The Straits Times reported that Manpower Minister Gan Kim Yong said yesterday (July 4th) that Singapore can expect unemployment to remain at current levels or to rise further.
In remarks suggesting a turnaround is not imminent, he said that with the economic outlook still uncertain, the labour market “will remain soft for next one to two quarters at least”.
“A lot will depend on whether orders are coming in for the third as well as the fourth quarter. Visibility is not clear beyond July or August."
The governments training programme called SPURS which provides some form of income for participants besides training them to have marketable skills has kept unemployment in check. The jobless rate from January to March this year still rose to 3.3 per cent, the highest since 2005.
Data for the April to June quarter will be released by the end of July, but anecdotal feedback from unions and bosses seems to suggest that there will be no let-up in the jobless rate.
This is even though fewer workers may be let go compared to the record 10,900 in the first quarter.
Gan also said in response to a question that it was difficult to say when there would be a second wave of retrenchments — something the labour movement has told workers to brace themselves for. Gan added that focus of efforts by bosses and workers now should be on training with an eye to improve skills for an eventual upturn.
Noting that the United States announced on Thursday that its jobless rate rose to 9.5 per cent, he said it was important “to focus efforts on helping companies and the unemployed”.
The sentiment at last month's International Labour Organisation conference in Geneva was that the global slowdown will persist. As such, Gan said that it was premature to think about green shoots — the term analysts and others use to suggest that the global slump was bottoming out- at this moment.
Agreeing with his outlook, National Trades Union Congress deputy secretary-general Halimah Yacob said the jobs situation could worsen if those laid off in the first quarter cannot find jobs quickly and are joined by those newly retrenched in the second quarter.
Nanyang Technological University economist Randolph Tan said that with few companies hiring, and bosses laying off workers, unemployment could hit 3.4 or 3.5 per cent in the second quarter.
He and Halimah cited recent data which showed a doubling of those classified as long-term unemployed: 16,600 workers took more than 25 weeks to find a job — up from 7,500 a year ago.
Another reason the jobless rate could stay high is the mismatch between workers and the jobs available.
Workforce Development Agency chief Chan Heng Kee acknowledged it remains an issue: Career centres had 27,000 job seekers in their database as at the end of May, but they could not fill the 20,000 immediate vacancies in their jobs bank.
“Some of it could be skills mismatch, salary expectations or the work environment. We also encourage the employers to give the worker a chance,” he said.
Spur helped bridge the gap. Between December and May, career centres placed 19,000 job-seekers in jobs after many attended half-day workshops or received more intensive skills training.
Overall, about 124,500 workers have been sent for training under Spur from last December to May this year.
Equipment maker Kinergy, which has orders until November, is committed to training 120 of its 150 staff through Spur.
Said vice-president David Loh: “When they return, their morale will be boosted and their new problem-solving skills will improve our productivity and processes.”
Given their economic model, I think Singapore is right on track and using the current downturn to develop a larger pool of K-workers to be ready when the upturn come about.
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