I took this from the STAR online dated 23 January 2010. This article is written by Jagdev Singh Sidhu.Jagdev said "the exuberance surrounding Resort World Sentosa might be overdone and one broker has now recommended investors switch their focus on Genting Malaysia for value instead of its Singapore counterpart.
Citigroup said expectations surrounding Resort World Sentosa were too bullish, making Genting Singapore the world’s most expensive casino stock.
“According to Bloomberg consensus, Resort World Sentosa will be the world’s most profitable casino by 2011, implying Singapore will be generating twice the revenues of Malaysia. We strongly disagree,” it said.
“Not least because if consensus estimates are to be believed, Resort World Sentosa would be the most profitable casino in the world in its first full year of operation (2011), a proposition that truly stretches the imagination.”
At the core of Citigroup’s estimates are visitor projections and just how much money is going to be spent by each person at the resort.
Even though it says its 2011 earnings before income tax, depreciation and amortisation (ebitda) estimates for Resorts World Sentosa were around 30% below consensus and projects Resorts World Sentosa generating revenue of US$1.2bil in 2011, those were aggressive as the consensus numbers call for Resorts World Sentosa starting operations with a bang, something that they feel is unlikely given the greenfield nature of the casino.
The broker said its forecasts seem aggressive, as they assume every single visitor to Singapore would visit either of the integrated resorts once and that every eligible Johorean would go twice to the resort. Furthermore, estimates counts on every Singaporean above 21 years of age visiting the casino five times a year and outspending the average visitor in Macau.
Estimates have projected that each visitor to Resorts World Sentosa would spend US$100, which is 51% higher than that typically spent at Genting Malaysia’s casino (US$66) and higher than the average spend at the Venetian Macau (US$84). That does not include the additional S$100 entry levy that each Singaporean must pay when they enter the casino.
Calling a sell on Genting Singapore, Citigroup gives another example why the market expectations were too high for Singapore’s Integrated Resorts.
“According to consensus, Resorts World Sentosa and Marina Bay Sands in their first full year of operations will achieve combined gross gaming revenue equivalent to 50% of Las Vegas at about US$4bil. We estimate the total market size in 2011 to be at US$2.8bil, around 35% below consensus,” it said.
Citigroup feels Resorts World Sentosa would take significantly longer than currently forecast to achieve the level of visitor arrivals needed to meet the market’s revenue and ebitda projections for its gaming and theme park products.
The broker, however, has called a buy on Genting Malaysia, calling it the world’s most profitable casino. It expects revenue to fall by 12% by 2011 compared with 2009 due to cannibalisation from Singapore but said that both markets were different entities and the issue of Genting Malayssia losing its 7% of Singaporean visitors as overplayed.
Citigroup expects Genting Highlands’ mass market day trippers (72% of visitors) to remain loyal due to the huge price differential in the two models. Resorts World Sentosa’s hotel rates are 7 times those of Genting Highlands."
So, do you think Citibank is right?
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