Dyana-A Hottie On The Campaign Trail

Novice No More?

Voters in Teluk Intan may be slightly confused if they see a pretty young lass, wearing the DAP badge moving around on her hustle at the market places and shops in the Parliamentary constituency ofTeluk Intan.

Petite and pretty looking, she certainly will woo the hearts of young Middle-Malaysia.

As for the rest of the electorate, they usually fell into three discrete categories.

Assuming that they do not vote racially, which may be difficult in a rural-based demography, certainly uncertain in a suburban landscape and blatantly definitive in an urban area, let us see what are the chances for both candidates.

Let's Have a Fair Fight. No bullying, yeh?

Let us look at the doyen of politics-Dr. Mah.

He needs no introduction. A local boy, he has played his part in the earlier elections under BN until his loss in 2008 and 2013. He is a known quantity.

The people knows what he can do and what and why he cannot do. Voting him in will perhaps see some small village and urban projects being implemented. He may lend a helping ear but there is so little he can do given UMNO's stranglehold over the BN. Also Gerakan is a party which is in the throes of death.

Dyana on the other hand is a breath of fresh air. Her candidature representing the DAP is electrifying. She is one unknown quantity. She may be another pocket dynamite like Nurul Izzah or Marina Mahathir or even Ambiga.

The people have to choose on 31 May.

Poster Attraction for Dyana

My 5 sen analysis:

If the voters vote status quo as in 2013, then Dyana will slip in with a slight majority lower than her predecessor. This is because outstation voters will unlikely come back to cast their votes.

If the voters are fired up after all the BN inflation measures making the cost of living to rise unnecessarily, then expect more of BN's earlier voters to either vote for Dyana or not turn up for the election at all. Again, outstation voters will also not come back to vote for BN.

In the rural areas particularly the FELDA stations and oil palm plantations and the other remote agricultural backwaters, BN will most likely have the upper hand as development is required to bring these people up to economic speed.

Doing the Walk-about

The interesting category will be suburbia where the lower middle class resides. They no longer believe everything spewed by the mainstream media and are possibly suffering the worse of inflation in so many years. More of them in new housing schemes will out of gut feeling vote for Dyana.

As for the urban Chinese core and traditionally anti-government, is is quite definitely Dyana's turf.

Given the above projected scenario, Mah will theoretically win the votes in rural areas, at best; an uncertain support in suburbia and  will be the underdog in downtown Teluk Intan.

Dyana,on the other hand, will possibly trounced Mah generously in urban areas, beat him by a broad shoulder in thinking-feeling suburbia and may lose a little to Mah in the rural landscape.

A Tigress Roars!

On balance, everything being equal and with no late unnecessary hitches, I think Dyana will come in quite nicely though not superbly.

The Penang State Assembly Debacle

A Theory of Mutation of Nations

Mutation in Progress

This is a great read.

From the analysis of the Obama-McCain election, you can truly feel at home that many nations will go this way to their demise.

Read on:

In 1887 Alexander Tyler, a Scottish history professor at the University of Edinburgh, had this to say about the fall of the Athenian Republic some 2,000 years prior:

"A democracy is always temporary in nature; it simply cannot exist as a permanent form of government. A democracy will continue to exist up until the time that voters discover that they can vote themselves generous gifts from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates who promise the most benefits from the public treasury, with the result that every democracy will finally collapse over loose fiscal policy, (which is) always followed by a dictatorship."

"The average age of the world's greatest civilizations from the beginning of history, has been about 200 years.

During those 200 years, these nations always progressed through the following sequence:

• From bondage to spiritual faith;
• From spiritual faith to great courage;
• From courage to liberty;
• From liberty to abundance;
• From abundance to complacency;
• From complacency to apathy;
• From apathy to dependence;
• From dependence back into bondage."

The Obituary follows:

Born 1776, Died 2011

Building on this ................

Professor Joseph Olson of Hamline University School of Law in St. Paul, Minnesota, points out some interesting facts concerning the last Presidential election:

Number of States won by: Obama: 19 McCain: 29
Square miles of land won by: Obama: 580,000 McCain: 2,427,000
Population of counties won by: Obama: 127 million McCain: 143 million
Murder rate per 100,000 residents in counties won by: Obama: 13.2 McCain: 2.1 

Professor Olson adds: "In aggregate, the map of the territory McCain won was mostly the land owned by the taxpaying citizens of the country.

Obama territory mostly encompassed those citizens living in low income tenements and living off various forms of government welfare..."

Olson believes the United States is now somewhere between the "complacency and apathy" phase of Professor Tyler's definition of democracy, with some forty percent of the nation's population already having reached the "governmental dependency" phase.

If Congress grants amnesty and citizenship to twenty million criminal invaders called illegal's — and they vote — then we can say goodbye to the USA in fewer than five years.

And tongue-in-cheek - Do you know any country that seems to be on this course?

A Mortal Rebuttal to Gloaters

The Bridge Beyond

When the fringe of society gloated over the death of Karpal Singh, Lim Kit Siang, the DAP advisor  wrote this response to remind them that every one will meet their maker- is is only when and how.

I think it is beautifully crafted.

A Promise to Insensitive Politicians
By Lim Kit Siang

Dear Sirs,

At some point in the future, you will depart from this world, as I will.

It would be a time of intense grief and mourning for your loved ones.

During that particular period, I promise not to gleefully gloat over your death. I further give you my word, that I will not claim, that my Maker, unique to my faith, had a hand in it. 

Although you may not realise it, to do so is despicably cruel and completely unbecoming of any human being. Only a beast or an imbecile would behave in such a manner.

I also promise not to splash your morbid or gory photos in death over the internet, to boost my Twitter and Face-book ratings. You may not be aware that such a move does not bring fame, only infamy.

In addition, I give you my word that if I can't find a decent word or two to express my condolences, I shall keep mum. 

This is because, to condemn you in death would only bring shame to me. 

I sincerely believe that I am above such behaviour, as most Malaysians are, save for a
lunatic fringe of the society.

I will also endeavour not to attribute your passing to divine retribution, after all, who am I to pass judgement? 

I am not the Almighty, after all.

In the event you have difficulty understanding or appreciating the promises that I have agreed to undertake, I have little else to offer you, but my condolences. 

For it is truly a tragedy to be cursed with so little insight and compassion.

Very truly yours,

A fellow human.

AEON-The Kenanga Prediction

A Value- Buy Ex-All?

Kenanga Investment Research has put out an underperforming call on AEON.

It has downgraded AEON at the current RM 15 level to below RM 14 or to be more exact to RM 13.78 from an earlier Top price (TP) of RM 13.83. This is six sen short of the former price expectation.

Rolling forward to FY15 estimated earnings per share (EPS), it has maintained a price to earnings ratio of 19X for this counter.

The change of heart at Kenanga on AEON was based on the slightly lower profits and higher costs occasioned by increasing operating expenses and higher utility bills  by the group,effected in  Q1F14, particularly with new store openings and promotional costs.

Kenanga said AEON's net profit for the first quarter 2014 (Q1,F14) amounted to RM 46.9 mil which made up 18% of the full year consensus estimates.

However, it has been noted by Kenanga that while  topline growth met the research house's expectations at 25% ,its earnings were slightly below expectations as the first and second quarters were traditionally weaker quarters compared to a stronger 2H as promotional expenses tends to be front-loaded.

On the upside, Kenanga said AEON's longer-term growth prospects appear positive as it plans to open another three new AEON outlets and two MaxValu stores in smaller towns such as in Bukit Mertajam, Taiping and Klebang in the next three years as well as its strategic  intention to branch into Sabah and Sarawak to have a presence there.

As a result of Aeon's expected lowered earnings estimates, Kenanga has reduced the TP slightly to RM 13.78 (from RM 13.83) (ex-bonus and split target price of RM3.44).

My Comments:

The share is now trading at RM 15.00. Unless it goes down further during the cum period, the theoretical price adjustment should be RM 3.75.

If this stock is demand-driven when it goes ex-all, then expect some aggressive spurt buying by pent-up potential buyers who could not get in at the cum RM 15.00 price level.

We will have to wait until June 2 to see what is the market perception of the price of AEON stocks.

Kenanga Research: An Underperform Label for AEON

The Malaysian Daddy Big Bucks

Most of them became super-rich either through licensing, inheritance, monopoly, political connections, proxyships or other considerations.

That they have harness the initial germ of potential business into something of grandeur proportion is their own making.

These then are the daddy big bucks of Malaysia!

Still building their fortune

Dyana-The DAP Gambit

A Promise for tomorrow?

The Teluk Intan Parliamentary By-election will once again be another test-bed for DAP.

Dyana-70- Days Old

On 5 May 2013, the gambit paid particularly well in Johore where they clinched a number of seats at both Federal and State levels from the MCA, Gerakan and UMNO.

Dyana-Her Mother's Daughter

Now the seat of Teluk Intan has become vacant once more because of the death of the seating DAP Parliamentarian, Seah. DAP has decided to once more test this seat with another gambit-field  a novice, Dyana Sofia Daud, the current political secretary of the DAP Advisor, Lim Kit Siang.

A Worthy Adversary for BN

What makes it particularly  interesting is Dyana Sofia is a Malay lawyer wading in a demographic pool of majority non-Malays voters.

Can she move mountains?

Will the gambit pay off again as this is a by-election where the full impact of the Barisan juggernaut election machinery can be put to frightful use?

Beauty and the BN

While the demography is still dominated by an almost equal percentage of Chinese and Malay voters, the Indian voters can now become the king makers.

A  Potential MP in the Making

Can the claim by MIC that they are now in the good books of the Indian voters valid?

Beauty and the Bizz?

With Hindraf out of the government, will this translate to less support for any Barisan candidates by the Indian community?

Looking for a hattrick?

Will the hudud issue brewing in the wind confuse all the three communities that who they vote can be anybody's guess?

On the Campaign Trail

The fight for Teluk Intan is an open field.

Fresh Face-Fresh Hopes for Malaysia?

If the Chinese continue to support DAP, Dyana may stand a chance of a close shave win against the Gerakan President, Dr. Mah Siew Kong who has now joined the State Exco.

May the Force Be With You!

The verdict on 31 May is much awaited.

Dyana-mania