Looking Closely of Risks for Malaysia

The above matrix is a pointer to the quo vadis of the Malaysian economy down the road. It displays the likelihood,transmission and impact of risks as well as suitable policy measures to manage these risks. The risks range from high to low.

Let us look at six indicators.

Side Effects from surge in financial volatility- High Possibility. This will invite capital reversals, the depreciation of the ringgit and falling export volumes. In the medium term the high share of foreign holdings in sovereign and BNM securities should be off-set by domestic buying. On the policy domain, stabilise the exchange rate as a shock absorber, provide liquidity support while temporary fiscal consolidation should be mounted upon well-targeted areas of the economy.

Financial Imbalances- in the medium term, the likelihood will be capital inflows and pressure on the exchange rate. Also there could be growth in leverage. On the low to medium scale, the high household and corporate debt will continue to make Malaysia vulnerable to external shocks. The recommended policy measures would include quickening the pace of fiscal consolidation, taking on macro-prudential measures while monitoring shadow banking.

Persistent Dollar Strength-In the medium term,disorderly readjustments can affect trade channels, cause contagion effects as well as result in capital outflows. As external debt are mostly in local currency, risk is low to medium. Also, on the positive side,  it has been a practice  to hedge by local resident companies. The policy instrument would be to stabilize the exchange rate as a shock absorber.

Protracted Slower Growth in Advanced Economies and Emerging Markets-The likelihood and transmission of such risks is high. It may affect trade and result in  second round adverse effects on domestic demand. The expected impact is expected from low to medium. It would likely dampen domestic demand, lower growth, diminish housing and asset values and weaken corporate, banking and sovereign balance sheets. Policies for adoption would include adjustment to a slower rate of growth, start-up upon infrastructure projects as well as implement structural reforms.

Implementation Risks with GST-There exist the possibility of a low to medium risk with implementation of GST that could adversely affect the credibility of fiscal policies. On the risk impact side, this can result in higher financing costs,high public debt, public debt sustainability issues and potential sovereign downgrades which can then result in capital outflows. Counter- cyclical measures will have less effects. The exchange rate can be relied upon as a shock absorber.

Sharp Decline in House prices-The real economy could be affected by weaker household and banking balance sheets;there would be negative wealth and low confidence. The medium term risks takes the form of high household debt at 86% of GDP; of which 50% are mortgages. Policy initiative should include easing of monetary policy, having a flexible exchange rate as well as the provision of fiscal stimulus to support growth.

Being 63

By the Grace of God!

Time sure flies!

And what do you know?

Today, I turn 63 on the Gregorian calendar.

Sharing  blessings of the day with me are my elder sister and a close friend, Lena.

I received an angpow from my Mother as well as another from my sister, Shaline.

Looking back, there are days of goodness and days I just want to forget.

No great feats though and really no calamitous occasions to fret too!

Generally, my life continues to be blessed by God Almighty.

I thank him for His Grace,Provision and Favour.

May 2015 be a great year for me and my family!

Buying a New LapTop

Our new HP with  Pre-loaded Windows 8.1

A few days ago (to be precise, last Wednesday-11 February 2014) my lap-top finally gave up the ghost.

Apart from a flat battery, the battery charger which had been given a short lease of life of something like two years by some handyman work of my son,also decided to call it a day. It was double jeopardy!

We bought that HP unit some 7 years ago when I was doing some project. Since then, except for some minor issues, it hasn't failed me at all.

So, we went to Plaza Low Yat last Thursday. Believe me, there are all kinds of smart-alec oil salesmen who will do their corniest best to influence you to buy from them.

For instance, there was this one Pakistani fellow who promised to take in my old set for RM 400 as a trade-in if we would buy a new HP laptop from him. He told us all we needed  to do was pay him  RM 1,700 for the new HP.

Today, after doing plenty of research, my son decided to give this Pakistani computer salesmen his business.

He went to Plaza Low Yat this morning again.

However, the Pakistani changed his tune. As far he was concerned, the price of a new HP unit has just gone up by RM 200 and the trade-in will now only be RM 100. What a crap!

So, we scouted around and bought it from another merchant. It cost me RM 2, 099 with up to date features and capacity. They also took in my old lap-top at RM 150.

I do hope the new lap-top will last us for another 7 years.

Another Hurdle Surmounted!

Praise The Lord!

It was certainly with the greatest trepidation that my son got up at the anxious hour of 7 a.m. this morning (8 Feb 2015).

He clicked on the lap-top and went onto the web to find out what was the outcome of the two ACCA papers he sat sometime in early December in 2014.

At 8.00 am or about, the results were flashed into his mail-box.

He whooped with joy, I hugged him in celebration.

With that, another hurdle has been crossed.

What remains is the final two option papers-Audit and Taxation.

As Timothy said, We must fight the good fight. We must have a good finish!

For my son, this is the home-stretch and with God on his side, he may yet excel.

Praise the Lord!

MOH Dinner on 7 February 2015

Nien Nien Yu Yee!

I must say this time it's really one small do as many could not attend.

Loi had to do a training stint in Alor Star while Cheng and Cindy could not turn up the last minute.

Similarly Francis has a church retreat.

Chee has a business appointment, so it seems!

See could not be located. Possibly outside the country.

As for Tew Swee Tong, despite his positive answer, he must have just just forgotten!

So, we chose an entry fare.

But things are really expensive these days.

Last year you could get a suckling pig on the selection for RM 500.

This year--Nada! You will get that delicacy only with a RM 600-RM 700 menu!

Whatever it was, we still had a nice time.

Joyce brought a red wine. We are obliged to her for her thoughtfulness.

Mostly, we thank Kooi Ming for playing host by footing the bill.

The attendees-

Joyce
Michael
Kooi Ming
Janet Chen
Peng Seng
Leana Goh
Yau Kok
Cheng Hong
Heng

Perhaps, we can arrange a bigger do sometime mid year.

Hopefully, more will be able to attend.

The Wingless Birdman of Imagination

Playing with Your Mind

This is definitely an art-house movie.

Directed by the famous Alejandro Innaritu, this is a movie of human aspirations and the 'daringness' to dream again.

Here a washed-out protagonist icon of a screen hero relives his life on the stage putting up a play titled, "What Do We Talk When We talk of Love?"

He fights with relationships with his ex-wife, his daughter and his alter-ego, the dark Birdman who taunts him to take chances to better himself.

The last part of the movie is surreal and leave much to the imagination.

This is one movie I would not want to revisit or to review.

Brilliant-Eclipsing Gravity and Even Space Odyssey 2001!

Breath-taking Fare

Interstellar is another masterpiece from master director,Christopher Nolan.

In this science-fiction movie, he explores complex ideas like like wormholes, relativity, time and the elusive five-dimensional thinking.

A Fantastic Visual Experience

It is both factually educational and thought-provoking.

The premise of the future Nolan world is overpopulated and in constant struggle to feed the masses. Though farming is the future, the crop blights seems to engender government investment in interstellar research to look for an alternative live-able world for humans.

Transcending the worm-hole

Continuing from partial information retrieved from earlier Lazarus missions, Matthew McConaughey's piloted the last Ranger into deep space after taking from a cue from his daughter's poltergeist premonitions. With the aid of two robots and 3 crew members, he transcended a wormhole just beyond Saturn, into a new galaxy.

Hathaway as Dr. Brand

The new world  through the lens of Nolan is nothing short of breathtaking. The visions of the black holes, the worm-hole, ice-planets and water planets are simply beautiful.

The Water Planet

As for the actors, McConaughey's character is well-developed. Hathaway and Caines' characters's are fairly developed but Damons's role as Mann, the baddie, is mostly minuscule and forgettable.

The Ice Planet

Totally unforgettable will be Mackenzie Foy, who plays the young sensitive Murphy. For her part, Jessica Chastain provides the melodramatic thread of an adult Murphy that connects both father and daughter  over time and space wherein springs the solution to the entire panning out of the Interstellar story.

McConaughey, Chastain and Hathaway

Almost stretching to  2 hours 47 minutes, this movie may win some Oscars this February.

The young Murphy

Superb storytelling and enjoyment of a movie but for its length!