A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to Paradigm Mall GSC

Brand New Disappointment 

We really did not expect the outcome though it did end up well and not to our detriment.

So, there we were rushing to finish our martabab at the Teh Tarik Restaurant. At 5 minutes to 12.40 pm, we were snugly seated in Hall 9 but the show did not go on. We did not get to see Snow White and the Huntsman. 


One of the cinema staff then announced that there will be no show because of a technical hitch and we could get our refund. Obviously, no one was going to take that lying down. So demands were made for complimentary ticket beside the return of our cash.

The manager came in and accede to our request.

So, we got the cash back and the two complimentary tickets.

Snow White will have to wait, I guess.

What a day!

BJFoods-A Fair Value at RM1.45

Berjaya Foods and Berjaya Land looks Good

Berjaya Foods (BJF) went ex-dividend today,sliding a wee bit in the opening bell before strengthening towards the closing seconds of trading today. It ended at RM1.28 for a 6 sen gain. Volume,as usual, was low, which has been the pattern for BJF for quite sometime now except for a volume spike on 11 June and a price spike on 21 June 2012.

Ambank Research today picked BJF as the stock focus today.

Its recommendation: Hold and not let go as it is poised for rapid expansion. However, it foresees a limited upside and pegged the counter at a fair value of RM1.45, based on a 13x PE on CY13F earnings. Since 25 May (97 sen) , BJF has risen 39% to the current price.

Jewel in the Crown

Ambank foresees the earnings trajectory to remain strong with a greater certainty in growth as its expansion spree remains well on track. The impending acquisition of a 50% stake in Starbucks is expected to be completed in August. Starbucks, apparently has achieved growth of 26% in the last six months-the highest in South-east Asia.


Given the strong franchise value, earnings of CAGR of 51% remains robust over FY13F to FY15F.


So, what is in store for shareholders? 


As the rights price is RM0.65 sen per share , if the share price maintains at this level, it means that one will stand to gain 0.63 sen when the exercise is over. Then there is the free warrants to boot. I am not sure of the conversion price as it has not been fixed.

If the Starbucks acquisition  is expected to b completed in August, I guess the rights exercise will take place in July.

Given the short time window of only a month or so, I expect dynamic action on BJF as speculators will come in to shore up prices. As it is a very tightly held counter by both the majority shareholder (Berjaya Group  etal ) and reluctant minority retail shareholders, the technical situation can see the share potentially breaching the RM1.50 level.

The Indonesian Revenue Factor

Then, there is the Kenny Rogers expansion into Indonesia. With the growing affluence in this republic and better purchasing power for restaurant-style fast-foods, it will certainly impact upon the revenue and profit of BJF in the ensuing years to come.


Also for fast food play, with KFC and QSR bidding farewell from Bursar KL, it looks like BJF will be the new leader in pole position way ahead of Old Town Coffee.


For now, let us watch how the counter will move in the near future given the technical shortage of sellers. 

Berjaya Foods-Will it Reward Shareholders?

Food for Thought

Yesterday, the counter could not cling to its gains and slid more than 5.7%. From RM1.38, Berjaya Foods (BJF) lost 8 sen to RM1.30, touching a low of RM1.29. Fortunately, there was no volume. Like an occasional rain in the desert, it will stay ever illusive on low volume trading; this time about 1,450 lots of 100 units each.

I think this is symptomatic of a tightly held counter by possibly a major shareholder or by reluctant minority shareholders who are not desperate to sell. That it has gone down may be indicative of some day traders disposing  to take advantage of the declining trend to get back on the bandwagon at a much lower price. Simple economics and might just work if selling persists.

At 65 sen for a right share,  this current price will fetch a clean 100% profit. So, a good strategy is to dispose a 1,000 unit lot  when it goes ex, collect the  800 rights at RM520, collect the warrants for free and subscribe for excess shares; hopefully they give you.

Today is the last day for the tax exempt dividend of 2.5 sen. So, any purchase price is effectively 2.5 sen cheaper. Fro instance, if you buy at RM1.30; it means it is a purchase of  RM1.275 which can offset a big portion of your overhead charges.

My guesstimate, they will still hold it above RM1.00 until it goes ex, giving you a profit berth of RM0.35 sen. This is a very conservative stand.

Happy speculating but caveat emptor!


PS: BJF declined by another 5 sen today to RM1.25 before ex-dividend day tomorrow.

Telecommunication Sector upgrade?

Revenue Churner with UNIFI

Just when you thought that with the breaching of the 1600 index would spell some sort of selling,more prophets are coming out of the woodwork.


The latest seems to be Kenanga Research  throwing in the gauntlet for the telecommunication sector. 


It is giving an  'overweight' to the sector based on the first quarter profit results ; the dividend yields and also what they have termed,"robust operating cash flow"


“These (factors) will provide the much-needed defensiveness required during the current volatile market,” so said Kenanga  in a note to clients. 

So let us see what Kenanga sees in their crystal gazing exercise.


The target price for GLC Telekom Malaysia Bhd is now moved up to RM6.36 (US$2.02) from RM5.65, another 10% while the much sought after third-largest Malaysian mobile phone operator  DiGi.Com Bhd is given a marginal push of 28 sen to RM4.68 from RM4.40. 

Well-Run, No Foreign Exchange Losses

Top mobile operator Maxis is now given a 30 sen price hike to RM6.76 while Axiata is now adjusted upwards to almost RM6.00(RM5.95) from the current RM5.52 price

Silent Climber, Superb Dividend Giver

Target price for Malaysia’s top mobile operator Maxis Bhd was also raised to RM6.76 from RM6.00 while Axiata had its target increased to RM5.95 from RM5.52. 

Growth Stock

What about the effect of YTL Power (Yes! 4G) then, and Time dot Com?

YTL Corp-Pushy and Cheeky

So, what do you know?

It wanted to reward its shareholders. So, it gave RM20.00 for 1000 shares as  dividend and 1 dividend share in specie  for every 15 shares held. To top it, it gave an nice icing equivalent of YTL Power warrants of 1 warrant for every 15 YTL Corp shares held; at a steep discount of a honest-to-goodness 20 sen when YTL Power warrants is currently trading about 52 sen

At the same time, while the Treasury shares are not distributed, it continued amassing some more Treasury shares.

Yesterday it was still in the 8% region and perhaps has another less than 2% before it hits the target allowable 10% before the next AGM.

So the price went up to RM1.12 after a slight dip below RM1.90 went it went ex-dividend.

So, as I wrote in an earlier posting, minority shareholders are praising Francis as a benevolent demigod of sorts. A person who bought 1000 shares at RM1.96 before it went ex-dividend has now got his share dividend in specie, his 2 sen dividend for every 10 sen share, his YTL Power warrants at a cheap 20 sen and now a capital gain as well of  16 sen.

Expect more action on YTLPower as their Yes 4G broadband wifi roll-out gathers traction; and once its capital outlay is returned, it may blast off with the power and water utilities leading the revenue chase.

Nature of engagement: Do not sell any YTL Corp shares for I believe Francis is brewing something  "sweeter than honey", as deftly as he can with that RM14 billion cash hoard of his.

Bamboozled by an Email Hacker

When I received the email from a friend seeking help, I was more compassionate than thinking. What should I do? Who can  help me to assist my friend over there in  a remote country?

This happened on 19 June when I opened by email.

Let me show you the massage.

Hi,


Hpe you get this on time. I made a trip to Madrid, Spain and had my
bag stolen from me with cash and credit cards in it. I've made
contact with my bank but they are not providing a quick solution.
I'm physically ok and fine but I'm urgently in need of some money to
sort my self out of this predicament, I will pay back as soon as I
return.

Kindly let me know if you would be able to help me out so I can
forward you the details required for a wire transfer via the western
union as it is the best option to send money to me. I don't yet have a
local phone (still gathering my bearings and such), so email is
probably the best form of contact for now. I will expect your response
soon


Thanks SAS

And so a gullible me replied like this.


How much do you need. I will ask around to see how many of out friends can help pool some.


The next response from the hacker goes like this.


Thanks  for checking, I need just €950 euros to cover my traveling expenses, I will pay back as soon as I get back home. Let me know how possible this could be so i can send you the western union details.

Then a smarter me put on the verification process like this.

SAS,

Verify this and I will take action to raise the sum among friends:


Who was ECOoi?
Name of your three children.
Name of my children
Name the exminister of H whom I worked for
The name of my sister who worked for the H Division of the T
Name of your church


GB
XXXX

No response thereafter.

I phoned my friend SAS after a friend of mine told be that it could be a scam. SAS then told me someone has hacked into  his email compromising his address book.

What a lesson!

Berjaya Foods-Good Cooking?

News must be around the corner. Also, this must be one cornered stock. So the share goes up on small volume. Let's take today. Berjaya Foods went up 7 sen-more than 5%.

As the rights issue is pegged at 4 shares for every 5 held at 65 sen per share. That means that theoretically for 800 shares you will stand to gain 48 sen. Another bonanza if the matadors and Greek Gods and Titans don't give us any trouble from the Eurozone.

Good cooking so far.