This is the hot topic for those interested in the quagmire of Malaysian politics. These days, no place is it
debated more than in the coffee-shops, be in the urban or rural landscape.
So when do you think the general election will be held now that ‘Goody Budget 2012’ has been announced and proclaimed much to the chagrin of the people? Remember, conditions apply!
A couple of issues will have to be addressed first besides logistics and procedural matters.
The most important will be the unity of UMNO and its Barisan Nasional comrade parties.
Objectively, looking at UMNO, its weakness will be that of leadership. Can the PM amicably dislodged the current 'warlords' in the various states namely Perlis and Trengganu?
What about UMNO led states which may go into 'hung' status such as Perak and Negeri Sembilan.
Pessimists also see attrition of seats in the bastion states of Johor and Pahang. Looks like the BN safe states are Malacca, Johor and Pahang.
As for Pakatan-led states, Kelantan and Penang are good as gone. Even Kedah and Selangor are not push-overs
Across the sea lies Sabah and Sarawak. Expect more urban seats to be lost. This could be upsetting if semi-urban areas go the other way too!
Will UMNO's next annual general election be a boon or bane for Najib? If he can get new faces in to
replace the faces of yesteryears, there could be a good chance of getting new voters to vote BN. If the old faces remain in place, then things may not be too rosy in the face of the best predictions. The same goes for the constituent parties of BN.
As for these BN parties, time is not on their side. Gerakan is so bashed up;it is as good as gone. MCA is going, silently down the chute. Unlikely to see a last man standing. MIC- it may hope to fare better than 2008 but not great surprise if it remains status quo. SUPP- Silence of the Lambs.Sabah-nothing left, is there?
Timing is the next issue. Fresh after the feel-good budget, will the people warm up to the BN.
The earliest they can get the promised goodies is in January 2012. Let us look at the laundry list of goodies to see whether they are better than palatable. The most important thing is "terms and conditions apply".
I think the civil servant and the uniform personnel such as the army and the police has been somewhat appeased. They got a full one month bonus. The pensioners are less unhappy. More is in the offing for those in service, though most of these will only see the light of day after GE13. Right now, the civil servants can dream......and hope.
For the students who are getting a windfall of RM100. Most are not voters. So, the effect on GE is remote.
Let us now turn to those who are going into college life, matriculation and Form 6. Some are voters, some are re not. Again, not every one of the would be voter goes into tertiary education to get this RM200 book voucher. It is an exclusive one off gift that many would not access especially if they go into the job market.
Health care for the silver-haired above 60 years old? Nah, they are only getting the registration fees gratis. For the others from diagnostics, consultancy to pharmaceuticals, they still need to pay the going rate.
The gift of the anti-cancer vaccine for our ladies-good one. Those who are already passed their menopausal phase--nada!
Public transportation half-fares for the senior citizens-looks good at first. After analysis, appears it is exclusively urbane in characteristic. So only those in the Klang Valley can enjoy. As for the others-so solly!
As for the RM500 per household one-off hand-out for household income below RM3, 000, nothing is for sure................ We await the details to see how lucky we can be. Jackpot?
Employers are voters. The 13% unbudgeted EPF contribution will be looked at with disdain! Some
likelihood anger may be shown through the ballot box!
Whatever the procedures and criteria for the handouts, it has to be in January 2012 and possibly
through Pos Malaysia or Bank Simpanan Nasional. Assuming it takes 30days for the rush to draw down on the goodies, the earliest possible date for the GE will be after the Chinese New Year (CNY). Remember CNY is in the last week of January in 2012!
Logistics? There was news on the appointments of polling personnel. Until more news come our way, let us assume it is a matter of course. As for the polling stations, politics is the art of the possible. It can be held at anytime regardless of the school time-table!
The economy-it will go into bitter mood in the next 6 months as European and US markets shrink
their demand for exports. Commodity producers must brace for the worst! So, Malaysia has to batten down as well!
Demography of the voting public is salient. This is dependent on place and age. BN should be okay in constituencies where postal votes are concerned. As for the new voters, it is anyone’s guess. However, if the new-bloods are more attuned to Bersih type of sentiments, they could vote against BN.
Lastly, the much talked about Parliament Select Committee to review election practices. They can only wrap up after April. This could be quicken and hasten. Same old-same old issues. So no big issue to get the recommendations in sooner.
Let me re-hash on the points once more.
- UMNO and BN-Still not out of the woods. UMNO’s candidate selection will be messy pre or post UMNO AGM.
- Budget 2012-Generally good and bad depending whether you are a public servant or not.
- Logistics- not a problem though weather and festivities could be a consideration.
- Economy- very serious problem. The earlier the GE is called, the better for BN.
- Demography- can work for or against. The issue of new voters-young blood can be anti-establishment.
- Parliament Select Committee- a non-issue
Therefore my guess-GE will likely be called from mid February to May 2012 or BN will have to go for the full term.
