific countries where growth will slow next year, to 0.5 per cent for the year ending June 2010 from an estimated 0.8 per cent for the year through June 2009.
Neighbouring New Zealand is starting to shake out of recession but growth next year of 2.2 per cent will be modest compared with growth in Asian economies.
"The big picture points to an extended period of relatively subdued growth over a number of years as the economy rebalances," said Cameron Bagrie, chief economist at ANZ-National Bank.
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