April 15, 2010

Soros Warns the World!

This is an interesting report from Bloomberg.


Railway porter-turned-billionaire financier George Soros has delivered a stark warning that the financial world is on the wrong track and that we may be hurtling towards an even bigger boom and bust than in the credit crisis.
The man who "broke" the Bank of England (and who is still able to earn $US3.3 billion in a year) said the same strategy of borrowing and spending that had got us out of the Asian crisis could shunt us towards another crisis unless tough lessons are learnt.
Mr Soros, who worked as a porter to pay for his studies at the London School of Economics after emigrating from Hungary, warned that modern economics had got it wrong and that markets are not inherently stable.
“The success in bailing out the system on the previous occasion led to a superbubble, except that in 2008 we used the same methods,” he told a meeting hosted by The Economist in London on Tuesday night.
“Unless we learn the lessons, that markets are inherently unstable and that stability needs to the objective of public policy, we are facing a yet larger bubble.
“We have added to the leverage by replacing private credit with sovereign credit and increasing national debt by a significant amount."
Slow recovery
US Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke delivered his own warning on Wednesday, saying the pace of the US recovery would not be quick and that "significant" time would be needed to claw back jobs lost in the recession.
"If the pace of recovery is moderate, as I expect, a significant amount of time will be required to restore the 8½ million jobs that were lost [in the US] during the past two years," he told lawmakers.
The Fed chairman said data suggested demand would be enough to "promote a moderate economic recovery in coming quarters", as the US continues its tough slog out of recession.
He pointed to improved consumer spending - traditionally a strong driver of the US economy - as one factor aiding the recovery.
"Going forward, consumer spending should be aided by a gradual pick-up in jobs and earnings, the recovery in household wealth from recent lows, and some improvement in credit availability."
But he warned that the economy continued to face strong headwinds.
"I am particularly concerned about the fact that, in March, 44 per cent of the unemployed had been without a job for six months or more."
Echoing recent comments that the world's largest economy must act swiftly to curb its soaring budget deficits, Mr Bernanke took his tough message straight to Congress.
He warned lawmakers they faced "difficult choices" in cutting the country's deficit and that action could not be delayed.
"Addressing the country's fiscal problems will require difficult choices, but postponing them will only make them more difficult," he told them.
He warned "the poor fiscal condition of many state and local governments" remained a restraint on the pace of economic recovery.
Debt spiral
In his speech at the City of London's Haberdashers' Hall, Mr Soros also spoke out against the international community's efforts to help debt-laden Greece recover, London's Daily Telegraph reported.
The financier said the International Monetary Fund and the eurozone countries that are stepping in to lend money to Greece had proposed a rescue package that could still send the troubled nation into a debt spiral.
"It is a question of solvency," Mr Soros said.
"If you start charging very high rates as the market does in anticipation of solvency then that pushes you into insolvency."
He said the package, which was finalised on the weekend, should offer concessional interest rates, rather than the 5 per cent on offer from eurozone countries and 2.7 per cent from the IMF.
"While 5 per cent is better than what the market is willing to offer, a rescue package should offer concessional rates," he said.
"If they don't [reach their debt reduction target], they have then to tighten even further, then your tax receipts go down and the economy goes further into tanking and then you go into a debt spiral.
"That is the danger that is still remaining."
Mr Soros also called for the "oligopoly" formed by the four largest banks in the United States to be broken up.
He said he was supportive of the so-called Volcker rule, an American proposal to block banks from taking part in proprietary trading and owning hedge funds or private equity operations, Bloomberg reported.

Hulu Selangor: PKR's Do or Die!

Well, after all the hullabaloo, Samy Velu and a big proportion of the MIC divisions took the bitter pill and swallowed it with unwarranted saliva. Again, the UMNO boys called the shots. Again, MIC they felt cheated and belittled and left our of the big league.


For once they felt like the PPP. It looks like the beginning of the end for the MIC which cannot even put up their own choice of candidate in so-called 'MIC allocated seats'. For Samy Vellu, he had to announce the time-line when he leaves the post of MIC president in 2012.

Let us shift back to the crux of the post. Is this the Waterloo for PKR and Zaid Ibrahim? Is this a referendum on the PKR-led government in the state of Selangor by Khalid Ibrahim? With all the in-fighting between MIC and UMNO, will a stranger called Kamalanathan  please stand up to claim his candidature of BN? Apparently he is also not from Hulu Selangor.

The Hulu Selangor seat is for the BN to win and the PR to lose. After the serious dent to the PKR when so many MPs and State Assemblymen have deserted the political battlefield to claimed independence, the apparent signs are PKR is undergoing a baptism by fire. Will they lose the Hulu Selangor seat as well?

Let us look at BN first. This compromise candidate is a bad omen. It is bad for Samy Velu. It is bad for the MIC division leaders in Hulu Selangor. We just do not know how the voters in MIC or the larger public is going to vote. If the voter turn-out is bad, credit it to protest from both MIC and also UMNO. Do not expect MCA,Gerakan and PPP to do magic here. They cannot even save their political souls.


As for the PKR, Zaid is a more commendable candidate. His principles has been shown to be above board. As for his wealth, he did make money through his earlier UMNO relationship. However, the money he earned is above board. He is no stranger to politics . He commands the respect of the public particularly those who wants to see transparency and an end to corrupt practices. That he is a stranger to Hulu Selangor cuts no water. He will have political representatives stationed at his political office if he wins the seat.

When nomination day comes by expect at least 2 independents. We do not know who have planted them here. They could also be selling themselves to the highest bidder.

There could also be a spoiler from Hindraf. This could spell trouble for both PR and BN.

So, it is an uphill battle for BN's Kamalanathan who is as yet unknown to Hulu Selangor. With the competing factions and friction between UMNO and MIC and intra-MIC rivalries, this Johnny-come-lately may lose as a consequence. If he wins, it will be marginal.

As for Zaid, a loss is not good for him personally. The same goes for Anwar and Khalid.

Let us see further developments until polling day on 25 April 2010.

Mier revises Malaysia's growth forecast to 5.2%


This is a news article from the online STAR written by Edy Sarif.

Here is the report.

The Malaysian Institute of Economic Research (Mier) has revised its gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for this year to 5.2% from 3.7% after seeing improvement in consumer and business confidence.

Its director Dr Zakariah Abdul Rashid said the upward revision was also based on signs of a global economic recovery and higher commodity prices.

“The recent data on private consumption and export has shown an improvement, especially in the last quarter of 2009 and this year’s first quarter,” he told reporters on the sidelines of the 15th Corporate Economic Briefing.

He also said the country’s economic growth was forecast to reach 5% year-on-year in 2011.
However, Zakariah declined to comment on the recent forecast of growth rates by JPMorgan, which projected Malaysia’s economy would grow by 7.7% this year.

He said that Mier’s Consumer Sentiment Index and Business Conditions Index were higher by 4.6 points and 5.2 points respectively quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter this year.

“All sector indices recorded modest gains in the first quarter, with the exception of Retail Trade Index and CEO Confidence Index,” he said.

Private consumption improved further by 1.7% in the fourth quarter last year, producing a small growth of 0.8% in 2009 supported by strengthening consumer confidence and labour market prospects.

“Mier expects private consumption to accelerate by 5.6% this year and a further 6.8% in 2011. Exports and imports of goods and services are expected to rise by 8.2% and 8.8% respectively this year,” Zakariah said.
He added that on a sector basis, Mier expected the agriculture sector to expand by 2.6% this year and 2.2% in 2011 on robust consumption of palm oil by China, India and the euro zone, as well as firmer global commodity prices.

“Global economic recovery is expected to boost the production and consumption of crude oil further in 2010-2011. Higher global demand for electronic chips will propel manufacturing growth to 6.2% year-on-year in 2010, and easing to 3.4% in 2011 on base effects,” he said.

Zakariah said the Mier Residential Property Index was up 12.3 points in the first quarter this year as property demand was anticipated to continue moving up owing to the current low interest rate regime, attractive financing packages by developers, a stronger economic recovery and a prominent asset reflation theme.
He said overall consumer price index was expected to grow by 2.2% this year.

Touching on the ringgit, Zakariah said Mier believed it was still undervalued and would possibly touch 3.00 to the US dollar by the end of the year.

“The strengthening of the ringgit is in line with the appreciation of other regional currencies, such as the yuan against the US dollar. The ringgit will be moving in a direction that will accommodate the long-term growth of the Malaysian economy,” he said.

On the overnight policy rate (OPR), Zakariah said it was expected to settle at 2.7% by end-2010 as core inflation had been raising faster than overall inflation and firmer economic expansion would further lift the OPR to 3.25% next year.

[It is interesting to note that MIER continues to be as conservative as the Government is their forecast. Are they playing safe?]

Is This the Way of Love?




This is another lovely poem titled, " The Way of Love". Read on and cherish it.
WAY OF LOVE (Chung Yee Chung)

i
you came
like the rain
without warning
then you are the sun
burns me
consumes me
and i to marry your warmth
almost like a shadow?

ii

i stood
a woman ........apart
but you never walked
...............................over
and i am still
..................standing

iii

you could have made
a most royal subject
worn your armour
and charged your steed
you could have swept me
off my feet-
instead
you wore your heart
on a sleeve
and asked for love
i could not give

so i left you
a broken king
wounded your pride
when i could not queen

iv

between us
there are bridges of words
your eyes could never burn-

it isn't through
a lack of desire
to set up what is a fire
but where lips touch
and hands meet
can never hope to reach

the loneliness beneath
the loneliness beneath

v

touch is not all-
feeling at home with it
i've grown numb
to its call
.........somehow

now
what hammers out
this perverse passion
...............................to kill
...............................to will

you in entirely

is love
is what it's all about

 

Poem most Beautiful: Pablo Neruda

 This is a lovely poem written by Pablo Neruda. Enjoy

TONIGHT I CAN WRITE (Pablo Neruda)

Tonight I can write the saddest lines.

Write, for example, 'The night is starry
and the stars are blue and shiver in the distance.'

The night wind revolves in the sky and sings.

Tonight I can write the saddest lines.
I loved her, and sometimes she loved me too.

Through nights like this one I held her in my arms.
I kissed her again and again under the endless sky.

She loved me, sometimes I loved her too.
How could one not have loved her great still eyes?

Tonight I can write the saddest lines.
To think that I do not have her. To feel that I have lost her.

To hear the immense night, still more immense without her.
And the verse falls to the soul like dew to the pasture.

What does it matter that my love could not keep her.
The night is starry and she is not with me.

This is all. In the distance someone is singing.
My soul is not satisfied that it has lost her.

My sight tries to find her as though to bring her closer.
My heart looks for her, and she is not with me.

The same night whitening the same trees.
We, of that time, are no longer the same.

I no longer love her, that's certain, but how I loved her.
My voice tried to find the wind to touch her hearing.

Another's. She will be another's. As she was before my kisses.
Her voice, her bright body. Her infinite eyes.

I no longer love her, that's certain, but maybe I love her.
Love is so short, forgetting is so long.

Because through nights like this one I held her in my arms
my soul is not satisfied that it has lost her.

Though this be the last pain that she makes me suffer
and these the last verses that I write for her.