January 23, 2010

Let's have a book review. This is done by Errol Oh of the STAR.

The title invites an instant retort: “C’mon, nobody really thinks Warren Buffett is perfect.”

Thus is the shakiness of the book’s apparent premise; that people are so wowed by Buffett’s extraordinary track record as an investor that they are somehow blind to the fact that he has made his share of missteps and that his investment philosophy and strategy are not for everybody.

Referring to many Buffett-watchers, Vahan Janjigian writes: “They believe he has become successful by simply implementing the same basic strategies over and over again. They also like to believe that anyone can be a tremendously successful investor just by learning some of Buffett’s favourite tricks and doing what he has done in the past. If only things were that simple.”

Of course, it’s up to the author to uncover Buffett’s feet of clay and the areas of incompatibility between the Buffett way and what most investors can do, given the latter’s more slender resources.

Some of these points are patently obvious. Do we need to be reminded, for example, that unlike Berkshire Hathaway and Buffett, most investors can’t afford to buy a significant stake in a listed company, let alone entire companies?

Nevertheless, it’s an important distinction. Buffett’s deep pockets and stellar reputation mean he can typically exert influence over the businesses he has invested in, thus improving his chances of getting good returns. Other investors can only hope they have made the right bets or that fellow shareholders with the same kind of clout that Buffett has, will step in when things go wrong.

Also, Buffett doesn’t need to spend much time sniffing out potential investments. Instead, he cherry-picks from the tonnes of deal proposals that he receives regularly.

This book is actually yet another analysis of the Oracle of Omaha’s moves that doubles up as an investment manual. “By studying Buffett you can learn what works and what does not work in most circumstances,” the author writes in the introduction.

“By learning everything you can about Buffett’s strategies, you will ensure that you have the information you need to maximise the probability of success no matter what your investment horizon.

“You will also develop an understanding of and an appreciation for the risks involved in the various kinds of investment strategies that are available to you. And you will make yourself a more realistic investor.”

Even Buffett Isn’t Perfect’s unique selling proposition is that Janjigian, chief investment strategist at Forbes, tackles the job by adopting a less-than-awed stance on some of the things the Berkshire Hathaway CEO has said and done.

The author highlights inconsistencies and mistakes, debunks common misconceptions, and offers alternative opinions, often backed by research findings.

For one thing, our fondness for convenient labels – plus, the man himself cultivates a certain public image – breeds inaccurate notions about Buffett’s approach to investment. Many people see him as strictly a value investor, but he also buys growth stocks. He is famous for his insistence on long-term holdings, but he also trades.

Janjigian takes up a few chapters to pick apart Buffett’s well-known views on corporate governance, succession planning, stock options, taxes and earnings guidance.

The author provides some sturdy arguments against Buffett’s positions, but when you consider the basis of the book, the question has to be asked: Since when is it an imperfection to have opinions that are open to debate?

Again, this exposes the flimsiness of Even Buffett Isn’t Perfect’s gimmicky framing device. But if you look past that, the book is a useful addition to the library of publications about Buffett. Its main value is that it promotes critical thinking over adulation.

And mind you, the book is not meant to put a dent in the Buffett legend. In the last chapter – indeed, the book’s subtitle is already a dead giveaway – Janjigian gives a tip of the hat to Buffett, pointing out that the man has made many of the other Berkshire Hathaway shareholders rich as well.

“Perhaps no other single individual has created more millionaires. Based on the evidence, it is certainly fair to conclude that Buffett is one of the greatest investors – if not the greatest investor – of all time.”

China:Aversion to Hot Money?

The tightening on bank of reserve requirement ratios and short-term debt yields lately has wrought some concern on both property buyers and stock punters.

Perhaps there are parties that are of the opinion that it is too soon for China to raise interest rates because inflation is still containable and a rate hike could spur an unwelcome influx of speculative money.

Xia Bin, head of the financial institute of the Development Research Centre, a cabinet think tank, said China’s economy could maintain relatively rapid growth of at least 8 per cent this year and keep consumer price inflation down to about 3 per cent, the official China Securities Journal reported.

Xia warned that if China raised interest rates before the United States did, it may attract unnecessary inflows of “hot money” while the consumer price index was still within a range where it could be kept under control.

Data released on Thursday showed China’s economy grew 10.7 per cent in the fourth quarter from a year earlier while the December CPI jumped 1.9 per cent year-on-year, accelerating from November’s 0.6 per cent rise. The strong data appeared to set the stage for further monetary tightening.

The central bank has already started to clamp down on the abundant liquidity in China’s markets by raising bank reserve requirement ratios and short-term debt yields over the past two weeks.

Xia’s latest published remarks echoed comments last month that China was unlikely to raise interest rates in the first quarter of this year.

He added the government should gradually make adjustments in the property sector over two to three years because aggressive moves could put pressure on the economy.

China is considering steps on second-home purchases and other measures to curb speculation and address a possible property price bubble.

It is better to be wary then to do costly damage control later. So tread carefully,won't you?

January 22, 2010

Photos of the Hour

These are three photos of the hour today.

First, we have President Barrack Obama taking on the Financial warlords of Wall street.

Second, we have the French First Lady,Carla Bruni on a compassionate trip to Haiti.

Lastly we have The late Sultan of Johore who passed away yesterday with two former ex-PMs of Malaysia.

'Tis really a day of compassion and a day of challenge!

Jennifer Beals-An Uncut Diamond




I watched again 'Flashdance' yesterday. I think I did not get the full essence of the movie back then. This time around, the story-line was clearer to me. The protagonist, Alexandra Owens, a welder by day and a night-club dancer by night, is desirous on attending a prestigious dance school. The movie tells us of her trials and tribulations as well as her friends who worked at the bar.

The music by Giorgio Moroder was pulsating and the songs that the used in the movie like 'Maniac' by Michael Sombelo and 'Gloria' by the late Laura Branigan punches the film at the right spots. Yes, there was that famous Irene Cara theme number too.

What I saw in this movie was the beauty of Jennifer Beals. Of mixed parentage(An African-American father and an Irish mother),she was downright vivacious and have a pretty face to match. Believe me, she graduated from Yale. She turned down most of the great film roles to continue her education and married very early too.

Pity, she did not get far on film, though she co-stars currently in "The L Word" on TV.

Genting Berhad: Preferred Counter

I took this from the STAR online dated 23 January 2010. This article is written by Jagdev Singh Sidhu.

Jagdev said "the exuberance surrounding Resort World Sentosa might be overdone and one broker has now recommended investors switch their focus on Genting Malaysia for value instead of its Singapore counterpart.

Citigroup said expectations surrounding Resort World Sentosa were too bullish, making Genting Singapore the world’s most expensive casino stock.

“According to Bloomberg consensus, Resort World Sentosa will be the world’s most profitable casino by 2011, implying Singapore will be generating twice the revenues of Malaysia. We strongly disagree,” it said.

“Not least because if consensus estimates are to be believed, Resort World Sentosa would be the most profitable casino in the world in its first full year of operation (2011), a proposition that truly stretches the imagination.”

At the core of Citigroup’s estimates are visitor projections and just how much money is going to be spent by each person at the resort.

Even though it says its 2011 earnings before income tax, depreciation and amortisation (ebitda) estimates for Resorts World Sentosa were around 30% below consensus and projects Resorts World Sentosa generating revenue of US$1.2bil in 2011, those were aggressive as the consensus numbers call for Resorts World Sentosa starting operations with a bang, something that they feel is unlikely given the greenfield nature of the casino.

The broker said its forecasts seem aggressive, as they assume every single visitor to Singapore would visit either of the integrated resorts once and that every eligible Johorean would go twice to the resort. Furthermore, estimates counts on every Singaporean above 21 years of age visiting the casino five times a year and outspending the average visitor in Macau.

Estimates have projected that each visitor to Resorts World Sentosa would spend US$100, which is 51% higher than that typically spent at Genting Malaysia’s casino (US$66) and higher than the average spend at the Venetian Macau (US$84). That does not include the additional S$100 entry levy that each Singaporean must pay when they enter the casino.

Calling a sell on Genting Singapore, Citigroup gives another example why the market expectations were too high for Singapore’s Integrated Resorts.

“According to consensus, Resorts World Sentosa and Marina Bay Sands in their first full year of operations will achieve combined gross gaming revenue equivalent to 50% of Las Vegas at about US$4bil. We estimate the total market size in 2011 to be at US$2.8bil, around 35% below consensus,” it said.

Citigroup feels Resorts World Sentosa would take significantly longer than currently forecast to achieve the level of visitor arrivals needed to meet the market’s revenue and ebitda projections for its gaming and theme park products.

The broker, however, has called a buy on Genting Malaysia, calling it the world’s most profitable casino. It expects revenue to fall by 12% by 2011 compared with 2009 due to cannibalisation from Singapore but said that both markets were different entities and the issue of Genting Malayssia losing its 7% of Singaporean visitors as overplayed.

Citigroup expects Genting Highlands’ mass market day trippers (72% of visitors) to remain loyal due to the huge price differential in the two models. Resorts World Sentosa’s hotel rates are 7 times those of Genting Highlands."

So, do you think Citibank is right?

Focus on Sunwaymas

It's been a while that I have been to this part of the world.

Since I had some time to kill last Monday, I took a stroll down this area of Petaling Jaya. Sunwaymas is nestled just behind the township of Aman Suria and the square-like layout facilitatea walking. However, there are areas that are not connected which makes you prone to be a victim of a heavy downpour. I have seen many old restaurants that existed before. They were great joints-classy no doubt but many of them (both in Aman Suria and Sunwaymas) have ceased operations. In its place today are establishments selling hawker fare.





There are others, for some reason or other are closed that day. Then, there are the new restaurants that has just been opened for business by the look of its decor and promotion banners.

It was dinner-time and yet the crowd was missing. I am really worried for the new restaurants just opened. Could they make it through 2010?

I tried a Teowchew Porridge Restaurant. Food was okay. Some preserved ground-nuts,sweet preserved vegetable and a half salted egg plus a bowl of porridge with a piece of sweet potato in it cost me RM4.40.

There are other restaurants nearby; so I will try each one in turn in the coming weeks.

The Art of Begging and Panhandling

You have to give credit where credit is due. Look at these street beggars and their antics and you would give them their money's worth. First for the effort and then for their sincerity.

Have fun looking at these pictures.