Is the Truth Coming Home to Roost At Last?

Under Siege?

Reading the article by Moaz Nair in the Malaysia Chronicle  today titled,  "PAS and PKR Already Replacing UMNO Baru: A New Paradigm in Malays Politics"  is indeed like a soul being bared for all to see.

Is there truthfulness in his assertions?

Is UMNO now chiefly  driven by the nefarious money motive with non-Malay business people participating in the background??   Has UMNO become so bad that his hypothesis may just hold water?

Moonlight Aglimmer?

The truth is somewhere in between, out there possibly not being the dominant culture of UMNO as yet but the wind-vane of politics is pointing that way and at increased speed velocity especially with the exposure of the flammable  NFC debacle, the mysterious Musa Aman-Michael Chia  millions and the almost amusing Nazri episode with the Hummer.

I wonder whether it is UMNO's own undoing that is creating all these problems, slowly unearthing worms in concealed cans thus far?

Graft Busting

While PAS plays the religious card to their advantage and with PKR playing on the corruption issues with such intensity, the scenario may see the propensity of more semi-urban seats falling into the hands of the Opposition,  particularly those allocated to MCA, Gerakan, MIC and PPP.

Even traditional UMNO seats  may fell to PR if they put in strong, capable and trusty second echelon leaders.

I wonder what will be PM Najib's strategy in the face of this possible sea-change if it should come.

Good Feelings,Bad Feelings, Loyalty and Ignorance

The true test of voting strength comes the 13th Ge will be underpinned by 4 main factors.

As they ready themselves to mark an X on the ballot paper,what prevails over them?

Feel good, do good

If it is an immensely good feeling they have over a candidate or its party, then the X will find its mark.

Similarly,if he possessed bad feelings toward a party or that particular candidate, the other guy gets his vote.

Adamant adversarial voter

Then we have the issue of loyalty to consider. For some, they are loyalists through and through. No amount of cajoling or persuasion can work on them on the eve of the election. They are driven and most party are happy with these kind of voters. They are a sure bet!

Mostly blind to any cause

Lastly, we have the ignorant ones. These you can influence as they near the polling station. Once they get a picture in their mind based on the last sliver of information drummed into them, then like sheep to the slaughter, they will just vote for that party or person.

Easiest to sucker in

If we can roughly have a ball-park figure of the voters that can be influenced based on these 4 factors then we can do some particularly close prediction.

Can we do this for the forthcoming 13th GE?

Battle of the Giants in Pekan

Not the Underdog

Hadi Awang has thrown down the gauntlet. He is all mailed up to do challenge on the home-ground of PM Najib in Pekan.

Given all the furor and statements made by  UMNO that Hadi will be a lamb for the sacrifice, the wise Tok Guru of Kelantan has supported PAS's gambit. He is definitely watching to see how UMNO will take this challenge. The Malay has a word for this-Gentar! 

This is equivalent to Bush's 'Shock and Awe!'

The White Robe Challenger

For PR, there is really nothing to really lose  if Hadi can indeed fell goliathic Najib in his own home state and in Pekan for it can only mean the streets to Putrajaya are literally wide open and ready to receive Pakatan Rakyat (PR)  to take over the nation ad rule for the next five years.

On the shorter term, this move could possibly be used as a measure to give PAS an early signal and strategy in the making if they should also take on Muhyideen as well and all the other UMNO leaders in one go, in a blitzkrieg manner.

What is the basis for Hadi's confidence in throwing down the challenge? Is he reading the right political palms? Looking around who could really challenge Najib? None.

Perhaps, Hadi has an even chance, even if it is to the extent to embarrass Najib by taking a meaningful and sufficient chunk of Pekan's voters.

For PR, even if they lose to Najib in Pekan, it is a worthwhile gambit as it  shows how berani dan sanggup the leaders of PR can be-to put their money where their mouth is.

To UMNO detractors-Hadi's futile move could be labeled easily as berani bodoh!

Balrog versus Gandalf

Whatever the remarks and comments, this is one battle royale we must all watch as the 13th GE draws near.

For many, it has been a long while when we last saw the battles of the giants!