Asian Development Bank (ADB) in a report today said that emerging East Asia’s local currency bond markets expanded at a faster pace in 2009,thus offering investors diversification and higher yields.
Outstanding volumes in emerging East Asia’s domestic bond markets grew by 16.5 per cent, up from 14.8 per cent as governments issued debt to fund fiscal stimulus measures and as foreign investors sought to tap the region’s fast growing economies, said ADB.
The development bank defines emerging East Asia as China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, South Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. It said total bonds outstanding in these markets had reached US$4.4 trillion or some RM15 trillion.
The region comprised 6.7 per cent of the global bond market at the end of September, up from 2.1 per cent in 1996.
Bonds from governments and state-owned firms comprised 49 per cent of the outstanding debt at the end of 2009, compared with 50 per cent in 2008. Corporate debt comprised 30 per cent, up from 26 per cent, while central bank debt fell to 21 per cent from 24 per cent.
But risks could emerge from a reversal in recovery in developed economies, premature monetary policy tightening or destabilising capital inflows.
The ADB expects growth momentum to continue in 2010 as economic recovery gains traction and with the local corporate bond market remaining an additional funding source for borrowers in the region and providing an attractive asset class for investors.
Foreign holdings in Asia’s local currency government bond markets have been rising, reflecting the region’s quick economic recovery, appreciation pressures on their currencies and higher returns.
It showed foreigners owned 18.56 per cent in Indonesia, 11.64 per cent in Malaysia, 6.57 per cent in South Korea, 5.79 per cent in Japan and 3.31 per cent in Thailand as of December 2009, a steady climb over the past few years.
As long a foreigners have faith in our bonds, that should augur well for the economy in the long run.
International ratings agency, Fitch Ratings says that Malaysia requires structural reforms to improve its long-term growth prospects and strengthen a credit profile that came under pressure in 2009 due to deteriorating public finances.
The agency said in a press release today that Malaysia, like many governments and central banks, faces the challenge of timing exits from fiscal and monetary stimulus without tipping the economy back into recession or allowing inflation to get out of control.
“Looking forward, Fitch looks for structural reform to improve Malaysia's long-term growth prospects and see the credit profile strengthen again,” said Andrew Colquhoun, Fitch's director of Asian Sovereign Ratings, at a conference in Kuala Lumpur today, according to the press release.
Malaysia’s A- rating by Fitch is considered investment grade and ahead of Thailand (BBB) and Indonesia (BB+) but behind South Korea (A+), Japan (AA), Australia (AA+) and Singapore (AAA).
In a copy of the conference presentation that was made available to the media, Fitch said that Malaysia’s public debt was climbing and now above the median of its peers.
It also noted that low government revenues were compounded by rising deficits — which hit a high of 7.4 per cent of GDP last year — and increasing dependency on the energy sector.
The Najib administration has said however that it is committed to reducing the budget deficit to around 5.6 per cent of GDP this year.
The presentation also said that Malaysia’s governance indicators in areas such as regulatory quality, political stability, rule of law, control of corruption and accountability were “below ‘A’ range norms”.
The key ratings drivers that Fitch would be looking at will be the country’s budget performance in 2010, revenue reforms and structural reforms especially the highly anticipated New Economic Model to be announced later this month.
According to international news agency Reuters, Colquhoun had also expressed disappointment during the conference that the proposed Goods and Services Tax (GST) was reported to have been postponed.
“That kind of reform and structural improvements in the budget revenue is what we look for to restore positive pressure in the credit ratings," Colquhoun was quoted as saying.
Fitch has forecast the Malaysian economy to grow at 4 per cent this year, which is lower than the Najib administration’s forecast of between 5 and 6 per cent. Fitch expects Malaysia to grow at about the same pace as South Korea and Taiwan and ahead of Thailand (3 per cent) but behind Singapore (5 per cent) and Vietnam (5 per cent).
Bank Negara (BNM) governor Tan Sri Zeti Akhtar Aziz said today (24 March 2010),the first quarter GDP growth this year was showing indications of being stronger than the previous quarter, when it expanded by 4.5 per cent.
The central bank also forecast a growth rate of between 4.5 and 5.5 per cent for 2010, depending on the additional economic measures to be announced by the Najib administration as well as external conditions.
“Indications point to that direction,” said Zeti at a media briefing today when asked if current economic signs pointed to a higher growth than in the fourth quarter of last year.
She said the indications include higher loan growth and continued positive export performance.
Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak voiced optimism that Malaysia could achieve economic growth of between 5 and 6 per cent this year.
Zeti added that the central bank, which recently raised interest rates to avoid potential build up of financial imbalances, would continue to monitor economic conditions but declined to confirm if more interest rate hikes were imminent this year.
“As growth strengthens, we will decide whether to continue normalisation (of interest rates),” she said.
Touching on the issue of bank consolidation, she said that it would be market driven and the central bank had no plans to prompt any consolidation.
Zeti declined to comment on the ringgit’s outlook but said that it would reflect fundamentals.
On the two new Islamic banking and five new conventional banking licenses that will be issued to foreigners, Zeti replied that an announcement will be made in either May or June.
Bank Negara expects Malaysia’s current account surplus to narrow due to faster growth in imports but would remain at a significant RM103.8 billion this year.
The central bank’s net international reserves increased by RM13.8 billion to RM331.3 billion last year, enough to sustain 9.2 months of imports and was 4.3 times Malaysia’s short term external debt.
The bank made a net profit of RM7.7 billion last year and paid out RM2 billion in dividends.
Interesting figures. Hope the country is truly in good hands.
Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM), the main issuer of sukuk bonds in Malaysia, officially announced that the government will sell RM3.5 billion of Sukuk (Islamic bonds) due on September 30, 2015. Tendering for the paper closes on March 30.
When BNM goes into the market to mop up what they think is excess money from the system,it means they are aggressively trying to take more money out of the system and redirect it for government use. By doing so, the government does not need to go into more deficit financing in its annual budgets or to mount additional taxes. At the same time, when the free float of cash or near cash is narrowed, inflation can somehow be better managed and the bubble be averted.
So who pays for these papers? Those who will buy these papers range from insurance companies to pension funds and the like such as Tabung Haji,EPF and SOCSO who are collecting money from the citizen every single month. Unit trusts such as Permodalan Nasional could also be buying the funds and so are Islamic-denominated funds.
It is interesting to note that that the government did mention in the 2010 Budget that they will be issuing sukuk funds. Is this that move? If that is so, then there will no longer be any sukuk funds to be provided for the rakyat's subscription in 2010. If that be the case, then ASM1 could indirectly be targeted if it could announced a good maiden dividend in August 2010.
Well, the fight for the President of the sunk MCA is a 3-corner fight.
Like the Titanic, the MCA cannot be salvaged to its former glory, if ever there was a time. Was it only in Cheng Lock's time that MCA really contributed to the achievement of independence? Did it not play even once in nation building? Looks that way from hindsight.
So who among the candidates will win? Let us just look at the two more critical posts.
There are three candidates for the MCA Presidency.
Let us look at the incumbent. Ong Tee Keat is seen as blunt,brash and 'deaf'. He is a railroader. Do not stand in his path. But he is a friend to his loyalists. He can reward them as he has done before. The reports on his corruption has yet to be proven. However, as time goes by, more of his supporters are getting disillusioned by his 'devil may care' attitude.
Dr. Chua Soi Lek. He is the most competent Minister to date from the MCA. Period. He has done wonders for the professionals in the Ministry of Health. He has contributed to the nation-no doubt about it. He knew what he was doing then; he will know what he wants to do if elected President. His only Archilles Heel-that damn VCD of his hotel room tryst. The very fact that he was elected by majority vote to be the Deputy President should hold him in good stead. Even in the Double Ten referendum vote- of -no confidence, he lost marginally thanks to the presence of a 'third force'. Dr. Chua is the underdog in this contest. Like most underdogs, their supporters are downright loyal. They will be there for him , come rain or shine. He looks likely to be the first to pass the post on 28 March 2010.
Ong Ka Ting-he claims that he is coming back to unite the torn party. Can he? There is a Malay saying, " Nasi Sudah Jadi Bubur!". Literally, it means the rice has become broth. He cannot be an alchemist to change it back to rice. Ong Ka Ting is the pretender and will rob the party of the middle ground. He did not even whimper when the party was in shambles. He is unlikely to win At best, he is a spoiler.
Now, a look at the two contenders for Deputy President. Let us look closely at Liow Tiong Lai. He is as unexpressive and unimpressive as Kong, his contender. He has done nothing substantive as a Minister except doing visits to health facilities and rattling off statistics. He has the unresolved problem of the Toyota Aphard and he has been seen as opportunistic,impatient and is involved directly in scuttling MCA with the Youth and Wanita leaders in tow. He is unlikely to win in a normal situation if there are more contestants.
As for Kong, he is an unknown-There is no performance gauge on him as he is a newbie Minister. What he has is a mouthful of promises.He may win by a slim chance if Dr. Chua's supporters can overwhelm Ong Ka Ting's supporters and Liow Tiong Lai's supporters.It is uphill for him. Remotely, he may win as a dark horse.
As for Liow Tiong Lai, he seems to be the favourite if he indeed gets the middle ground support. However, this is uncertain because many voting members may just spoil their votes in disgust.
If indeed he comes in as the new Deputy President expect MCA to sink lower into an ocean trench!
This is one passionate poem we should all read about our Lord.
He could hear the crowds screaming "crucify" "crucify"...
He could hear the hatred in their voices,
These were his chosen people.
He loved them,
And they were going to crucify him.
He was beaten, bleeding and weakened... his heart was broken,
But still He walked.
He could see the crowd as he came from the palace.
He knew each of the faces so well.
He had created them.
He knew every smile, laugh, and shed tear,
But now they were contorted with rage and anger...his heart broke,
But still He walked.
Was he scared?
You and I would have been
So his humanness would have mandated that he was. He felt alone.
His disciples had left, denied, and even betrayed him.
He searched the crowd for a loving face and he saw very few.
Then he turned his eyes to the only one that mattered
And he knew that he would never be alone.
He looked back at the crowd, at the people who were spitting
At him, throwing rocks at him and mocking him and he knew
That because of him, they would never be alone.
So for them, He walked.
The sounds of the hammer striking the spikes echoed through
The crowd. The sounds of his cries echoed even louder,
The cheers of the crowd, as his hands and feet
Were nailed to the cross, intensified with each blow.
Loudest of all was the still small voice inside his
Heart that whispered "I am with you, my son",
And God's heart broke.
He had let his son walk.
Jesus could have asked God to end his suffering,
But instead he asked God to forgive.
Not to forgive him, but to forgive the ones who were persecuting him.
As he hung on that cross, dying an unimaginable death,
He looked out and saw, not only the faces in the crowd,
But also, the face of every person yet to be,
And his heart filled with love.
As his body was dying, his heart was alive.
Alive with the limitless, unconditional love he feels for each of us.
That is why He walked.
When I forget how much My God loves me,
I remember his walk.
When I wonder if I can be forgiven,
I remember his walk.
When I need reminded of how to live like Christ,
I think of his walk.
And to show him how much I love him,
I wake up each morning, turn my eyes to him,
And I walk.
Let us go back into some fundamental aspects towards better writing in English.
SIMPLE SENTENCE:
·Expresses one idea
·Has a subject and a predicate.has one main clause
·Contains one sentence and one verb:
Examples:
I like reading [ ‘I’ is the subject’ and ‘like’ is the verb]
Joanne is cooking in the kitchen. [subject is Joanne;is cooking is the verb and the predicate is,’ cooking in the kitchen]
Sam likes to swim in the evening. [Sam is the subject; like to swim in the evening is the predicate and the verb is ‘like’]
He did not buy a lot of food. [‘He’ is subject,’did not buy a lot of food’ is the predicate;’did not buy’ is the verb.]
COMPOUND SENTENCE:
·It contains two or more ideas.
·It is made up of two or more simple sentence
·Normally joined by conjunctions such as ‘and, but,or,either… or, neither..nor]
Example:
He went to the shops. He bought some magazines.
He went to the shops and bought some magazines.
He brought the magazines. He forgot the books.
He brought the magazines but forgot the books.
Norma slept early. She was exhausted.
Norma slept early because she was exhausted.
They were not in. I left.
They were not in, so I left
Gana could not come. Selva could not come
Neither Gana nor Selva could come.
COMPLEX SENTENCE
-Contains A Simple Sentence (The Main Clause and One or Two Subsidiary Clauses)
MAIN CLAUSE
SUBSIDIARY CLAUSE
Gim See has an uncle
who was a state swimmer.
Thackeray visited his childhood friend
while he was in Hong-Kong.
I saw camels
which have two humps.
The teacher wants the posters
which are pasted on the classroom walls.
This is the school
where I studied.
Abram likes to stay in a hotel
where there is a swimming pool.
Kek Seng is sad
as his dog has died .
CLASSWORK:
Each of the sentences below has a simple sentence and a subordinate clause. Identify the simple sentence and subordinate clause for each of the sentences.
Example:
Herman knows Fergie’s brother who is a chef.
Herman knows Fergie’s brother .
(simple sentence)
……..who is a chef.
(subordinate clause)
1.Katryn has a sister who makes great pizzas.
2.Chooi Seng is a great fan of J.K. Rowling whose books he never fails to read.
3.Can you show me the photograph of the boy who looks like me?
4.The man who caught the snatch thief is my cousin brother.
5.The road which leads to town has been washed away.
6.Mr. DeSilva who is a wealthy man has gone to India.
7.The students who were caught cheating will be punished.
8.Badminton which is quite easy to learn is a good form of exercise.
9.My good friend who works as a librarian will help you.
10.This cloudy weather that we have today is suitable for walking in the park.
MAKE COMPOUND SENTENCES BY JOINING THESE SIMPLE SENTENCES
1.Gavin Wanted To Go To Town. Gavin got on an LRT.
2.Henry wanted to climb a coconut tree. Henry is afraid of heights.
3.Jamal fell off his bicycle. Jamal hurt his ankle.
4.Nellie wanted to send an email to her friend. Nellie does not know her email address.
5.Joy wanted to make a chocolate cake. Joy bought some cooking chocolate, flour and eggs
6.The battery in the cell-phone is weak. His father replaced it with a new one.
7.You can go to the library to read. You can join me at the cinema to watch, ‘Avatar’.
8.It was raining cats and dogs. We had to cancel our picnic.
9.I called Jasmine many times. She did not reply.
10.We must read our English literature books daily. We must do all our homework to do well in our exams
UNDERLINE THE MAIN IDEA IN THESE COMPLEX SENTENCES
1.He will have to pass the message to Gloria when he sees her tomorrow.
2.Since he had a stomachache, he will have to see a doctor.
3.They could camp in the school field for the week-end if they want to.
4.The girls went into the shop so that they could admire the little puppies in the cages.
5.There will be a flood in the village unless this heavy rain stops soon.
6.My sister, who is very hard-working, has gone to Scotland to study medicine.
7.Zoey was terrified that she might drown in the swimming pool.
8.The beggar won’t go away unless you give him a ringgit.
9.He would not make any decision unless he has consulted his parents.
10.The man who normally delivers my newspapers is dead.
In journeying through life, many things will happen to us. We are amused by many things. We sober up on others. Oftentimes,we reflect on the more important ones and we meditate deeply on some of them.
Journaler 0203 will chronicle the milestones of the author's life in 2009, the crossroads where decisions had to be made, times when he reflected on things past and his vision for the immediate future. So come; journey with him and have fun reading his entries!
