Journaler0203

January 27, 2013

Najib Razak-The Final Outing?

The Devils Within; the Enemy Without

It does not matter what dates are being speculated or set finally for the dissolution of Parliament or when will the 13th GE be held.

The writings could possibly be on the wall in plain sight for all to see.

So, with all the negative vibes surrounding BN's chances of coming in better than 2008 dissipating, what would you think Premier Najib would do?

Let us assume you are in Najib's shoes- what is your best strategy out?

There is that huge opposition out there showing more resilience despite some fall-outs. They have mended fences and are showing solidarity 60 days before the impending elections.

Then there is that 'potential cloak and dagger agenda ' within UMNO particularly as factions jockey to get ahead of each other. The Premier, is very much aware of these people- his Brutuses and Nemesis-though the public can only speculate.

The best strategy is to go all out on a personal basis-a one man army driving the BN. So, we see Najib-- Obama-like-- moving like a whirlwind to touch base with the people almost everywhere his energy can bring him.

The goodies have been announced and some have been disbursed.

Next, choose only the candidates who are above board and have shown loyalty. The more new faces especially professionals would be better.

The MACC would be seen as an independent filter. Second and third-echelon leaders will possibly be decimated from candidature; thus depriving anti-Najib faction national leaders who will be given seats but with the ground being cut away from them.

By doing this, perhaps the sitting Premier can have a better chance of retaining the Federal Government and yet keep " the wolves at bay' in his party until the next UMNO elections.

The 13th GE-Optics, Optimism and Damage Control

Re-balancing act?

As the 13th GE looms on the horizon, the two opposing fronts are quick to promote optics and optimism about their success in the polls scheduled to be held by the end of March or early April.

Let us look at the BN side.

The goodies are being distributed until March. School vouchers for students have started and BRIM pay-outs are scheduled in February possibly just after the Chinese New Year. Somewhere in mid-March Form 6 and college students will receive their book vouchers.

Timing is everything now for BN until the dissolution of Parliament. The legal declaration of Hindraf has also been so well timed just before the holy observance of Taipusam.

Solidarity may win the Day!

On the obverse, the PKR is doing their best at damage control. The Allah issue with PAS changing their hues recently is thorny and pow-wow behind close door must have already taken place. The Kedah government debacle of trying to restrict Chinese New Year lady performers from singing and dancing at shopping complexes is a bugbear which like a red herring,was silently shoved under the carpet. The sudden removal of loose canon Nasaruddin from the Syura Council may appease some quarters in PKR particularly Anwar and the DAP.

While BN apparently is showing optimism through DPM Muhyiddin and Ahmad Maslan in taking over Selangor and winning back 2/3 of Parliament easily which as usual is highlighted in the mainstream media, unforeseen incidents involving the police as well as the fall-out of the RCI in Sabah is causing some nervousness among BN component parties. The silence of the component parties on the Arabic word for God as well as the Bible Burning fete is not going well among the middle ground.

With FGV shares falling to be supported by pension funds from time to time, the government will certainly feel the difficulty of convincing the younger Felda generation to vote for it en-bloc as in the past.

Today, the most classic optic is Tok Guru Nik Aziz spending his birthday with Karpal Singh in Penang. This is a message that things are now going to be better where PAS extremists and loose canons will be put to pasture. Also there is a possibility that there could be last minute seat talks between PAS and DAP before the all-out A-OK sign is given by Anwar.

Up to now, the component parties of BN have yet to salvage their position. Precious time has been lost and the last nail would have already being hammered deeply into their political coffins. I think all of them have painted themselves politically into a corner. It is a cul-de-sac for them and a permanent sayonara at that!

Also, will Bersih storm into KL once more when the elections are call? Very unpredictable.

As the scales of the BN is seeking for a strong re-balance, the Sabah vote bank continues to be the RM 64,000 question.

Will it tip the scales for PKR with the slimmest minority to take Putrajaya?

We should know within 60 days.

January 25, 2013

Greed, Misfortune and Arbitrage

It may appear as a regular movie depicting greed and fraud but Arbitrage has its fair share of twists and excitement.

Over-tired arbitrageur

As usual it tells us about billionaires, big deals, fraud, crooked law enforcement and loopholes in the judicial system.

Wronged wife

I think Richard Gere really played the role of the arbitrageur to the hilt while Susan appears, as usual, as the dull, cheated wife; while Brit Marling played the role of a professional caught up in a fraud.

Professional Entrapped in Fraud

Good movie if you can find the time to watch it.

Argo Way or No Way!

From the dragon's teeth

This is based on a true event in the early days of the Iranian Revolution. On November 4, 1979, as the Iranian revolution reaches its boiling point, aggressive militants stormed the U.S. embassy in Tehran, taking 52 Americans hostage. This attack on the US Embassy saw 6 employees escaping to see refuge in the nearby Canadian embassy.

Throes of Revolution

Ben Affleck's telling of this true harrowing experience of the six refugees and an almost hare-brained ploy to take them out of Iran made the movie almost unreal yet chillingly exciting.

The Sook Acid Test

Imagine getting onto an airline which took off moments before the army took notice that they have been duped due to poor intelligence.

A Flight to Remember

A great movie to come our way in 2013. Great movie-making.

January 24, 2013

BJFoods-A Wider Horizon and Better Future?

If you are sniffling around the board to look out for some worthy food-based stocks, there is the ubiquitous Old Town Coffee and the healthy Kenny Rogers franchise under Berjaya Foods Berhad (BJ Foods). Then there is the Sushi King outlets under Texchem and A and W under KUB. As for foods for the home, there is the heftily priced Nestle,Dutch Lady and F & N.

The food stocks that have disappeared are the food and beverage division of CI Holdings which is sold to Asahi Foods of Japan. KFC and QSR has just been privatised.

Quick cash, quick food dispensing

Of those that remains, only BJFoods is a smorgasbord of fast food outlets. Currently, two feature well in its portfolio namely KRR and Starbucks. Coming on board soon is Jollibean, which BJ Foods swallowed whole-100% from Singapore.

Then we have Wendy's, Papa Joe's pizza as well as Krispy Kreme Doughnuts which may be pumped into BJ Foods when the time is right.

Let us look at what BJ Foods just swallowed hook, line and sinker- Jolibean.

Bought with cash of RM18.77 million, Jollibean has 35 outlets, 14 Sushi Deli, 4 Kopi Alley and 2 Django outlets in Singapore. By March, BJ Foods will set up outlets in Berjaya Time Square, the Curve and at Sunway Pyramid.

Jollibean outlets will dispense food from a 200 to 250 square feet kiosk. Each will cost an investment of RM 200,000-300,000.

BJ Foods plans to open outlets in China, Indonesia and the Philippines. for China the target cities to start with are Shanghai and Guangdong.

The acquisition will not have any impact on revenue and profits in FY2013 but will do so in F1Q2014.

BJ Foods have forecasted that for the next 3 years it will chalk up a robust compound annual growth of 46% in FY2015.

In Singapore, Jollibean will open 5 new outlets and are currently closing down 3 unprofitable ones.

AmResearch is confident that BJ Foods will go far with its regional presnce in the fast food franchise business.

So, would you invest in this counter or even accumulate them when the prices are attractive?

Beguiling Hard Selling and the 13th GE

Political Viagra Salesman

It's definitely a home run for both the BN and PKR. So say hard-sellers from both sides as the elections looms so wafer-thin near.

So, who do you think will make it to Putrajaya?

This elections will be so keenly fought that any of the front can come in. At best it will be a hot-breath win for PKR if it makes it or a by a nose-win for BN because of the goodies it has sown and the blitzkrieg that is hammered down day-after-day by the main stream media. Remember-BN also has the advantage of incumbency,the rural vote-bank and all the governmental apparatus in its arsenal.

Elixir of political life?

But remember too, that all this hard sell, tough talk, and double speak and promises galore may not get into the mind of the voters who by now after almost a year of election postponement boredom, have already decided who they want to vote. The die is cast. The mould is set.

For the PKR, they have two issues that have to be solved which is definitely tricky and thorny. One is the hudud issue that they cannot see eye-to-eye with their other two partners in the coalition. The other is the Syura Council's interpretation for the Arabic word for God. Both these issues will not be resolved. Period. So the electorate will have to chew on this as they cast their vote. It is definitely a downer for PKR but who knows.

Vote this party!

As for the BN, the immediate issues that they face are truly itchy and need to be scratched at source; at all cost. The RCI in Sabah has unearthed unspeakable undoings of the government apparatus especially the tainted Election Commission and the National Registration Department. Fears abound that what took place is currently being foisted onto the current PKR-run states. As this citizenship issue and the phantom voters debacle cannot be resolved in the short term,it is a downer for BN. The Arabic word for God issue is coming up at the wrong time and may impact Christian votes as well as decimate the precious fixed deposit in Sarawak and Sabah. More harm will be seen in Sabah.

The shocking price increase for food is killing the budget of the voting populace. Even before the Chinese New Year, things are just spiraling up for no rhyme and reason. The economy is key. No about of statistics and gobbledygook gimmicks can impress the man on the street if the pocket in his pants gets larger by the month! The perception that the government is not doing anything against inflation, high profile corruption cases as well as measures to alleviate street crimes will also dent the BN's chances of victory particularly in urban and semi-urban areas.

At this juncture, do not listen to surveys carried out by so-called neutral organisations. Their sample and timing is always suspect and just like the investor write ups of investment banks, they fail to materialise.

There is a saying, you may be misled if you are "standing too close to the board". Like the proverbial saying," Miss the forests for the trees", these hard-sell evangelists and tough talkers will fall short of their predictions as they do not want to see the things that matters and like the ostrich, their heads are now hidden "deep in the sand" while the predators are ready to pounce on the other parts of its body. No amount of Viagra can save them!

So, election date is near; and do vote wisely.

What a Great MOH Lunch Meet!

Old Ties Reunited

As expected, we have lunch casualties; not like those that occurred in wars or border skirmishes.

Reflections of Better Times?

After promising that they will come, they have come out with the best excuses I have heard for a long time. None of them acceptable but certainly amusing as these excuses are absolutely unbelievable.

Those were the Days, My Friends

After fetching Mrs Chen to Bibi Chik Nyonya Restaurant, we awaited for the ex-colleagues of the Ministry of Housing to step into the restaurant.

Older and Wiser?

See cam first and plomped himself in front of us and helped to fix Mrs Chen's hand phone that was rendered in-serviceable after it fell this morning. Then came in Cheng Hong, Loi, Peng Seng, Check How, Lai and Francis. Soon Eng Koon appeared followed by David and Chai. Suraya came next. Sue followed. Yau Lee came in as the food was being served. Joyce was last to come.

Here, this is my e-mail

Those who did not turn up included Chee who is in the thick of renovation works, Cindy who cannot be contacted, Chan who is having quality time with his two children. SY Tan who had reasons to stay away. And one other friend who must take time off to teach his son how to drive.

I Can Draw This, You Know!

Be that as it may, those who came had one great bonding exercise. Even for those who do not know each other, they got engaged in animated conversation. I was truly surprised to see Suraya playing court to people that she met for the first time at lunch today.

Didn't I draw the airport design?

For Lai, it was definitely down memory lane taking with David. I was equally happy to see Eng Koon and Chai blending in and really be at home. Sue and Yau Lee from the Planning Department could certainly fit in with this crowd, I must say.

I have Popeye's arms

We split the bill which came to RM 603.50 between 16 attendees. Government tax alone came to
RM 26.00+

Food for me to chomp on

On the way back, Mrs Chen suggested that we have at least 2 gatherings such as these. We need not get everybody but if we could, that would be wonderful!

This meal is well-planned!

Most of us are looking forward for more time to exchange stories or even to discuss current controversies be it about the current sterile civil service,mega rogue politicians or about the education system that has gone way, way down deeper than even the Marina trench!