The New Voter and Female Voter Lynch-pin

The winning edge

Political analysts are hard at work, spewing new statistics that must be taken in consideration lest it may upset the apple cart.

It is estimated that more than one in 10 voters in the next general election will be first timers and how they lean will likely determine who takes Putrajaya comes the next general elections. Most of these are presumably fence-sitters — especially women working at home and the young —will be the lynch-pin to determine the results of the elections that must be called by next April 2013.

Until the end of last year, the number of eligible voters had swelled from 10.9 million during Election 2008 to 12.2 million Malaysians, an increase of  more than 10% or 1.3 million in absolute number. This figure will inevitably rise further if elections are delayed to next year.

Political parties are on the warpath seizing on all opportunities to get every eligible Malaysia to register within the short time frame left.

Let us revisit the voting metrics of the last general election.

BN secured 4.08 million votes in 2008 compared to PR’s 3.79 million ― a very slim difference of fewer than 290,000 votes . Will the number of new voters be for the yet to be registered PR front or will they set the pendulum swinging again for the BN?

While the BN is good at optics by staging huge gathering, the PR component parties have been using stealth tactics to promote voter registration.

Brigades of young apparatchiks go from house-to-house tirelessly to register voters as the impending election date looms; possibly to be held as early as October 2012. Out there, according to Election Commission (EC) statistics, there are still 3.3 million unregistered voters that can be the tipping point to victory.

The Merdeka Center that much followed survey bellweather, have concluded that two main groups of fence-sitters-the  young and women working at home will be the kingmakers for the 13th GE.

According to Ibrahim of the Merdeka Center, undecided voters these days are a different breed. There are those that continue to be uninformed and those who are well-informed. While the least informed may be blindsided to still vote for the BN, the other  more informed fence-sitters may vote for the PR or BN on polling day. He remarked that they  are  a strange kettle of fish-"sceptical" about BN, but also "having strong reservations" on PR.

 

As for the  "women who are not in the workforce, they tend to be less exposed to political development or rather (get a) one-sided point of view". They can vote either way, I presume, Mr Ibrahim?

As for the urban-rural divide, the Merdeka Center believes that fence-sitters remain in semi-urban or rural areas, while most city dwellers have already opted to support PR. Betulkah?

Saying that the economy will remain Malaysia's main concern, Ibrahim said other factors that could sway voters are candidate choices and the conduct of the election campaign. Perhaps, we should focus on this more, Mr Ibrahim. I am tempted to say that the 13th GE may be  'candidate and issue' driven compared to the fanfare politics of old.

Let us look at the personalities in BN and PR.

Will tainted yet powerful leaders be ponied up yet again by BN? Will such dinosaurs honourable leave or will they sabotage the s3elected candidates? Just like thevery,there is little honour among politicians.

Currently, there is indeed lack of new blood in all BN component parties. With the postponed party elections ploy not working as well for BN parties, will new faces be selected by BN for the upcoming elections? Have they developed stature? By any stretch of the  imagination, are they genuinely 'cool wins'?

There is so much controversy surrounding many BN leaders these days and nothing substantial has yet to be done to bring them action to bear upon them. This insulation may not go down well with new voters and until such issues find appeasement, voters may not find it easy to accept such leaders and vote the other candidate.

As for the PR, they have developed more next generation leaders showing their mettle on current issues. Would these new faces add more seats for PR to tip them towards Putrajaya? Would more seats from the fixed deposit states of East Malaysia be lost to the PR?

Anuar Mohd Nor, of Institut Asas Kajian Kemasyarakatan, shared Ibrahim's views that "it is crucial for both sides to acknowledge fence-sitters."

While observing that campaign tactics are different between BN and PR, Anuar said, both sides are using the internet to woo "new generation" voters and through catchy songs as well. More pro-BN news portals and a rising number of supporters taking to Twitter are testimony of BN's rather late adoption of social platforms for campaigning.

The One Million Youth Gathering in Putrajaya in May and recently launching the volunteer programme 1 Malaysia Youths For You (1M4U) may be good for optics and crowd-pullers; but do  crowds translate  into votes? To me, there is little relationship and no indication as well.

As for big programmes of BN such as BR1M, he remarked that every good deed even angpows has an expiry date as people forget easily once the effects rubbed off. For me, many did not get BR1M as it is not inclusive. For everyone that got the RM500, many did not get it and this double-edged tactic may wrought more damage to BN. 

Annuar has wise advice for both BN and PR.

Play on "current issues touches on their daily lives" even as close as two weeks before the polls date. "Work through policies now" and not give solutions only when elections draw near.

Both analysts agree that issues of "corruption and integrity" will swing votes among the young electorate, with Anuar pointing to exposes of both scandals by BN and PR.

Currently, Opposition Leader Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim's online presence is far behind Najib, with his Facebook account recording less "likes" and a smaller following for his Twitter account. But will this truly count given the lack of transparency over cyberspace?

In a bid to woo Internet-savvy young voters, Anwar hosted a live chat on Google Hangout recently, in a first for politicians in Malaysia. Will Najib follow suit?

What can be that winning game changer strategy that the victor can ride to romp home to Putrajaya? It must quickly be found.  

By the way, where is Aladdin's lamp, good friends?