China in the Driver's Seat

The continuing rise of China will help drive economic growth and development in Asia in the long term, according to David Ng, an economic analyst at HwangDBS Investment Management Bhd

He is confident that a sustainable economic recovery will take place in Asia (excluding Japan), mainly with China as its driving force.

“We also foresee that plenty of Asian-themed investment products will be made available to the public which we believe will feature strong upside stories,” he said in a statement today.

Ng said a new pecking order has emerging as a result of the financial crisis, adding that “we are picking up more positive signs that point to a definite recovery such as the narrowing of corporate spreads, a turnaround in the global diffusion index and higher equity valuations or price to earnings ratios”.

According to him, the current global economy is still relatively fragile and economic growth is expected to remain below its potential for a few more quarters before making its full recovery.

Ng said HwangDBS IM is bullish on the Asian markets, adding that growth signals pointed to Asia as the most economically dynamic region in the world.

“China is at the front and is seen to be aggressive in its approach to stimulating local growth and consumption. Increased lending by banks, higher real wages, a booming middle class and growing individual wealth will inevitably lead to higher disposable income and consumption,” he said.

Ng said in the near future, companies in Asia would be able to generate more income and over the long-term be considered lucrative stocks to hold as dividends become a big part of the total returns.

“We have identified a few multi-year investment themes that will drive long-term growth such as China’s economic growth, the burgeoning global middle class, ageing and changing population trends,” he said.

“China is certainly our favourite pick. Its enormous government stimulus spending of more than US$586 billion (RM1.9 trillion) and aggressive re-leveraging will prompt a rise in local asset prices.”

Ng also advised investors to exercise extra vigilance in choosing suitable products for themselves.

“Economic cycles are getting shorter and the pendulum swings both ways,” he said.

“Simple investment basics works in any economic environment. In today’s environment, investors should slowly average in the market and exercise discipline once investment goals are met.”

Good advice, I think.

Maximizing Maxis?

Yeoh Pooi Ling reporting in The STAR today recorded some analysts as saying that the final price at RM4.75 of the IPO is below expectation.

Maxis Bhd has now set the price of its initial public offering (IPO) shares at RM4.75 each while institutional and cornerstone tranches are at RM5 per share, which will collectively raise about RM11.2bil from the listing of 2.25 billion shares on Bursa Malaysia.

The market capitalisation at the institutional price and its enterprise value would amount to RM37.5bil and RM42.5bil respectively, said Maxis after the close of its book-building exercise yesterday.

The institutional offering book, excluding the offering to cornerstone investors and approved bumiputera investors, was 3.7 times covered or equivalent to RM19.3bil, comprising some 500 global investors.


The IPO attracted orders of over RM26.5bil via its various tranches, with strong demand from international and Malaysian investors.

Foreign interest came from leading institutional investors familiar with Malaysia, 10 institutional investors new to Malaysia with orders of RM1.3bil in Maxis shares, as well as sovereign wealth funds, it said.

The institutional offering will raise RM5.3bil, of which over US$800mil will be from foreign investors. The bumiputra investors and cornerstone tranches attracted RM5.2bil for one billion shares.

Cornerstone investors have agreed to hold their shares for six months from the listing date and would in return obtain a preferential allocation for the IPO.

These investors include the Employees Provident Fund, Fidelity Funds-Malaysia Fund, Kumpulan Wang Persaraan (Diperbadankan) and Permodalan Nasional Bhd.

The retail offering of 212.3 million shares was oversubscribed by 180% for 381.2 million shares worth RM2bil.

UOB Kay Hian (M) Holdings Sdn Bhd head of research Vincent Khoo said the final prices were below expectation, as “it was widely expected that the institutional price would be at RM5.20 per share.”

“At RM5 per share, there is a modest upside upon listing as most estimated valuations would not be more than RM5.50,” he told StarBiz.

OSK Investment Bank, in a report, said the final price, at the lower end of the indicative range of RM4.80 to RM5.50, was a reflection of the valuation appetite among institutions for the stock.

“Maxis should have no issue meeting its dividend obligations.” the research house said.

Maxis, upon its listing on Nov 19, would become a component of the FTSE Bursa Malaysia KL Composite Index and increase the capitalisation of the market by over 4%.

MIER:25th Top Think Tank in the World

Scenario Builders, data collectors, collators and analysts. In a survey of the top global think-tanks of 2008, the Malaysian Institute of Economic Research (MIER) has carved a name for itself as a credible private think-tank in emerging among the top 25 in Asia in 2008.

The ranking was based on the findings of the Think-Tanks and Civil Societies Programme by the University of Pennsylvania, the United States.

China's Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) topped the rankings list, followed by the Japan Institute of International Affairs (JIIA) and India's Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA).

"Of the 653 Asian think-tanks, we are 25th. I think this is an achievement to be proud of. Although a small institution, we are able to make a global impact," MIER executive director Professor Emeritus Datuk Dr Mohamed Ariff Abdul Kareem told Bernama in a recent interview.

He said the institute has been doing a lot of work not only for the government at both the state and federal levels, but also the private sector and international bodies such as the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank and the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (Escap).

Mohamed Ariff, who is stepping down from his position on Dec 31 after having helmed MIER for 12 years, said it had become an institution that is being recognised.

"I am pleased to say that our forecast has been very good. We may not hit the bull’s eye all the time but it has not been that far off. We are credible and establishing a good name," he added.

On why he was stepping down now and not waiting for the institute's silver jubilee in two years’ time, Mohamed Ariff said he had been around for a long time after having joined the organisation in June 1997.

He was previously a lecturer at Universiti Malaya.

He dispelled any notion that he was pressured to leave, saying it was purely voluntary

"It has been a long time. It is enough. Although it was a lot of stress, I enjoyed doing what I did," he said.

Having gone through two recessions and turbulent times together with the institute, he said the challenge for MIER had been to stay "alive".

"Because we are a self-financing institution and an independent think-tank, we have to say things in such a way that we don't sound anti-establishment. At the same time, we also want to be very objective," he explained.

According to Mohamed Ariff, his frustration and greatest challenge was during the last financial crisis.

"The local press was interested in positive news. The foreign press, on the other hand, wanted negative stories. We tried giving a balanced picture but were sometimes quoted out of context," he said.

He said one of the MIER's objective is to keep the people informed so they can arrive at their own decisions.

Mohamed Ariff was also encouraged by the feedback from the business community which showed that MIER was doing a great job and this is evident from them becoming members and attending its events.

He highlighted that MIER is governed by a board of trustees and by people who are working for the national interest.

"We are encouraged by all this. We are thus able to walk the tightrope, balancing ourselves through turbulent times, making comments that are useful and constructive and which can be an input into decision making while providing an alternative view", he said.

MIER is an independent, non-profit organisation devoted to economic, financial and business research that serves as a think-tank for the government and the private sector.

With the departure of Professor Emeritus Datuk Dr Mohamed Ariff Abdul Kareem, my guess is MIER will go down from the totem pole of the top ranking think-tanks of the world due to political gravity.

Wanna bet?