Daim Zainuddin, who apparently was given credit for predicting the losses of BN in the last election, is now giving his prediction for the 13 GE.
The forthcoming GE will be held in mid 2012,he forecasted. And his premise for saying so?
He believes the longer the wait, the greater the possibility that Barisan Nasional (BN) would make more mistakes.Similarly, he foresee the Pakatan Rakyat (PR) would bicker among its component parties, as time goes by.As such, a long wait has no advantages to both sides.Very ambivalent observation-not very helpful.
He believes Najib who is seeking a new mandate for the first time, has the edge but the ambition to get back its two-thirds majority in the Parliament is "not very practical". What underpins this observation?
He paints the following scenario.
Daim said PR parties are beginning to fight among themselves for seats as every one of them wants to form the government, wants to have more people's representatives because they are confident the Chinese will vote for them. I do not know how he has read these.
This happens all the time in every election but finally a decision, however difficult, has to be made. If at all Daim is correct, it will be true for Keadilan candidates with its 'frog' problems and the situation may be faced in Sabah.
Daim must also remember that some section of UMNO is now asking for a review of the seat arrangement for BN's component parties; possibly taking over some of the seats of its BN friends. This could caused issues and problems particularly between UMNO, MCA and Gerakan.
However, to my mind, there could be little conflict between PAS and Keadilan if the latter takes on suburban constituencies which are urbane in nature and favours their political approach and stance while PAS take on the more rural constituencies that continues to be steep in religion. This is one aspect that BN should really focus upon.
Daim has ruled out the dissolution of the Parliament this month or the next and believes the general election would most likely be held during the next school holidays (May 26 to June 10).
He said the prime minister can call for the election the moment he thinks BN has a very good chance to win.Timing is all important for BN to win.
He said irrespective of race, the urbanites are angry about traffic jams, criminal activities and high living costs, but Umno does not understand this, believing that the Malays will forever support the party. Daim, you have this spot on. Education, information and communication technology can be real equalizers, don't you agree?
Once you have achieved a certain level of education and can go and surf the internet,the premise that voters will vote solely on racial lines becomes untenable.
Daim said BN was able to win with two-thirds majority for five consecutive times under Mahathir because he made sure the issues facing the people were addressed before calling for elections.
"You must understand how the people feel. The needs of young people, urbanites, and the Malays, Chinese and Indians who live in flats are the same.
"But the kampung folk are different. As such Najib needs to visit them, talk to them and understand their needs."
Daim said although BN still has the edge in the next general election, if the BN performs worse than before Najib may have to step down. Asked if BN can regain the two-thirds majority, Daim said it is "a good vision, but (BN) should be more practical". I think Daim is being a realist here.
He said BN must fight in order to win.
"Should it lose more seats, Umno will let him (Najib) go, this is politics."
Asked for the possible successor should this happen, Daim quoted the Malay proverb "Patah tumbuh, hilang berganti" (whatever broken will grow back, whatever lost will be replaced), saying that, for better or worse, someone will take over.
Najib said he wants two-thirds majority, he must do better than former prime minister Tun Abdullah Ahmad Badawi did, otherwise he will only have to say bye-bye, opined Daim.
However, he said, if the country's economy is strong, Umno is united and the BN displays team spirit, Najib will have the advantage. I find these 3 ifs really troubling right now.
If Najib goes, then according to Daim; by convention, the party No 2 would take over, but anything can happen, there may be challenger which is not new in politics, he said, adding that this is politics, and everyone wants to be the prime minister. I like his angle about a potential third man hiding in the arras. Who can he be? What has Daim against Muhyiddin?
According to Daim, Najib's administration has performed better than the previous administration. You can see changes, he listens to the people, abolished the Internal Security Act, and declared war on corruption. All these are what the people want. Because you represent the people, you must listen to their voices. I wonder whether what Najib has done so far has really endeared himself to the multi-racial voters. [Many are of the opinion that he has done PR work and re-packaging but the contents remain dismally the same.]
"If you hold a differing view, you must explain the reasons and use logic to convince them. The public is rational, if you want to convince them, explain to them nicely, reach out to them, tell them your plans and that you are aware of the consequences." Is Najib doing this? Again, many do not like his transactional approach.
On the other hand, if those in power adopt the "shut up and toe the line, we are the best" attitude, they would be in danger. My fears,exactly.
He said the country needs political stability and economic growth, otherwise we will face many problems as the world economic slows down. [I think the economy will really slow down in the next half of 2012.]
As a country which depends a lot on exports, we will be in trouble if we cannot export, but the government has done its best, he said. On the next general election, Daim said BN should go all out to win in Sabah and Sarawak, keep its current seats in the peninsula as well as pay attention to seats that it lost narrowly in the 2008 polls. [Very perceptive as a strategist but what about all those unresolved issues like the native customary lands and wanton logging].
"If I were the PM, I will focus on Sabah and Sarawak to keep the status quo; seats won here (peninsula in the last election); and some seats that MCA lost narrowly the last time.
My comments:
After the last Sarawak state elections, I think status quo in urban and semi-urban seats are at risk to BN.
If you go all over the country, you are not sure where you can get the votes, it is just a waste of time," he said on campaign strategy.So much for turun padang.
Asked to rate BN's chances according to states, he said it will be hard for the coalition to recapture Penang and Kelatan but it has a 50-50 chance in Kedah and Selangor.
My comments:
I think Selangor is difficult to penetrate unless BN promises super goodies. As for Kedah, there could be turncoats there that can make Pakatan to have a tough time but they may scrap through.
He said BN will find it tough to retain Perak given the anti-BN sentiment there as a result of the power grab after the 2008 general election. No denial syndrome here. I think, you have a good head on your shoulder, my good man!
On the National Feedlot Corporation (NFCorp) scandal, he warned that it can affect the BN more than the Lynas issue if not handled well as the loan for NFCorp comes from the government, and indirectly out of the people's pockets. Right here, again.
Daim also warned that if Umno does well in the next general election but MCA and Gerakan get routed, it will be very unfortunate and sad, as such an outcome shows racial voting which will divide the country along racial lines. I think the fate of MCA and all other parties except for UMNO has already been sealed asv they have passed their political shelf-life. They are not Terminators,they are likely the terminated in the 13th GE.
Strangely, Daim did not mention the possibility of a hung Parliament this time around. This is a very likely possibility.
