March 28, 2010

Malaysia: The Credit Suisse Forecast

March 28 — Credit Suisse group is forecasting a more bullish outlook for Malaysia with a gross domestic product of 6.0 per cent this year compared with Bank Negara Malaysia’s (BNM) estimate of 5.5 per cent.


It also expects more senior investors to come to Malaysia for in-depth research on local listed companies following Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak’s address at the Asian Investment Conference in Hong Kong last week.

“They now better appreciate that he is a prime minister who means business, but also respects the fact that he faces a Herculean task in reforming Malaysia,” said Stephen Hagger, country manager & head of equities for Credit Suisse in Malaysia.

He said that a key takeaway was that Prime Minister Najib understood what the market wanted, but has to balance that with socio-political considerations and getting elected.

“PM Najib’s visit to Hong Kong served as a timely reminder to many investors not to forget about Malaysia,” he told Bernama in response to questions sent via e-mail.

Credit Suisse is the number one institutional investor research company globally.

In Hong Kong, Hagger said he met several senior investors keen to come to Malaysia to “kick the tyres” or go the extra mile in doing company research after hearing Najib and realising that Malaysia was becoming “under-researched.”

Najib last week met top-notch fund managers besides delivering a keynote address on Malaysia’s attributes as an investment destination for equity and capital market investments and its ground-breaking economic reforms.

He also met Credit Suisse special adviser, Sir John Major, who moderated the luncheon address where Najib discussed Malaysia’s economic transformation efforts and emerge as a high-income economy by 2020 and the soon-to-be unveiled New Economic Model.

Hagger said those who met the prime minister were surprised on the upside, particularly with regards to his openness and frank answers to questions.

Asked about concerns about investing in Malaysia, he said there were only a few well-capitalised stocks on Bursa Malaysia, while fund managers needed large and liquid stocks, so that they could buy or sell a position in one day.

“Malaysia has few such stocks and is competing for capital and ‘air time’ with the larger more liquid North Asian markets,” he said.

Fund managers are also looking for well-managed companies, he said.

However, he said the government has achieved considerable success with the government-linked companies’ reform programme in scaling down equity in listed entities, particularly at Khazanah Nasional Bhd, the government’s investment arm.

This has been followed up by the beginnings of a ‘sell down’ by Khazanah, which should improve the liquidity of those stocks.

“We believe the government can best protect the interests of its people by forming regulators rather than direct equity ownership.

“For instance, look at how successful Malaysia’s banking system is. This is due to excellent regulation by BNM, not due to government ownership of the banks,” said Hagger.

He cited how there was clearly a potential conflict of interest in the government owning controlling stakes in both Malaysia Airlines and Malaysia Airports Holdings, when there was no regulator to ensure ‘fair play’ with other airline operators.

Hagger said Malaysia was struggling to stay relevant as an investment destination for global fund managers primarily due to size and liquidity, but also of course, valuation.

“We notice that the foreign ownership of the Malaysian market has fallen significantly and the number of visits by foreign fund managers has dwindled.

“Events like Invest Malaysia — which starts next week are great, but very often, you have to go overseas to see fund managers,” he said.

He said the annual Credit Suisse Asian Investment Conference was a great forum for companies, governments and investors to meet, whereby there were about 270 companies from around Asia, including 16 companies from Malaysia, meeting some 2,000 fund managers from around the world, including several from Malaysia.

In addition, working with CIMB, “we are proud to have ‘showcased’ PM Najib and several Malaysian companies in New York last year.”

“We have also assisted the three regulators — Securities Commission, Bursa Malaysia & Bank Negara Malaysia — to meet fund managers overseas.

“Unfortunately, some company chief executive officers take investor relations more seriously than others,” said Hagger.

Hagger said Malaysia’s problems looked very easy to fix “when you are sitting behind a desk in Boston.”
The reform of the “30 per cent Bumi listing rule” would have been perceived as a ‘no brainer’ by many foreign fund managers, who probably failed to appreciate that it was an incredibly brave step by PM Najib, he said.

“I believe that is why PM Najib took such pains to explain that ... he understands what the market wants, but he has to balance that with getting his party re-elected,” he said.

He also said PM Najib was probably considering a sovereign dollar bond issue to showcase the strength of Malaysia’s economy and the banking system.

“The Malaysian banking system has come through the credit crisis with flying colours, with a large part of the credit going to the central bank’s policies,” he said.

Credit Suisse, the first foreign stockbroker to open shop in Malaysia, has consistently maintained a number one market share position versus foreign competitors, as measured by Bursa Malaysia.

“We have positioned ourselves as a gateway for both foreign institutional investors investing in Malaysia and domestic institutions investing overseas.

“We have maintained a commitment to our Malaysian equity research product at a time when many firms have either cut back or pulled out completely, as evidenced by our number one institutional investor research ranking.

“We have helped companies like Maxis, Maybank, Air Asia & more recently YTL to raise capital from overseas,”

I do hope all these motherhood statements will lead to something more substantive.

March 25, 2010

Strange Shots

There are some very interesting shots which I will exhibit here. Enjoy.

What perception!
 Cheeky Eye-test!
Drunk Parking!
Pasta!

March 24, 2010

Asia: The Burgeoning Bond Market


Asian Development Bank (ADB) in a report today said that emerging East Asia’s local currency bond markets expanded at a faster pace in 2009,thus offering investors diversification and higher yields.

Outstanding volumes in emerging East Asia’s domestic bond markets grew by 16.5 per cent, up from 14.8 per cent as governments issued debt to fund fiscal stimulus measures and as foreign investors sought to tap the region’s fast growing economies, said ADB.

The development bank defines emerging East Asia as China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, South Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. It said total bonds outstanding in these markets had reached US$4.4 trillion or some RM15 trillion.

The region comprised 6.7 per cent of the global bond market at the end of September, up from 2.1 per cent in 1996.

Bonds from governments and state-owned firms comprised 49 per cent of the outstanding debt at the end of 2009, compared with 50 per cent in 2008. Corporate debt comprised 30 per cent, up from 26 per cent, while central bank debt fell to 21 per cent from 24 per cent.

But risks could emerge from a reversal in recovery in developed economies, premature monetary policy tightening or destabilising capital inflows.

The ADB expects growth momentum to continue in 2010 as economic recovery gains traction and with the local corporate bond market remaining an additional funding source for borrowers in the region and providing an attractive asset class for investors.

Foreign holdings in Asia’s local currency government bond markets have been rising, reflecting the region’s quick economic recovery, appreciation pressures on their currencies and higher returns.

It showed foreigners owned 18.56 per cent in Indonesia, 11.64 per cent in Malaysia, 6.57 per cent in South Korea, 5.79 per cent in Japan and 3.31 per cent in Thailand as of December 2009, a steady climb over the past few years.

As long a foreigners have faith in our bonds, that should augur well for the economy in the long run.

Fitch's Take on Malaysia


 International ratings agency, Fitch Ratings says that Malaysia requires structural reforms to improve its long-term growth prospects and strengthen a credit profile that came under pressure in 2009 due to deteriorating public finances.

The agency said in a press release today that Malaysia, like many governments and central banks, faces the challenge of timing exits from fiscal and monetary stimulus without tipping the economy back into recession or allowing inflation to get out of control.

“Looking forward, Fitch looks for structural reform to improve Malaysia's long-term growth prospects and see the credit profile strengthen again,” said Andrew Colquhoun, Fitch's director of Asian Sovereign Ratings, at a conference in Kuala Lumpur today, according to the press release.

Malaysia’s A- rating by Fitch is considered investment grade and ahead of Thailand (BBB) and Indonesia (BB+) but behind South Korea (A+), Japan (AA), Australia (AA+) and Singapore (AAA).

In a copy of the conference presentation that was made available to the media, Fitch said that Malaysia’s public debt was climbing and now above the median of its peers.

It also noted that low government revenues were compounded by rising deficits — which hit a high of 7.4 per cent of GDP last year — and increasing dependency on the energy sector.

The Najib administration has said however that it is committed to reducing the budget deficit to around 5.6 per cent of GDP this year.

The presentation also said that Malaysia’s governance indicators in areas such as regulatory quality, political stability, rule of law, control of corruption and accountability were “below ‘A’ range norms”.

The key ratings drivers that Fitch would be looking at will be the country’s budget performance in 2010, revenue reforms and structural reforms especially the highly anticipated New Economic Model to be announced later this month.

According to international news agency Reuters, Colquhoun had also expressed disappointment during the conference that the proposed Goods and Services Tax (GST) was reported to have been postponed.
“That kind of reform and structural improvements in the budget revenue is what we look for to restore positive pressure in the credit ratings," Colquhoun was quoted as saying.

Fitch has forecast the Malaysian economy to grow at 4 per cent this year, which is lower than the Najib administration’s forecast of between 5 and 6 per cent. Fitch expects Malaysia to grow at about the same pace as South Korea and Taiwan and ahead of Thailand (3 per cent) but behind Singapore (5 per cent) and Vietnam (5 per cent).

Malaysia: A Buoyant Economy Awaits

Bank Negara (BNM) governor Tan Sri Zeti Akhtar Aziz said today (24 March 2010),the first quarter GDP growth this year was showing indications of being stronger than the previous quarter, when it expanded by 4.5 per cent.

The central bank also forecast a growth rate of between 4.5 and 5.5 per cent for 2010, depending on the additional economic measures to be announced by the Najib administration as well as external conditions.
“Indications point to that direction,” said Zeti at a media briefing today when asked if current economic signs pointed to a higher growth than in the fourth quarter of last year.

She said the indications include higher loan growth and continued positive export performance.
Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak voiced optimism that Malaysia could achieve economic growth of between 5 and 6 per cent this year.

Zeti added that the central bank, which recently raised interest rates to avoid potential build up of financial imbalances, would continue to monitor economic conditions but declined to confirm if more interest rate hikes were imminent this year.
“As growth strengthens, we will decide whether to continue normalisation (of interest rates),” she said.
Touching on the issue of bank consolidation, she said that it would be market driven and the central bank had no plans to prompt any consolidation.

Zeti declined to comment on the ringgit’s outlook but said that it would reflect fundamentals.

On the two new Islamic banking and five new conventional banking licenses that will be issued to foreigners, Zeti replied that an announcement will be made in either May or June.

Bank Negara expects Malaysia’s current account surplus to narrow due to faster growth in imports but would remain at a significant RM103.8 billion this year.

The central bank’s net international reserves increased by RM13.8 billion to RM331.3 billion last year, enough to sustain 9.2 months of imports and was 4.3 times Malaysia’s short term external debt.

The bank made a net profit of RM7.7 billion last year and paid out RM2 billion in dividends.

Interesting figures. Hope the country is truly in good hands. 

No Sukuk Bonds for the Rakyat in 2010?

Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM), the main issuer of  sukuk bonds in Malaysia, officially announced that the government will sell RM3.5 billion of Sukuk (Islamic bonds) due on September 30, 2015. Tendering for the paper closes on March 30.


When BNM goes into the market to mop up what they think is excess money from the system,it means they are aggressively trying to take more money out of the system and redirect it for government use. By doing so, the government does not need to go into more deficit financing in its annual budgets or to mount  additional taxes. At the same time, when the free float of cash or near cash is narrowed, inflation can somehow be better managed and the bubble be averted.

So who pays for these papers? Those who will buy these papers range from insurance companies to pension funds and the like such as Tabung Haji,EPF and SOCSO who are collecting money from the citizen every single month. Unit trusts such as Permodalan Nasional could also be buying the funds and so are Islamic-denominated funds.

It is interesting to note that that the government did mention in the 2010 Budget that they will be issuing sukuk funds. Is this that move? If that is so, then there will no longer be any sukuk funds to be provided for the rakyat's subscription  in 2010. If that be the case, then ASM1 could indirectly be targeted if it could announced a good maiden dividend in August 2010.

Let us wait and see.

March 22, 2010

MCA: Losing the Middle Ground

Well, the fight for the President of the sunk MCA is a 3-corner fight.


Like the Titanic, the MCA cannot be salvaged to its former glory, if ever there was a time. Was it only in Cheng Lock's time that MCA really contributed to the achievement of independence? Did it not play even once in nation building? Looks that way from hindsight.

So who among the candidates will win? Let us just look at the two more critical posts.

There are three candidates for the MCA Presidency.

Let us look at the incumbent. Ong Tee Keat is seen as blunt,brash and 'deaf'. He is a railroader. Do not stand in his path. But he is a friend to his loyalists. He can reward them as he has done before. The reports on his corruption has yet to be proven. However, as time goes by, more  of his supporters are getting disillusioned by his 'devil may care' attitude.

Dr. Chua Soi Lek. He is the most competent Minister to date from the MCA. Period. He has done wonders for the professionals in the Ministry of Health. He has contributed to the nation-no doubt about it. He knew what he was doing then; he will know what he wants to do if elected President. His only Archilles Heel-that damn VCD of his hotel room tryst. The very fact that he was elected by majority vote to be the Deputy President should hold him in good stead. Even in the Double Ten referendum vote- of -no confidence, he lost marginally thanks to the presence of a 'third force'. Dr. Chua is the underdog in this contest. Like most underdogs, their supporters are downright loyal. They will be there for him , come rain or shine. He looks likely to be the first to pass the post on 28 March 2010.

Ong Ka Ting-he claims that he is coming back to unite the torn party. Can he? There is a Malay saying, " Nasi Sudah Jadi Bubur!". Literally, it means the rice has become broth. He cannot be an alchemist to change it back to rice. Ong Ka Ting is the pretender and will rob the party of the middle ground. He did not even whimper when the party was in shambles. He is unlikely to win At best, he is a spoiler.

Now, a look at the two contenders for Deputy President. Let us look closely at Liow Tiong Lai. He is as unexpressive and unimpressive as Kong, his contender. He has done nothing substantive as a Minister except doing visits to health facilities and rattling off statistics. He has the unresolved problem of the Toyota Aphard and he has been seen as opportunistic,impatient and is involved directly in scuttling MCA with the Youth and Wanita leaders in tow. He is unlikely to win in a normal situation if there are more contestants.

As for Kong, he is an unknown-There is no performance gauge on him as he is a newbie Minister. What he has is a mouthful of promises.He may win by a slim chance if Dr. Chua's supporters can overwhelm Ong Ka Ting's supporters and Liow Tiong Lai's supporters.It is uphill for him. Remotely, he may win as a dark horse.

As for Liow Tiong Lai, he seems to be the favourite if he indeed gets the middle ground support. However, this is uncertain because many voting members may just spoil their votes in disgust.

If indeed he comes in as the new Deputy President expect MCA to sink lower into an ocean trench!