China: The View from Fidelity International

'No, not yet,' said Anthony Bolton,Fidelity International's star fund manager. He has reversed his decision to retire citing that investments in China is too compelling for him to take the back seat right now.

Fidelity has just announced that Bolton will run a China equity fund; to be launched some time in the first quarter of 2010. Fidelity currently has three portfolio managers managing China funds with more than US$4 billion (RM13.57 billion) in assets.

Bolton says very few things would have persuaded him to come back — but China is one of them. “This year, or almost certainly next year, China will overtake Japan to become the second-largest economy in the world,” he says.

“I think in my lifetime, China will become the second-biggest stock market in the world. The center of gravity is shifting. That's why I want to play a part while I still have the chance.”

Over 28 years from 1979, Bolton ran Fidelity's Special Situations Fund, chalking up enviable annualized returns of 19.5 per cent, and easily beating the FTSE All Share Index return of 13.5 per cent. This means that £1,000 (RM5,551) invested over the period would have grown to £148,200.

Bolton announced his retirement in 2006 and the Special Situations Fund was split in half, partly to cushion the blow of his departure for investors. Over the past 18 months, he has been mentoring younger managers and analysts, first in the UK and more recently in Hong Kong. He and his wife will move to Hong Kong next year.

While details of the fund itself are sparse for now, Bolton aims to bring his value style to the table and tap on Fidelity's team of analysts for research. “I've invested for a long time. I can compare some things that are happening in China with what happened in developing markets in Europe,” he says. “Valuation has always been at the heart of my approach, but I'll also spend time evaluating franchises and looking for franchises that can grow in the long-term in China, and assessing management teams.”

The arguments in favour of China's ascent are familiar — low levels of government and consumer debt, and the emergence of consumers to drive the domestic economy.

“In September, I said I was worried about the West going forward,” Bolton says. “Once the recovery period runs out of steam, which I think will be in the first half of next year, the economies of the West will see slower growth than they saw before the crisis. It's because of the cost of solving the crisis.

“Governments have borrowed large amounts. It has succeeded in getting us out of the crisis, but I think it means that to some extent they have mortgaged the future.

“Faster growth will be seen in economies such as China, where growth is driven by domestic infrastructure and spending. You're going to see even more money flowing into the region.

“If you take the typical British investor with 15-20 per cent of his equity money in emerging markets and the majority in developed markets, for the next few years he should have the majority of his money in emerging markets and the minority in developed markets.”

Bolton has been following China since 2004 and has been investing there since 2005. Some 5 per cent of the Special Situations Fund was invested in Chinese stocks.

On the market cycle, he reckons the “bargain” stage is over. “I think we're still in the first part of the bull market, which will be multi-year,” he says.

“That applies as much in developed economies. But I think the faster growth and the best returns in the next few years will be in the developing world. It would have been lovely if we had launched this fund in the beginning of this year. I was optimistic about markets in the first part of the year. But I don't think valuations are as yet in the expensive phase when one should be more cautious. They're in line with long-term valuations. They can go further from here.”

Investors should note that Bolton famously called a bottom to the bear market in April.

On whether value investing works in China, where the stock market is often momentum-driven, he cites empirical research that valuation has been the biggest generator of 'alpha' or out-performance in emerging markets.

“My strong belief is that value works,” he says. “In general, I've been meeting a number of Chinese companies which I think are as good or very similar to (companies) in the UK or continental Europe.'

Bolton is expected to run the new fund independently from the three other Fidelity China portfolio managers, although he will tap into a common pool of analysts and infrastructure.

So, how do you like the insights and the analysis thus far.

It make sense, I think.

Worldly Ways: The Profound Truth

Ben Stein recited these remarks on CBS Sunday Morning. It is very profoundly written. Read on.

" My confession:

I am a Jew, and every single one of my ancestors was Jewish. And it does not bother me even a little bit when people call those beautiful lit up, bejeweled trees, Christmas trees. I don't feel threatened. I don't feel discriminated against. That's what they are, Christmas trees.

It doesn't bother me a bit when people say, 'Merry Christmas' to me. I don't think they are slighting me or getting ready to put me in a ghetto. In fact, I kind of like it.It shows that we are all brothers and sisters celebrating this happy time of year. It doesn't bother me at all that there is a manger scene on display at a key intersection near my beach house in Malibu . If people want a creche, it's just as fine with me as is the Menorah a few hundred yards away.

I don't like getting pushed around for being a Jew, and I don't think Christians like getting pushed around for being Christians. I think people who believe in God are sick and tired of getting pushed around, period. I have no idea where the concept came from, that America is an explicitly atheist country. I can't find it in the Constitution and I don't like it being shoved down my throat.

Or maybe I can put it another way: where did the idea come from that we should worship celebrities and we aren't allowed to worship God as we understand Him? I guess that's a sign that I'm getting old, too. But there are a lot of us who are wondering where these celebrities came from and where the America we knew went to.

In light of the many jokes we send to one another for a laugh, this is a little different: This is not intended to be a joke; it's not funny, it's intended to get you thinking.

Billy Graham's daughter was interviewed on the Early Show and Jane Clayson asked her 'How could God let something like this happen?' (regarding Hurricane Katrina).. Anne Graham gave an extremely profound and insightful response. She said, 'I believe God is deeply saddened by this, just as we are, but for years we've been telling God to get out of our schools, to get out of our government and to get out of our lives. And being the gentleman He is, I believe He has calmly backed out. How can we expect God to give us His blessing and His protection if we demand He leave us alone?'

In light of recent events... terrorists attack, school shootings, etc. I think it started when Madeleine Murray O'Hare (she was murdered, her body found a few years ago) complained she didn't want prayer in our schools, and we said OK. Then someone said you better not read the Bible in school. The Bible says thou shalt not kill; thou shalt not steal, and love your neighbor as yourself.. And we said OK.

Then Dr. Benjamin Spock said we shouldn't spank our children when they misbehave, because their little personalities would be warped and we might damage their self-esteem (Dr. Spock's son committed suicide). We said an expert should know what he's talking about. And we said okay.

Now we're asking ourselves why our children have no conscience, why they don't know right from wrong, and why it doesn't bother them to kill strangers, their classmates, and themselves.

Probably, if we think about it long and hard enough, we can figure it out. I think it has a great deal to do with 'WE REAP WHAT WE SOW.'

Funny how simple it is for people to trash God and then wonder why the world's going to hell. Funny how we believe what the newspapers say, but question what the Bible says. Funny how you can send 'jokes' through e-mail and they spread like wildfire, but when you start sending messages regarding the Lord, people think twice about sharing. Funny how lewd, crude, vulgar and obscene articles pass freely through cyberspace, but public discussion of God is suppressed in the school and workplace.

Are you laughing yet?

Funny how when you forward this message, you will not send it to many on your address list because you're not sure what they believe, or what they will think of you for sending it.

Funny how we can be more worried about what other people think of us than what God thinks of us.

My Best Regards, Honestly and respectfully,

Ben Stein"

What a gem of a article!

Japan-Deflation and On set of Recession again?

Troubled signs are in the air once again for the Japanese economy.

Reuters reported on Nov 27 that Japanese consumer price index [excluding volatile food and energy prices] slid in the year to October at the fastest rate since 2001 with increasing signs that weak demand is weighing on prices, while a tumbling dollar adds to price pressures.

This data will put more government pressure for a Bank of Japan policy response to deflation and a possible return to recession.

“Deflation and yen strengthening could significantly damage Japan’s economy, so the government and the Bank of Japan would need to do something,” said Takeshi Minami, chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute.

The so-called core-core consumer price index, similar to the core index used in the United States, fell 1.1 per cent and matched a record from 2001, the last time Japan slid into deflation, as companies slashed prices of electronics and package tours to lure households to spend.

“It’s hard to judge what the BOJ may do. One option would be for the central bank to announce a commitment to markets that it will keep low rates for some time. That way it can push down money market rates further,” Minami said.

The core consumer price index, which excludes volatile fresh fruit, vegetable and seafood prices but includes oil products, fell 2.2 per cent in October from a year earlier, sliding for an eighth straight month and matching a median market forecast.

The dollar slumped to a 14-year low of 84.82 yen today as investors shunned riskier assets due to concerns about Dubai’s debt problems.

The dollar’s fall may deepen Japan’s woes, hurting exports and deepening deflation by pushing down import prices.

“The yen rise is really picking up recently, and as a result it seems that core CPI prices are probably going to fall by at least 1 per cent on a year/year basis for a while,” said Yoshikiyo Shimamine, chief economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute.

In a rare positive sign, Japan’s jobless rate fell to 5.1 per cent from 5.3 per cent in October, lower than a median market forecast of 5.4 per cent.

Household spending rose 1.6 per cent in October from a year earlier, more than double the median market forecast for a 0.7 per cent rise.

Japan’s economy grew at the fastest pace in more than two years in the third quarter as stimulus lifted consumer spending and capital spending rose, but analysts say growth will slow as falling wages reduce the lure of subsidies on cars and electronics.

The government said last week the economy was back in deflation for the first time since 2006 in view of slides in consumer prices and nominal GDP, and huge slack in the economy as measured by the GDP gap.

The BOJ has forecast three years of deflation to March 2012 but raised its assessment on the economy to say it is picking up, despite grumbling of the government, which is worried about deflation and another recession in the world’s No.2 economy. — Reuters