Global Economic Recovery Stronger than Expected

TAIPEI, Jan 18 — The recovery in the global economy could be surprisingly strong in the coming quarters, helped by emerging markets, the deputy chairman of Government of Singapore Investment Corp said today.

The global economy is also likely to become more reliant on government policies such as liquidity support and asset purchases, Tony Tan told a forum in Taipei, noting that any withdrawal of such policies could derail the recovery if it is done too early or too sharply.

“The global recovery has generally been stronger than most analysts’ expectations and could further surprise on the upside, at least for the next few quarters,” Tan said.

He added that developed economies may also see growth, with the United States likely to see moderately strong growth in the first half of this year before slowing, while Europe is likely to benefit from the pickup in global trade.

“The good news is that we appear to have avoided a global depression,” Tan said. “The global economy has stabilised and is now recovering.”

However, he warned that policy makers in emerging markets will have to contend with rising inflation and likely asset price bubbles, challenging governments who have to keep prices in check while not snuffing out the nascent recovery.

“Across the region, we have seen significant rises in equity and real estate prices on the back of domestic reflationary policies and capital inflows supported by low global interest rates,” he said.

“These have not in general hit their previous peak, and can be justified by positive fundamentals, but continued low interest rates could push prices higher, and eventually lead to bubbles.”

GIC, one of the world’s largest wealth funds, with assets estimated in excess of US$200 billion (RM680 billion), holds stakes in financial firms such as UBS and Citigroup. — Reuters

Malaysia: Get Back the FDI; Prithee , please...

The Bard said,"To Thine Own Self, Be True". We in Malaysia have a lot of re-learning to do.

So, let us re-introspect.

How much money can you really get from raising funds through sukuk and bonds? Remember you have to pay interest every three months to bond and sukuk holders. Floating sovereign bonds overseas? Expect limited success as the whole world is still reeling from the 2007-2008 sub-prime meltdown. Anyway, with the local current political problems flamed by religious fervour and institutional failures, you would not get a good sovereign rating and you may have to pay higher rates for the funds you can raise.Stock market is going 'crabway'. Khazanah can continue to sell,when does the sell-off stop?

Petronas dividends have shrunk with the gravitational price fall.Local taxes? Not easy to broaden the tax base. How much subsidies can you take off? The people are screaming their hearts out at the increased price of rice, bread,sugar and meat as well. The Amanah Saham 1 Malaysia was a dismal failure. As usual, concept fumbling as well as poor dividend expectation has rung the near-death knell for the fund. Expect smart money to evaporate out of this unit trust scheme when the 5% sukuk fund is launched anytime this year.

So what does a PM do in these situation? Call up top business tycoons for national service.So, on the quiet,Prime Minister Najib called Malaysia's top business tycoons for a little 'heart to heart' pep talk. That was in December 2009.

The message was simple. Jump-start domestic investment and help the government generate economic activity, said financial executives familiar with the meeting.

Najib is concerned because not only were foreign direct investment flows slowing, but key businessmen were also moving out of the economy.

Sadly, only months before the meeting, Asia’s richest businessman and Malaysia’s top corporate figure Robert Kuok sold off his long-established interests in the sugar importing and refining business. Save for his Shangri-La hotels nationwide, Kuok has little visible business interests left in Malaysia.

Meanwhile, casino operator Genting, engineering and property group YTL, and the telecommunications and multimedia holdings controlled by tycoon Ananda Krishnan have been restructuring their respective corporations in recent months.

They want to channel financial resources generated locally to finance overseas expansion plans. so, some more capital flight is in the offing.

Can Najib’s cajoling and nudging persuade these corporate 'profit inclined' chieftains to search inward for business opportunities work?

Certainly the current religious concerns are not helping in any way. As there is no end in sight towards the amiable resolution on this issue in the short term, expect the corporate giants to play a 'wait and see' game. So, the pep talk may not provoke any of these corporate leaders to jump into active mode anytime soon, Mr.PM.

As for foreign investors, the current political and religious problems bears the hallmarks of a self-created problem which will trouble them no end for their current investment in the country, much less talk of upping the ante. Manu Bhaskaran of Centennial Asia Advisors in Singapore opines that “They would have noticed that the majority ethnic group in Malaysia appears insecure and how and why this insecurity has been bred.”

Malaysia stands at a crossroads in its economic development.

The country’s export-led economic model is sputtering because of weak global demand, while higher labour costs are forcing companies to consider other investment locations like Vietnam. Meanwhile, state-led infrastructure development that has kept the construction sector humming has dried up.

The boom in commodities is fading and exposing the government’s overdependence on its revenue from petroleum to fund the country’s bloated civil service and development programmes.

Najib has declared that he will unveil an economic blueprint next month that will detail the government’s plans to create a new economic model, which can help chart Malaysia’s transformation to a high-income economy. Everyone is expectant to see what is this new Houdini model of economics.

But private economists said he faces several challenges and chief among them will be tackling structural gaps such as the shortage of skilled labour, the weakest education system yet and a state-dominated economy that leaves little room for private sector competition on a level ground.

Furthermore, the government’s reluctance to dismantle barriers that fuel a vast political patronage system has bred inefficiencies. These include the extension of the awards of APs for imported cars and awarding of contracts on a negotiated basis rather than competitive bidding.

“The (new economic) model needs to be holistic and should go beyond economics and trade. Malaysia needs more openness,” says the ever vocal and down-to-earth Dr Mohamed Ariff, head of the Malaysian Institute of Economic Research (Mier).

Official figures show that approved investment for the first nine months of last year totalled RM19.1 billion, of which RM12.2 billion was foreign direct investment.

That is a far cry from the RM62.8 billion of approved investments in the previous year, with just over RM46 billion in the form of foreign capital.

Mier estimates that the economy contracted by up to 3.3 per cent last year. The independent think-tank believes the economy will grow by as much as 3.7 per cent this year.

But private economists said the rebound will be clouded by several factors, such as a swelling fiscal deficit and abnormal capital outflow. According to government officials, close to RM117 billion flowed out in 2008 and a further RM54 billion in the first half of last year.

Najib’s immediate challenge is to recreate an environment that will encourage investment. As a percentage of the nation’s gross domestic product (GDP), private investment currently hovers at around 11 per cent, from about 36 per cent during the mid-1990s.

Private economists like Bhaskaran of Centennial believe that Malaysia needs to get private investment up to be around 20 per cent of GDP quickly. To meet that target, Najib will need to implement a “thoroughgoing reform to reverse the degradation of institutions” such as the civil service, judiciary, police and the country’s universities, said Bhaskaran.

I think the task for PM Najib is herculean. He may not even get past resolving the current religious issue splitting the major ethnic groups as well as West and East Malaysia!

At stake is both the potential loss of BN's hold of the Federal government in the next election as well as a struggling economy much in want of both local and foreign investments.

Contextual Clues in Summarizing

What are Key words?

The key words are those words that stands out. The give the important information.

E.g: The beautiful Siberian tiger is close to extinction.

'Beautiful ' may be descriptive of the tiger but the key words are close to extinction.

What are Synonyms?

As you need your own words to replace those in the original text, you need to find the alternative words. These words are called synonyms. Never used words that distort the original meaning. Remember clarity and meaning is more important than word counts or word replacements.

Example of synonym usage:

to replace 'danger', you can use 'hazard,risk,peril,threat'

When using synonyms, watch out between context and connotation.

Context means- 'background,situation,perspective,circumstance'

Connotation means- 'nuance,implication,association,undertone, subtext'

CONTEXTUAL CLUES:

Many words have several meanings. so look for its intended meaning.

E.g.: She took some money with her to the bank by the river Which bank?-River bank or commercial bank?)

She thought the woman at the hairdresser's was fair.(Fair skin or fair-priced service?)

To be certain, we need further clues to help us decide.

These clues are called contextual clues.

How do you go about looking for them?

Look what is said before and what is said after the WORD!

E.g.: I shall scrape the varnish off the bow before I do anything else", the sailor said. (Violin bow or bow of a boat?)

Let us look at the types of Contextual Clues

1. Clues that Define:

Some words are defined:

E.g. : A kampung is a Malaysian village.

2. Clues that use a synonym:

a familiar word is given is given as an alternative for an unknown word.

E.g. : His dogged or persistent way is bound to see him succeed.

3.Clues that Compare or Contrast:

Here,the unknown word is contrasted with another word or phrase

E.g.: Even though I admit my brother is slothful,he is certainly not as lazy as Simon Jay.

The Writing Stage in Summarizing

Involves two steps:

First draft
Final draft

The First Draft:

After checking that the outlined notes conforms to the original text,put away the text
Create a title for the summary. Eg.- " summary of " The History of Basket Weaving"
Use only the outlining notes to write first draft
Carefully reword and condense until the required length is achieved
Change the order of ideas if you want to
-make overall meaning clearer
-improve your expression leaving meaning unchanged
-respond to a given question more effectively
-do not over-emphasize points or ideas in the early part of the summary
-ensure the points in the latter part of the summary are included for word count.
-write in a fluent continuous style
Do not use contractions such as 'don't,can't" etc
-generally use past tense unless passage is in present or future tense throughout

Some Caveats:

Pronoun Usage:

If the original text uses a first person viewpoint:

E.g.: I went to the cinema
We had supper together.

Then you can treat them this way.

(a) continue to use the first person "I " or "We" in the summary
(b) change to third person- He/She,Michelle,the author

Using Indirect Speech:

"We would like to go shopping." she said.

"I shall have exercised the dog by five o' clock." he said.

becomes:

She said they liked to go to the movies.
He said that he would have exercised the dog by five o' clock.

Mrs. Wong said," I would like to visit Rome next year"

becomes:

Mrs Wong said that she would like to visit Rome next year.

The Final Version:

-Write the final neat version after checking and editing the first and second draft.

-There should be few changes at this stage. Make changes with care.

-Run a word tally at the margin after every completed line
-Have a final check of the good version against the original text to ensure your summary is accurate,fluent and error-free

Checking:

Check three times

When?

-after the outlining notes have been made
-after the first draft is completed
-after final version is completed

How to Do It:

At Outlining Stage:

-check accuracy of outliningn otes. Ensure main ideas and important details are recorded.
-examine words and phrases to ensure you did not copy them from the words in the text.

When Final Draft is Completed:

-check accuracy of first draft against the original text. Are all relevant ideas/ideas there?
-examine words and phrases to ensure you did not copy them from the words in the text.
-check flow and clarity of expressions. Correct where necessary.
-check number of words-rephrase to meet word count if required.
-once you are happy with this draft, start to write the final version

At Final Version Stage:

-check against the original text. Ensure accurate representation of text.
-check summary to ensure:

its fluent,it does not use words and phrases from the text,grammatically correct and meet the word count.

Developing Summarizing Skills I

Definition of a Summary:

-It is a shorter or condensed version of a text and is worded differently
-It's your own brief interpretation of a text in your own words
-You include or exclude what you think is important or unimportant from the actual text
-Your summary is a unique text of your very own

Steps in Summary Writing:

-Read the text
-Outline it
-Check it
-Write it

1. Reading the Text:

Read at least two times for understanding

The First Time:

-to get the general idea through the process of skimming

The Second Time:

-to start outlining-pay attention to meaning in each paragraph/section. reread for understanding;use contextual clues, use a dictionary
-look for the main idea in each paragraph. This is normally in the topic sentence.
-underline the topic sentences
-organize notes based on main ideas
-check with the original text that the meaning is the same.

Third Reading (Optional)

-to verify accuracy of notes
-to check suitability of words used
-gauge general appropriateness

2. Outlining:

Outlining helps make notes.

There are two outlining stages.

First Outlining Stage:

-Number each paragraph
-Write a statement on purpose of the author in writing the text(This will help on what to add and what to weed out)

Some reasons why an author writes:

-to provide information
-to tell a story
-to issue instructions
-to entertain
-to complain
-to persuade
-to put forward an argument
-to stimulate thought and discussion
-to record an event
-to praise or criticize
-to explain
-to describe something

Second Outlining Stage:

This takes place during the second reading stage

Why do you outline?

-to identify and make judgment about importance of ideas and details in the text
-to record main ideas and improtant details in note form
-to organize notes to show ideas and details in an organized order(sequence) and its relationships

How to Do It:

-Underline topic sentences and key words
-Write headings and subheadings if passage is long
-Ask questions on the passage
-Make notes under subheadings-record main and important ideas
-Write down a statement of main idea of the passage
-Omit information not relevant to main ideas
-Combine information from other paragraphs into one
-Combine details from lists,bullet points,tables and charts. Only the essential ones need to be included
-For examination purpose, you may need a few ideas right up to 15 ideas (for long texts).
-Check accuracy of your outline to the original text

Flipping Fantastic

This is the short story that Form One students have to do in 2011. The story is unexciting to say the least and focuses on the conflict afflicting two twins as they struggle to attend new schools after finishing their primary schooling. The whole story is based on the diary pages of the twins and their mother.

The language is simple but the twists and turns by constantly referring to the diary pages is not a very 'user-friendly'exercise and may lead students to be confused about this short story and invite boredom.

Let us just get a gist of what Jane Langford's short story,"Flipping Fantastic" is all about

Two twin brothers who are ever dependent on each other are at a cross-road in the lives after finishing primary school. While physically challenged Tristan will go to a special boarding school,James will attend day school just like most of their friends.

The exposition is at the final year concert. Tristan,apparently, having a more vocal and outward personality, played the main role as Tom Sawyer while James had only a line to verbalise.As far as Tristan and his mother are concerned, the concert went on well. James flt a bit sheepish after fumbling on his lines.

Then they started grappling with the issues that will confront them at their new schools Both felt that their twin brother will need them. Tristan was overcome by doubts that he wanted to join James too at Highfields. For a while, James was happy with the new development. Then, remembering that he should stand on his own, Tristan finally changed back his mind and proceed to go to Chesterlea Grange.

As people adapt to circumstances,Tristan started loving his school which he described as 'flipping fantastic' while James was happy to have Kiara Jones whom he likes for moral support at the new school. That makes the boys' mother extremely happy as all the issues have resolved themselves out.

It is a classic "All's well that ends well' story with little dramatics.

The English is simple and should be comprehensible to those who regularly read English books.

To Leisurely Live Life

William Henry Davies philosophical poem extolling living life in a more relaxed mode makes one interesting reading. I remembered reading it as a nursery rhyme in my primary school days. It was such fun to memorize it and then even act it out during the annual school concert in December those days.

The poem uses a lot of imagery. It invites us to observe life in a more relaxed manner akin to 'smelling the roses along the path in life's journey'. If there is too much seriousness in pursuing ambitions or wealth, we can miss the many joys of living. Learn to make time for oneself. Appreciate the beauty of Mother Nature and fall in love.

Let us read the poem.

LEISURE

What is this life, if full of care,
We have no time to stand and stare.

No time to stand beneath the boughs
And stare as long as sheep and cows.

No time to see,when woods we pass
Where squirrels hide their nuts in grass.

No see to see, in broad daylight,
Streams full of stars, like stars at night.

No time to turn at Beauty's glance.
And watch her feet,how they can dance.

No time to wait till her mouth can
Enrich that smile her eyes began.

A poor life this if, full of care,
We have no time to stand and stare.

Personifying a River

Valerie Bloom's poem, "The River" is a wonderful little piece of work describing the many facets of a river.The river is to her many things.She describes the river in personification as a wanderer from its source to its mouth.The river is also a winder cutting through soft soils and going around hard rocks as its loops and wounds itself on the way down.

Like humans, the river is said to be protecting its own secrets underneath its hidden bed.

The poet tells us that the river is a highly  musical creature, gurgling like a baby sucking its thumb. The river's joyous music resonates to its surroundings in wanton rapture .  When  it is in happy spirit, a river sings and dances in sheer abandonment.

In spite of all these whimsical qualities that tend to signify joy and fun,a river has its dark side too. It can be a menace when it overflows its banks, bringing floods,tearing trees down and anything in its path including homes, and destroying human beings,crops and animals.

Let us appreciate this light-hearted poem.

The River


The river's a wanderer,
a nomad, a tramp,
he doesn't choose one place
to set up his camp

The river's a winder,
Through valley and hill
He twists and he turns
He just cannot be still.

The river's a hoarder,
And he buries down deep
Those little treasures
That he wants to keep.

The river's a baby,
He gurgles and hums,
And sounds like he's happily
sucking his thumbs.

The river's a singer,
and he dances along,
the countryside echoes
The notes of his song.

The river's a monster
Hungry and vexed,
He gobbled up trees,
And he'll swallow you next.

The poem has 6 stanza with 4 lines each where lines 2 and 4 in all stanza rhymes. Except for the last stanza, this is one happy poem to recite.

Enjoy the poem.

A Warriors's Lament

Marzuki Ali's short poem is a nostalgic walk down memory lane. In the poem, he reflects to the time when he was able bodied, fighting for independence and sacrificing his youth for the ideals of nationhood.

He has given the better part of his life for independence and is now wheel-chair bound. He is old as he symbolizes in the title of his poem," A fighter's Lines". He could possibly be reflecting on the lines on his old brazen face. He lacks the energy he once possessed though his spirit to fight on remains strong. But times have changed. Even with independence, the poet could not see any satisfaction of his ideals. He finds no joy in the attainment of nationhood. He felt robbed of the fruits of his struggle.

The current challenges facing his nation are difficult to overcome. There is deceit everywhere these days. It disturbs him but he is powerless to do anything about it.The social ill continues to spread and corrupt.

The younger generation may be misled and could be indoctrinated to accept the modern ills of corruption,the greedy pursuit of materialism and the falsehood of politicians out for short-term gains.Unless the younger generation are brave,educated,imbued with a sense of national pride, open minded and worldly wise,it would be difficult for them to fight the powers that be.

Let us read the poem.

A Fighter's Lines

I am old and worn
and have lost all my strength
sufferings
and the history of the fight for independence
have forced sacrifices
that know no name
or life

From the wheelchair of the rest of my days
I, body and energy crushed
see and cannot do much
these times are too big a challenge
for the remnants of my crippled years
the net of deceit spread everywhere
disturbs me.

In the name of justice
Wake up and form ranks sons of our ancestor
Be brave
A erect a wall of people
Stand up heirs of our freedom

I have no more voice
It is you now who should speak!

This is a disturbing poem. It has a sad tone and readers will feel melancholic just reading the lines of the free-verse poem. There is a sense of powerlessness. As he extols the younger generation to continue with his struggle for justice against the modern forms of evils, we sympathized with the poet that his sacrifice could have been in vain, if there is no follow through on his resolve.