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They all speak officialese.
They may be skillful manipulators of statistics and reshaping into potential short term policies.
Above all, they provide the data for industry to plan.
They say that statistics can be made to lie. Then there are those that will always pepper it with conditionalities like 'ifs' so that they can get away scot-free when their projections go awry.
So, now that Zeti has come out with her take on the 3rd quarter of 2012 and her overall scenario, what say you?
This is what Zeti said:
- There is a likelihood of the economy surpassing the 4-5 % government fore-cast for 2012.
- The Malaysian economy expanded by 5.2% in the 3rd Q of 2012.
- All first 3Qs were good
Based on the above forecast and results, Zeti has guesstimated a 5% or even better growth rate for Malaysia in 2012.
Zeti also reiterated that the economy was expected to grow at a similar rate in the 4Q.
The economy grew by 5. 6 per cent in the second quarter and by 4. 7 per cent in the first quarter
Growth in the second quarter was revised upwards from 5 4 per cent to 5 6 per cent due to new data.
The Malaysian economy was affected by weaker external demand which led to a 50. 5 per cent decline in net exports of goods
and services but the drop was partially offset by sustained growth in domestic demand
Domestic demand continued to drive the country’s economic growth with private sector demand growing 11. 6 per cent in the 3Q and public sector demand expanding 10. 9 per cent.
“We are not insulated from external uncertainties but the anchor to the economy is domestic demand ” said Zeti.
Private consumption grew by a slower pace of 0 8 per cent in the third quarter as compared with 2 8 per cent the previous
quarter helped by government aid policies such as the RM500 handouts to low-income households bonuses and readjusted pensions to civil servants.
Inflation meanwhile moderated to 1. 4 per cent in the third quarter from 1. 7 per cent in the second quarter
Zeti's caution:
“However we can’t rule out upside risks to inflation ” Zeti said .Net financing grew by 12 8 per cent while loan growth increased 11 9 per cent.
Zeti said based on stress testing Malaysian banks remain well capitalised and the risk of de-leveraging by European banks to Malaysia remained low.
“Stress tests affirm the resilience of financial institutions under severe contraction and extreme volatility and under the worst case scenario capitalisation of Malaysian banks remain satisfactory. ” she said.
Zeti said that while external sector weakness will affect overall growth factors underpinning domestic demand are expected to remain firm.
She said that private consumption will be supported by stable employment conditions, income growth and cash transfers while investment activity will be led by business spending in domestic oriented sectors, infrastructure projects and the oil and gas sector.
