The Politics of Attrition

Post March 8,2008 has experienced some interesting development on both sides of the political divide. The trend is continuing decay by attrition.

On the BN side,PM Najib has tried to retain the old and he has put in some new faces into his Cabinet. However, he has left Khairy Jamaluddin the ex-Premier son-in-law out in the cold. This has drawn flak from mostly the younger UMNO members. These personalities will have a tougher time retaining their political posts at the next election.Again, some faces were routinely shifted to ambassadorial positions.
Retaining some old faces continue to be an issue.

There have also been some reshuffling of UMNO liaison chiefs at the state level which seems to be good. The recent Manik Urai by-elections showed that with a new man in Kelantan, things are turning rosy once more.

On the MCA side, things have unraveled once again. Despite Najib's effort to provide some role to Chua Soi Lek, the Deputy, in BN, ugly attempts to bring Chua to the MCA Disciplinary Committee in early August is going to turn nasty between rival factions. Moreover, rumours abound that some old guards led by Chua Jui Meng are deserting the party for PKR.

As for Gerakan, it has actually lost everything. Koh Tsu Koon's ascension as a Senator and Minister in the Prime Minister's Department is generally inconsequential. The party will likely disappear into dust come the next election.

As for the MIC, despite not in the Cabinet, Samy Vellu continued to show strength. However, there are no good quality leaders to succeed him and so battle royales can be expected. The registration of a HINDRAF party will also cause MIC some concern as it will certainly take away votes. Those in MIC who do not like the strutting manner of Samy will likely join this new party.

PPP is already a goner and will be in limbo come the next election.

The only parties in BN that will likely be standing strong are from Sabah and Sarawak.

As for the Pakatan Rakyat, PAS's apparent invincibility has been tested in Manik Urai. It is now more vulnerable than ever before. The party is split right in the centre between the Erdogans and the fundamentalists. The very fact that half the party is willing to meet up with UMNO to discuss Malay and Muslim Unity does not bode well for the party currently. Its weakness is shining through the chinks in its armour.

As for the DAP, the Perak debacle has caused undue strain on the party. Not only have they lost power in Perak to BN, they have been constantly kept on their toes by scandals, the High Chapparal issue and MACC action. They may be weakened a little bit both through intra and inter- coalition party struggles but generally they will remain strong because of loyal ground support.

PKR is the joker in the pack-the weakest link in Pakatan Rakyat. They have all kinds of opportunists in their ranks and their patriotism to PKR is at best, suspect. All BN needs to do is to create dissension and all hell will break loose in PKR. PKR is likely to lose its control in all states come to next election if it does not clean house.

Looking at the total picture, it is weak on both sides but there is a better chance of rebuilding in BN than in Pakatan Rakyat.

With Anwar fighting Sodomy II, I wonder whether his charisma can stand him in good stead to discipline the hotheads within PKR and at the same time make sure that PAS and DAP can still see eye to eyee on many issues to maintain harmony in Pakatan Rakyat until the next General election.