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| A Malay Candidate on a DAP Ticket |
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| At Ease with Tok Guru Hadi-PAS Supremo |
The last GE in 2013 saw the DAP candidate only grabbing 7,000 odd votes against doyen Mah of Gerakan. I believe that many voters returned from outstation and overseas to give the PKR an even or better chance to take over Putrajaya. We have now to deduct this group of voters as they will unlikely return for this by-election.
Now the contest is invariably uncertain; for both sides are claiming underdog status.
Let us see who is likely to call the bluff?
Maybe one, maybe both, maybe none.
Gerakan President Mah, the silver-haired doyen of politics is being pitted by BN to fight a young novice of unknown quantity,Dyana.
What has Dyana got that can possibly tip the scales for her against Mighty Mah?
Her demeanor and persona or the changing circumstances and vagaries of Malaysian politics?
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| Rapport with the Public |
A majority of the voters are not to be taken for granted. They are unknown quantities as daily occurrences can quickly change their mind. Until they hold pencil in hand at the polling booth, their minds are in flux and their votes can be anyone's guess.
Firstly, the few incidents lately like the storming of the Penang State Legislature in session by persons claiming to be from UMNO Youth; the arson threat to burn the DAP HQ in KL by 50 rowdy miscreants and the riotous mood by some divisive elements to damage the DAP office in Kuantan will in all likelihood solidify and cement Chinese votes against the BN. Dyana will have the votes here from the staunch DAP- aligned Chinese voters. Little doubt of it.
Secondly, underhand subterfuge with Dyana's look-alike photographs of a Filipino lass clad in a bikini has been widely distributed by outsourced groups in kampungs and a mosque to influence potential voters from the Malay heartland from voting Dyana. How much of the 25% votes that went to the DAP in 2013 will be chiseled off and lost to Diana this time around because of this unscrupulous hatchet job? Will this anti-Dyana ploy really work against the DAP candidate?
Possibly with little effect as most of the Malay voters are still UMNO-biased. It's like trying to convert the already converted!
The confusion this time around for the rural Malay voters is how to vote or how should they vote? It's a quandary!
Should it be party-based (for BN) which is the old, boring conceptual playbook or for a first-time credible Malay candidate (which is an optical play) whom they can vote in truly as their very own anak Melayu generasi muda?
As mentioned before, UMNO still holds sway in many traditional Malay villages and so the majority of the 'old school' adult population will have the mind-set to vote for Mah robot-like IF they are not race-biased.
This is at best unclear these days.
Mah may not get many votes if the Malay voters just decide to stay away on election day in favour of neutrality.
If the younger set of the Malay population is voting, Dyana may have an even better chance.
A fair scenario will be one that is neutral giving Dyana the 25% votes from hard-core supporters of Parti Keadilan and PAS as well as potential disgruntled drop-outs from UMNO and possibly MCA.
Thirdly, what about the Indian votes of some 11% of the electorate?
The picture is vastly different from May 5 last year.
Hindraf has left the BN in a huff.
Palineval is at the helm at MIC.
To most observers, this can be advantageous to Dyana if the Hindraf voters, feeling cheated, may vote Dyana in revenge or in protest. Also, Palineval does not come across as an MIC leader of stature; influential enough to sway a majority of the Indian voters, much less his own MIC members.
As the Indians continue to be the poorest of Malaysians; particularly in the plantations and in the urban areas eking out a living as jaga kereta boys, lorry drivers, corporate drivers, car washers, factory hands and other menial jobs that foreign labour have slowly crept in to compete, it is likely, on balance, that the Indians will be averse to support Mah or the BN in favour of Dyana.
The bet here is more Indians will vote opposition or even stay away from the voting booths. This will favour Dyana as traditionally, Indian voters support BN.
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| Firebrand Anwar for Dyana |
Tested and of known quantity, the Chinese voters know fully well what he cannot do. At best, it is to give them lip service as a BN component party leader. As for representing the interests of the populace of Teluk Intan, he is limited in his verbal freedom and its parameters. He has to faithfully tow the BN line or else face the harsh whiplashes of the unforgiving Barisan Whip!
Nothing significant will come from him if he gets voted in. Also, in consolation and to his detriment, he can always be made a senator if he loses as that is the safety net given for all BN party supremos! To an extent, this expectation and fact can grievously do him in.
As mentioned above, for the Malay voters, Mah will be supported IF they vote on party lines. If UMNO continues to appear weak, the Malays will ignore him for obvious reasons and not come near the polling stations right until they closed.
Moreover, the Indians will see no great advantage voting in a has-been Gerakan Party which is dominated by Chinese, almost lock-stock and barrel after the fatal aftermath of 13th GE. As such, it is quite clear how the ordinary Indian voters will vote as there is no love lost between Mighty Mah and the Indian community.
Verdict:
Given my gut-feeling and simplistic arguments, it will be a fair fight given that both candidates have credence and potential to profit Teluk Intan voters in some small way or another.
With token support from BN parties, Mah can bring in federal and state finance and some development projects. I doubt, it will be significant or long term. Possibly, marginal.
As with all Opposition candidates that won seats at both state and federal levels, traditional Opposition areas will support DAP candidates irrespective of their race or origin like in Bukit Gelugor! They also do not expect them to do much but to vehemently voice out their grievances and to fight gross BN injustices!
So, I give my 5 sen worth to Dyana that she will have one good fighting chance to fell the Gerakan Goliath in Teluk Intan come this Saturday, 31 May 2014.
But results can be perverse!
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