In evaluating the likely chances of BN coming back into strength, do read the mainstream media with a chunk of salt. Similarly those who read the alternative media, expect speculation galore too as most of the premises they are built upon may also be suspect.
Be that as it may,let me also do my own so-called fair bit of crystal gazing and musings while the authorities put their thinking hats to call the election in the near term or to serve the full term till April 2013.
I believe that lately, the BN government has been on the defensive. The flip-flops; while good for the targeted segments of the Malaysian population, does not augur well for the BN leadership. Perception is very important and the current report card shows that BN is assailed from all directions.
These range from the volte-face capitulation in education-where English will continue to be used for the teaching of Science and Maths except for those in Std 1 and Std 2. So much gung-ho from the Education Minister and then he bucked! Now the opposition civil society groups such as PAGE has now galvanised with other like-minded groups to form a bigger group to fight for the liberation of education; and the use of English in the national education system for the sake of the future of Malaysian children in a competitive globalised world.
The second is the complete reversion of the Public Services Salaries Scheme to square one; albeit with some new changes that would appease the lower rungs of civil servants. Where the government is going to obtain the extra RM3 billion to foot the bill only Houdini can conjure up!
The others imbroglios include the RM300 million loans to buyers of KL City Hall flats which has yet to take off because of the supposedly sub-prime status of its borrowers and the ineffective 1Malaysia First Home Purchases for graduates which has yet to see some semblance of success. Here, Bank Negara is not moving an inch from its new lending guidelines in order to check the increasing household debt.
The controversial Felda Global Ventures listing is still stormy as the courts will be used again and again to stall the listing. Side-lining the Felda settlers will be a bane to BN. Failing to resolve this problem amicably will mean FELDA-driven constituencies may fell to the Opposition,regardless whether Pakatan is weak or strong in those areas.
The protest against the Gebeng Lynas project is still smouldering and may cost seats particularly in constituencies around Kuantan and in Pahang. There is also the likelihood that the effects may also reverberate to other constituencies nation-wide.
As I have written in an earlier post,as the razor-sharp no-stones un-turned PR investigative teams zoom in from one issue to another, the BN is forced into an Alamo siege mentality of of sorts. The 'Cowgate' scandal has been a field day for the PR faction. They have got some of the protagonists turned antagonists into courts and more may be charged.
The winds is in their sails as they now take on the PM exposing his birthday and his daughter's engagement party do. How will the PM re-act on this? Elegant silence or take the bulls by its horns and expose the PR investigators?
In Sarawak. BN may have a fighting chance in Sabah as the Opposition is yet to show any strength. Also, you have leaders such as Jeffrey Kitingan and Yong Teck Lee and their counterparts that are coming up from hibernation mode to throw a spanner into the works further confusing the Sabahan voters as they grappled with the need for an RCI to look into the ugly problem of illegal immigrants being fast-tracked into becoming voting citizens.
It will be BN's bulwark in Sarawak helmed by 'Peh Moh' which will help BN to make it its day or break its back in this coming elections. Intrepid and adept in politics as he is, this veteran is putting his finger to the wind. He may jump ship if the Titanic sinks! As they say, politics is the art of the possible!
For PR,which is the weakest party in the Pakatan Rakyat alliance, they have to ensure potential frogs are weeded out from their candidate list. Most ex-UMNO candidates may have to be thoroughly vetted before they can be considered as deserving candidates. That is Keadilan's Achilles heel.
Will history repeat itself and cause another Perak debacle?
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