December 16, 2010

Merril Lynch: Underweigh Malaysia!




I was reading Yow How Chieh's article in the Malaysian Insider today (16 December 2010). It makes sober reading and has foreboding implications for Malaysians in 2011 and much beyond.

Here is his article.

"The Najib administration’s New Economic Model (NEM) has failed to excite investors, with Bank of America Merrill Lynch maintaining this week its call to shed investments in Malaysia.

Despite the government’s high hopes on the NEM, the investment bank this month continued to rate Malaysia as a “big underweight” in emerging markets.

An underweight call is a recommendation to investors to reduce their investments in a particular security, asset class or, in this case, a country.

Malaysia managed to trim its underweight rating from over 50 per cent in November to 46 per cent this month but still only managed to come in second-last among the 15 countries studied by the investment bank.

This is despite the fact that emerging markets continue to be the equity region of choice for investors worldwide, with investments persisting at historically high levels.

Investors have so far greeted Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak’s highly anticipated NEM with disinterest, owing to lack of detailed policies, timelines and the apparent rollback of ambitious Bumiputera quota reforms detailed in the first half of the year.

The bold recommendations set out in the first part of the NEM to boost competitiveness by reducing quotas appear to have been sidelined in the second part launched recently.

Observers attribute this to stiff resistance from Malay rights groups concerned that such moves will erode the community’s interests.

Economists and political analysts have also criticised the NEM for its lack of innovative thinking and timidness, which they said does little to dispel lingering investor skepticism.

Malaysia also remains unattractive to Asia Pacific investors, with Merrill Lynch increasing its underweight rating four-fold for the country from November.

Topping the Asia Pacific list were strongly overweight Taiwan, Hong Kong, South Korea and China, with Singapore coming in fifth despite its downgrade to neutral.

Making up the rest of the underweight club were Southeast Asian nations Thailand, the Philippines and Indonesia, along with New Zealand, Australia and India.

Nonetheless, Malaysia looks set to end the year as the fourth fastest growing emerging market after China, India and Turkey, and is expected to remain number four in 2011.

Developed markets, which bore the brunt of the financial crisis, will continue to contract, with the possible exception of sluggish growth in Europe. Emerging markets, on the other hand, face the risk of overheating next year and increased likelihood of “policy mistakes” in the form of insufficient or excessive money tightening.

Merrill Lynch expects the ringgit’s outperformance this year to fade due to a likely 50 basis point interest rate hike over the next 12 months by Bank Negara Malaysia, in response to increasing private investment in the economy.

Slow implementation of the Economic Transformation Programme (ETP) due to political resistance and the low priority of fiscal consolidation were cited as possible risk factors to the national currency.

Also of concern were “some small risk” that Umno may lose more seats in the next general election — expected to take place next year — as well as higher inflation due to rising food and fuel prices.

The government embarked on a second wave of subsidy cuts earlier this month, which saw RON95, diesel and LPG prices go up by five sen per unit and sugar price increase by 20 sen per kg.

The price hikes are expected to put upward pressure on inflation, which Merrill Lynch predicts will rise from 1.8 per cent this year to 2.8 per cent next year, before dropping slightly to 2.5 per cent in 2012.

Malaysia’s real GDP growth is also expected to drop to 5.2 per cent in 2011 and 5.4 per cent in 2012 from the expected 7.2 per cent expansion this year, putting at risk the 6 per cent annual growth needed to propel the nation to high-income status by 2020.

KFC's Ayamas Expansion

For a change, let us hear about some new directions that KFC is taking.

KFC Holdings (Malaysia) Bhd (KFCH) currently has 50 Kedai Ayamas outlets in the country. It intends to open 25 new outlets in 2011.


Each outlet will cost RM350,000 and total investments will add up to RM9 million.

Kedai Ayamas will begin its new delivery service. It will be piloted at eight outlets in the Klang Valley, with an initial investment of RM200,000.

KFC believes that the delivery service is relatively untapped and a great potential avenue for revenue.

Thee spokesman also intimated that KFC opened 15 outlets this year and recorded a sales growth of 43 per cent in the first nine-months of this year when compared with the whole of  2009.

He added between 65 per cent and 70 per cent of the new outlets coming up next year would be located around the Klang Valley.

"With our roll-out plan, we expect to maintain a double-digit growth next year. Our customers prefer to go to our Kedai Ayamas outlets simply because we can guarantee the quality of our chicken," he said.

He also said the company had three processing plants in the country currently with a combined capacity to process about 140,000 chickens per day.

"Over 60 per cent of the chickens are distributed to our existing outlets while the remaining will be refined into further processed products to be sold under the brand name of Ayamas," he said.



KFCH is currently a unit of Johor Corporation via its subsidiary, Kulim (Malaysia) Bhd which holds a 57.5 per cent controlling stake in QSR Brands Bhd, which in turn controls KFCH.

The rise,fall and rise again of the shares of KFC for the year is most interesting within the intended corporate takeovers background.

KLK: Tighter Grip on Nitrile Latex Market

If you want to know of the latest corporate incursion of KL Kepong, you have to read Ooi Tee Ching's online article.in the Business times today.(16 December 2010)

Here is his article.



Kuala Lumpur Kepong's 19 per cent owned Yule Catto has bought PolymerLatex for RM1.85 billion

Kuala Lumpur Kepong Bhd (KLK) , which owns 19 per cent of Yule Catto & Co plc, is set to tighten its grip on the world’s supply of nitrile latex following the British firm’s 443 million pounds (RM1.85 billion) purchase of Germany’s PolymerLatex Group.

Chemical maker Yule Catto, listed on the London Stock Exchange, is already the owner of the Synthomer Group’s polymers business.

The PolymerLatex acquisition will bring together the world’s two biggest suppliers of butadiene or nitrile latex with a combined turnover of more than 1.2 billion pound and more than 2,000 employees.

Synthomer’s unit in Malaysia runs a 130,000-tonne per year nitrile plant in Kluang, Johor.

On the other hand, PolymerLatex operates a 100,000-tonne a year nitrile latex plant in Pasir Gudang, Johor.

Nitrile latex is used mainly to make synthetic rubber gloves.

KLK executive director Datuk Lee Hau Hian said the purchase will strengthen Yule Catto’s core business.

“It will allow Yule Catto to achieve cost synergy in research and product development,” Lee told Business Times yesterday.

Asked if a bigger sized Yule Catto could lead to price-fixing of nitrile latex, Lee said: “No, it will not because it takes two to make a deal. Both Yule Catto and nitrile glove makers must be happy in order for the industry to grow”.

Hartalega Holdings Bhd managing director Kuan Kam Hon said Yule Catto’s acquisition is a good thing for the former.

“I don’t think there’ll be any issue of price-fixing because there is no monopoly. The market is becoming bigger and we see new players from South Korea and Taiwan,” he said when contacted yesterday.

“When we source for nitrile latex, it’s not a decision based solely on price. Technical support is very important,” Kuan added.

Hartalega is the world’s largest nitrile glovemaker and is the biggest consumer of nitrile latex in Malaysia.

Yule Catto is issuing rights shares to fund the PolymerLatex purchase. Its investors are offered four new shares for each three they currently own at 116 pence.

KLK, in a filing to Bursa Malaysia on Tuesday, said it will take up all its rights.

This means the company will pay RM209.8 million for its portion.

Yule Catto chief executive Andrew Whitfield reportedly said the enlarged group could compete more effectively in a consolidating emulsion polymer market.

He expected the deal to allow it to achieve STG20 million (RM98.8 million) in cost savings.

So, if you are watching how KLK is performing in the medium term, this nitrile investment could be a net contributor of strategic significance.