The Editor of Malaysian Insider has today thrown in the remotest possibility of BN abandoning its time honoured formula of seat sharing for the coming GE with its component parties.
He may have got his sources right,though.
As much as I want to believe him, I think if Najib takes on this 360 degree turn, he might as well step down and let someone else lead the BN campaign.
If pure strategy dictates where only the best candidate stands, irrespective of whichever party they hail from, the likelihood of winning additional seats is still unlikely for mixed seats.
Even though, UMNO warlords would like UMNO to take over seats where 55 or 60% Malays form the electrorate, there is just no definite certainty that they will win given the current political mood when PR continue to nip at the heels of UMNO.
Where non-Malays form the majority of voters and in mixed seats, putting in MCA candidates is already dicey. That the incumbent MCA or Gerakan will actually win confidently this time around with the swirling tsunami still in strength is far-fetched.
You cannot deny MIC any seat just because they do not have a majority in many areas. That would have killed all of Najib's initiatives to win back the Indian voter who has voted against the government since HINDRAF created havoc in the 2008 General elections.
Najib must hold on to this golden goose that he has just reclaimed!
My take:
There could be a possibility that some seats could be swapped between component parties if there is agreement without any arm twisting. I do not believe MCA or Gerakan will ever give their seats to UMNO. Period.
The likelihood of MCA or Gerakan winning any seats in Penang and even Perak is now equally remote,incumbent Ministers or otherwise, if DAP is the opposing candidate.
MIC may possibly win some loyal constituencies but with much reduced majority but at best,I expect they will win very much fewer seats this time around. The possibility of being sent almost totally into political limbo is there, given the current weak political leadership in the party.
As for PPP, it will fully depart from the political scene once more riding into the twilight zone.
As for UMNO, its candidates standing in mixed seats may lose marginally, if there is but a weak tsunami in operation.
The best scenario I can see for UMNO is that this time around, it is personalities in UNMO that will win the day and the UMNO platform they stand on, will only be 'incidental'.
If fairer administration is seen in this forthcoming GE, BN will lose more seats.
If BN is fortunate, they will still hold on to Putrajaya but a hung Parliament is imminent.
In management, there is this truism.
"If you know the creature, then you can manage it."
I do not know anyone who knows closely 'what is the creature' of the current political situation in the country. It is one of shifting sands in the desert and you just cannot read it like tea leaves until the sand settles down.And the sand would not settle down because politics is dynamic.
One false step and you will sink and be buried alive in the deep,deep dunes.
I think currently, BN can have about half the support of FELDA settlers;perhaps more than half of the public service incumbents. The rest is anybody's guess.
This is one dangerous position to be in for BN.
In conclusion, knowing what Najib has been grappling with this far with all the political fumbles and controversies, I am quite sure being the person he is, he will not take this step of abandoning the time-tested formula of seat sharing. It's just not the nature of the man. Najib is not truly Machiavellian.
Doing so, will be the straw that breaks the BN camel's back and really put them out of Putrajaya.
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