My Maiden Song in Commercial Writing!

Yes, it is in print! It is so popular that I could not even get an additional copy for marketing purposes!

I started on the project sometime before Chinese New Year 2009. It was to stretch into the third week of April.

It was a great feeling to get the okay from the client before it went to the printers.

I have accomplished this in such a short time. The period was about 2 months. I had only two meetings with the clients. Much of the work was done using the email.

I thank Almighty God for this first entry into the publishing world!

US Economy's Latest GDP Data

WASHINGTON, Sept 30 — The US economy contracted at slower pace than previously thought in the second quarter, but a further decline in private payrolls in September was another indication that recovery from recession would be patchy.

The Commerce Department said today gross domestic product fell at a 0.7 per cent annual rate instead of the 1.0 per cent decline reported last month. This was better than market expectations for a 1.2 per cent drop.

GDP, which measures total goods and services output within US borders, fell at a 6.4 per cent rate in the January-March period.

A separate survey by the ADP Employer Services showed private employers 254,000 jobs in September more than the 210,000 layoffs the market had been expecting. However it was less than the 277,000 jobs lost in August.

“It’s (GDP) not an earth-shaking revision, but it does show a healthier picture than before because domestic spending is less weak. It’s unlikely to change perceptions about the third-quarter outlook,” said Pierre Ellis, a senior economist at Decision Economics in New York.

US stock futures rose after the GDP report, regaining losses suffered after data on private sector employment showed more job losses than expected in September. Bond prices fell on the news, while the dollar rose against the euro.

The decline in GDP will probably mark the last quarter of contracting output for the US economy, which slipped into recession in December 2007. The economy is believed to have rebounded in the July-September quarter.

With the second-quarter contraction, the country’s real GDP has shrunk for four straight quarters for the first time since government records started in 1947.

The shallow decline in activity in the second quarter reflected more moderate drops in consumer spending and business investment than previously thought, the report showed.

Consumer spending, which normally accounts for over two-thirds of US economic activity, fell at a 0.9 percent rate in the second quarter — smaller than the previously estimated 1.0 per cent decline. Spending rose at a 0.6 per cent rate in the previous quarter.

Business investment fell at a 9.6 per cent rate in the second quarter instead of 10.9 per cent, reflecting slightly better demand for software than previously thought. It tumbled 39.2 per cent in the first quarter.

Weak domestic demand meant businesses continued to reduce their stock of unsold goods. Business inventories plunged by a record US$160.2 billion (RM891 billion) in the second quarter rather than the US$159.2 billion drop estimated by the government last month. Stockpiles of unsold goods fell by US$113.9 billion in the first quarter.

The drop in inventories subtracted 1.42 percentage points from second-quarter GDP, the department said. Excluding inventories, GDP rose 0.7 per cent in the second quarter compared to a 4.1 per cent decline in the first quarter.

Rebuilding of inventories is expected to be one of the main drivers of the economy’s recovery. Economists agree that the recovery, which is also aided by government spending, is already under way.

However there are doubts over its strength and sustainability because of weak consumer spending as the economy continues to bleed jobs.

The department said corporate profits after taxes rose 0.9 per cent, much lower than the 2.9 per cent it estimated last month. It compared to analysts’ forecasts for 3.0 per cent growth.

After tax corporate profits increased 1.3 per cent in the first quarter.

Investment in nonresidential structures fell at a 17.3 per cent rate compared to a 43.6 per cent drop in the January-March quarter. Residential investment, at the heart of the worst US recession in seven decades, dropped at a 23.3 per cent rate in the second quarter. It fell 38.2 per cent in the first quarter.

There was encouraging news on the trade front. Exports fell at a smaller 4.1 per cent rate instead of the 5 per cent drop reported last month, the department said. Exports plunged 29.9 per cent in the first quarter.
Trade with buyers and suppliers from around the world on Alibaba.com!

There were positive contributions from the federal, state and local government during the second quarter.

A National Association of Purchasing Management-New York survey showed business activity in New York City surged to a near three-year high in September, building on recent optimism about local economic conditions.

Separately, the Mortgage Bankers Association said mortgage applications fell last week despite the lowest loan rates in four months, an indication the housing market would likely recover slowly from its three-year plunge. — Reuters

The World is in Debt!

The International Monetary Fund today lowered its estimate for global writedowns for banks and other financial institutions to US$3.4 trillion (RM11.8 trillion) but warned that loan losses were set to rise as unemployment grew.

In April the IMF estimated in its Global Financial Stability Report that global bank losses could reach US$4 trillion but said it cut the figure by US$600 billion to reflect rising securities values and new methodology for calculating writedowns.

“Global financial stability has improved, but risks remain elevated and the risk of reversal remains significant,” the IMF said. It added that the economic downturn was troughing but the recovery in advanced economies would be extremely slow.

The report said that while banks have enough capital to survive, their earnings are not expected to fully offset writedowns expected over the next 18 months.

It said stronger action was needed to bolster bank capital and earnings capacity to ensure banks could support a recovery.

The Fund said while private-sector credit growth has contracted in big economies, overall borrowing needs have not slowed as quickly because of burgeoning government deficits.

“The likely result is constrained credit availability,” it said, adding that continued support by central banks may be required to alleviate this.

Using new methodology to calculate the writedowns, the IMF said bank losses on loans and securities holdings amounted to US$1.3 trillion through the first half of 2009, with new writedowns of about US$1.5 trillion still needed through the end of 2010.

The report said US institutions were about 60 per cent through their needed writedowns, while their euro area and British counterparts had recognized only 40 per cent of losses.

DEAL WITH IT

It said loan losses are expected to account for around two thirds of total writedowns between 2007 and 2010, with housing the hardest hit in the United States and foreign loans the big contributors to loan losses in Britain and the euro area.

The IMF urged authorities to deal with troubled assets still on banks’ books, adding that reassuring stress test results and signs of economic stabilisation have eased pressure to deal with the toxic debt.

“Authorities, banks and investors need to persevere with these programs,” the IMF said, adding that in countries where banks were undercapitalised, such toxic assets should be ringfenced to reassure markets about future losses.

“Only when this source of uncertainty has been substantially reduced can banks fully participate in providing credit for recovery,” the IMF said.
Alibaba.com - Fast & easy sourcing right from your computer

The Fund said financial conditions in emerging markets have improved thanks to strong policies but estimated that companies faced foreign currency debt refinancing needs of US$400 billion over the next two years. — Reuters