Barisan Nasional's victories ever since independence has always been the rural heartland. Lose that and its game over,mate.
The early days of pre-Barisan Nasional stranglehold over the voting public until the May 13 Incident, was just that-win over the rural folks. Give them what they need in infrastructure. Victory is in your pocket!
Then was the era of development-It was the 'Needs' period.
Today, except for pocketfuls of rural areas that need the basic 'water, electricity and road' formula and the vast expanse of Sabah and Sarawak which continues to be difficult to access by road or rail,many young voting Malaysians have come of age. It is the 'I Want' period! This is the dynamics of the situation!
That many Malaysians have gone through tertiary education, gone overseas and read widely, have made them more aware of what is happening in the country. While in the past, it was the telephone that disseminates information, that changed with the fax machine. Today, the internet and the alternative media is posing immense challenges to sitting governments. It is in full multimedia! And can be manipulated totally for disinformation purposes!
Is Barisan losing the rural heartland in Peninsular Malaysia? Similarly, what is the true picture in Sabah and Sarawak. Has there been also a rural reawakening in these two states?
Barisan must remember that development politics is a two edged sword. As the people gets access to good roads, that also invite in opposition parties,the internet and the alternative media. Portable DVD players can screen any video onto a large screen which can work against the Barisan. Ease of infrastructure and technology can be a great equalizer!
Right now, BN is walking on eggs if they cannot resolve the listing of FGVB amicably. Losing half the settlers' support is real dicey in Malay heartland constituencies. It's going to be a touch-and-go if they should win.
It would be difficult to win this time around in strong urban areas. Urban areas are traditionally anti-government. Urban poverty is terrible and make voters to go against the establishment. Lately,the Chinese populace has too many issues with the government (Chiefly, Chinese school teachers) and this must be resolved if BN is to be able to hold back the opposition onslaught to secure victory. MCA has failed badly to resolve this particularly explosive problem!
What about the traditional kampungs? Can the government still depend on the village chieftains and the rural teachers? Again there is this remote possibility that these voters may have been alienated by the now aborted salary revision which favours the elite government servants. So, will be new add-on current scheme sway them back to the Barisan camp?
Except for UMNO which can be considered tenacious in possibly winning a big portion of their current seats in the best scenario,all other component parties are having both internal and external problems and these may easily cause the loss of such seats that have been allocated to them to the opposition.
For Gerakan,SUPP and PPP; it looks like they are confronting the 'last nail in the coffin' scenario.
For the MCA, they will likely be decimated except for one or two leaders who may win because of their pluck,luck, personality and the election machinery in their constituencies.
For others, it can be assumed it is one steep hill to run up given the awakening of the semi-urban areas. I do hope they have sufficient and sustainable stamina to oust the opponents.
As PM Najib trudged on and criss crossed the nation,in relentless 'hot breath' campaigning;little do we hear about the rest in UMNO or for that matter from component parties. Are they not campaigning as hard? Or have they been stung by the tze-tze fly?
Perhaps it is the muting period.
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