Bersih 3.0-Some Scenarios

Will there still be trouble in down-town KL on 28 April now that the Bersih 3.0 sit-in has been approved by the government?

I think for the government, it continues to be a pricky situation.

To lend credence to the just passed Peaceful Assembly Act, they must show that they are for the new era of democracy in Malaysia. At the back of their mind, they might still want their hands on the hand-brake. So, they passed the buck to the appointed mayor of Kuala Lumpur.

This current mayor, apparently from a a better batch of civil servants, is caught with a red hot brick. He has to say 'no' to the sit-in site-the historical Dataran Merdeka or Independence Square. So, his deputy issues a letter saying 'no' to Maria Chin, the Secretary of the NGO. As far as the Bersih Secretariat is concerned, it is all action stations. They won't budge.

Some scenarios.

The first one is nothing serious will really happen. The police,RELA,DBKL and even the military will be all out to ensure traffic and crowd control. The foreign press will be happy and will report that PM Najib meant business and Bersih 3.0 was a victory for the government as it supports the dynamic liberalisation of civil liberties. This would be sweet for the UMNO Assembly on May 1st and be positive for the general elections speculated to be held in mid June.

The second scenario-There will be some trouble and skirmishes especially from Hijau as they march from KLCC to the Dataran Merdeka. Hijau is the movement supporting the closure of the Lynas Rare Earth Plant at Gebeng. So, if not managed well, there could be arrests, tear-gassng and even water canons. Could cause a back-lash from the Bersih supporters as they spilled onto the road to support their comrades.

The worst scenario-a repeat of Bersih 2 of July 7, 2011 though not to the extent of the mass arrest and total lock-down of KL. There could still be some sort of 'lockdown' with reduced public transportation, public transport interruption or slowdown.

In summary, what will the day after sounds like?

All parties will claim victory though a big turn-out will be a moral victory for the Bersih NGO and dissidents and not too good for the ruling BN.