October 21, 2012

The Astro Gambit-Would You Take A Position?

Overselling 
Now, that Astro has been taken to the cleaners, what should one's stance be toward this counter?

Do you think that there will be at least some fair premium above the IPO price?

If so, at the current price of RM 2.89, would you take a gambit and enter for a play?

My mind tells me that once the massive overselling subsides, the market will operate in a less tumultuous and predictable way.

Then genuine investors will have a re-look at Astro and its propensity for trading gains;at the very least.
Can Astro grow trading profits in the short term?
For now, those who have got the IPO shares as well as those who went in to buy yesterday afternoon and this morning, it looks like they have to hold the stocks and wait for a opportune to sell into some moderate profits.

The Astro Sellers-Who Are They?

Falling with Selling Gravity from a Big boy
With Astro's price plummeting from Day 1, who do you think were these sellers selling down the counter as if it was sampah sarap?

Let me speculate who will sell below IPO price?

Short sellers that will sell down the price only to buy back later at even lower prices.

Is this scenario possible? Unlikely is my answer as you would have to sell short by at least 6 sen to break even.

Margin traders who trades on a day basis, paying RM 20.00 for a buy and sell deal?

Again possible. Those who sell will need to buy back at 2 sen difference.

I think these traders may have started the selling deluge and have re-couped by now. Assuming they sold at RM2. 96 and bought back at RM 2.89, they would have gained 5 sen per lot of 1000 units.

Then, the RM64,000 question.

Who is a likely seller that needs cash for some reason and will cash out, for reasons best known to him, after being given a super-rich valuation by the apa macam authorities?

Likely mystery seller that could sell below IPO?
Could it be Ananda?

If so, until he complete selling down his big chunk, Astro will keep on falling.........

At lunch close, Astro slumped to RM 2.89.

Indians will look at the counter and remorsefully squeal, Kalawoleh!


Is MCA Playing The Emperor's New clothes?

I wonder.

On the closing note of the party's 59th AGM, the party believed they can win with the magical formula called the Ah Jib Kor factor. I doubt they can win BIG!

I am actually worried.

When I was at the Asian Institute of Management a long time ago when Marcos was still in power in the Philippines, I was taught one thing.

Avoid single-cause thinking.

Leading MCA members into more trouble?
I am sure that they MCA can take a leaf of learning from this simple concept.

As such, I would like to advise MCA to be not overtly dependent on this factor because even Najib has his detractors.

So, hopefully Chua Soi Lek would not lead all his members to sea like the Pipe Piper of Hamelin!

Ananda's ASTRO Got Roasted Kaw Kaw

Market is Saying So. No?
Yes, his stocks are getting hyper drubbing.

The market has sold him down the Old Swanee River.

From the word, "Go!", Astro shareholders dumped the burnt out former star like a plague.

It was sent reeling under intense selling pressure right through the RM 2.90 psychological level and if there was not a huge deluge of buyers at RM 2.88, it would have gone down to join the Penguins at the Antartic!

Right now, it is standing at RM 2.90.

Looking at the huge number of sellers, it looks like it may just drop below RM 2.85 this morning.

I can only see see salvaging work and salvation work done in late morning and early afternoon.

If not, Astro will fell further.

Like UOA Development, it might be given shoddy treatment by the market!

Heir Conditioning-Technology Deficient

Before the air con

M Shanmughalingam's simple poem, Heir Conditioning  perturbs me much.

It has only two stanzas.

The first stanza is that of an inquiring grandchild posing technology-based questions to his grandparents.

Let us look at the questions asked.

Grandad was asked this:

"Grand dad did you breathe before air cons were invented?

Was it hard staying alive without modern inventions?"

Then a question was also directed at Grandma:

"Grandma weren't you flustered as you fluttered with paper fans?"

Both of them were then asked how they could communicate without modern gadgets:

"Could you communicate before faxes and long distance calls became basic amenities?"

Let us digest this a little bit.

Grandad certainly could breathe without air conditioners. There was always the electric fan and before that rich men have servants who operated large fan-like contraptions at the side or suspended from above to cool the air around their masters. Then, there is always louvered-architecture for efficient aeration of homes.As for the air outside the home, it was always a delight to walk in the cool unpolluted air.On modern inventions, it could possibly include what the child was aware then ranging from cars, radios, tape-recorders, televisions, fridges to water heaters.

As for Grandma, the same argument would apply for the fan. Sometimes, ladies like to fan themselves as a matter of style. It makes them dainty in a way. Then there are the other fashioned-oriented ladies who want to add a fan as a touch of class for sheer vanity!

True, they would likely communicate with snail mail and also the telex, not forgetting morse-code.

Now, let us look at the second stanza.

The grandparents replies.

They have this to say in retort.

"Grandchild we lived before your age.Because of our ignorance we did not know pollution,stress,traffic jams,destruction of forests,streams and hills. We feared God and nature. Now nature fears you and money is your new God".

Old 'Car'
Reflect!

The grandparents are not answering the child's  questions. They are telling that innocent child about the price that humanity has to pay for modernisation. They are telling about the ill-effects of technology. They are talking about poor traffic management. They are telling about wanton governments who robbed their respective nations of natural forest cover because of greed and corruption.They are telling about poor pollution control over industry and factories.

Humanity has always feared God, no doubt about it. Nature as well. Look at the tsunami that led to the Fukushima meltdown. I agree fully that in the earliest days of man, they do fear and pay homage to the elements such as lightnings, thunders;even huge wild animals.

With the in-depth understanding of modern science, they do not hold them as Gods anymore. However, the world community still try their best to protect Mother Earth and try to delimit the undoings of rogue governments.

Is money the new God? No, it has always been God down the generations. People are God-fearing. We fear the unknown!

Perhaps people have gotten more greedy or more desperate as they sought for money to maintain their standard of living or they work hard for the money to put food on the table as inflation rears its ugly head. They do it out of necessity.

Solitary poet?
I think in this poem, the grandparents have failed to answer the child.

That disturbs me.

I think there is a lapse somewhere in this poem, Mr Poet!

Alvin and Vivian Affair-We Against the World

What now,my love?
The trouble-some two-some have opened their own Pandora's Box, so it seems.

What came out of naughty fun has taken on new dimensions as sanctions are fast coming to bear on these two lovers.

Vivian Communicates...
If the blog has been about lovers in the Western world such as in Holland, perhaps their antics would nary even attract an eye bat.

In Malaysia and the republic south of the Causeway are seeing things differently.

The conservative bug has come out and according to them, what occurs behind close door must always remain there.

No sex blogging please, we are Singaporeans and Malaysians.

So, if these two lovers expect leniency, it is not going to come.

Perhaps, a century or two from now?

MCA-Fearing the DAP Devil?

Singing a Song of Woe?
This will  possibly be the last AGM before they don their battle armour to go into a war that could possibly see it's demise.

Chua Soi Lek knows the outcome if  MCA should fail to wrestle back the seats that they lost to the DAP in 2008. The task to win the DAP seats as the last days draw nearer has taken a new level of impossibility.

In just a few short months, will be  the 13 GE and the prize is Putrajaya .

For the Barisan Nasional (BN), it's a do or die.

The likelihood of 'die' is glaring in its face if the MCA,MIC,Gerakan, PPP and BN-associated parties in Sabah, Sarawak and Labuan lose  a critical number of seats.

Many have anticipated that even though if UMNO managed to win a majority of the seats it contests,the BN will likely lose the thin majority in Parliament if  all seats allocated to MCA,MIC,PPP and Gerakan still go to the Opposition.

Similarly the winds of change in Sabah and Sarawak can do much harm as suburban seats can be lost to the BN parties in both these two states. The SUPP is already in disarray with infighting between Peter Chin and Wong Soon Kai.

Sabah is also experiencing major concerns as Musa is coralled by the RM40 million UMNO donation issue. Much votes will be lost if this issue is not resolved well.

MCA,in spite of its bravado, is downright defensive and is dreading the last days as it sits on the government bench in Parliament as Chua himself has promised that MCA will leave even if  Barisan wins if the Chinese people rejects them!

Again, expect sabotage to take place in all BN parties as some members' angst against the 'old guards' will draw fire on Election day.

The 13th GE will be a sea-change for sure.

Sumptious Japanese Fare at the Fu Rin

The Japanese Style approach
After driving through raging flood waters on leaving Bandar Permaisuri in Cheras,the family decided to do dinner the Japanese way.

Holiday Inn Glenmarie is not really far and driving even in misty rain did not deter us.

The Sign-board
It was the Fu Rin Japanese Restaurant that we stepped in for dinner tonight.

Inviting Interior
We ordered a plate of shashimi, unagi bento and fried salmon bento. The bentos came with rice and miso soup.

Tasty Morsels
We ate heartily and drove it down with hot,green Japanese tea.

With Rice, Condiments, Cawan Mushi and Miso Soup
Good dinner.

Unagi-Caramelled Eel Delight
Cost me almost RM 250 but it was worth it.

Alvin Tan and Vivian Lee-Where To Now?

Capturing for Posterity?
May be it was just honest fun and possibly the innate pleasure by being exhibitionistic in their quest for some romanticised notoriety.

Alvin said it was Vivian who enticed him to go the Full Monty.

That they did it is now history.

A Misty Past, an Uncertain Future
Now, a week after the expose and furor, what is there left for the twosome to do?

Is the future bleak for both of them?

For Alvin, the possibility of losing his ASEAN scholarship is almost certain what with starchy-collared, conservative Singapore values.

Also he may feel the boot-tip of being expelled from NUS.

For Vivian, she has lost her passport privileges and may even be turned out of home by her aggrieved and distraught mother.

Les Miserables?

The future? Both have seen a potential in acting.

But what sort?

Not a Greenhorn for sure
Pink movies or the bluer kind?