EPF: Consolable 5.65% 2009 Dividend

It may not be the best rate but 5.65% is consolable for most EPF contributors. This dividend rate for 2009 was up  115 basis points over the 4.50 per cent paid out for 2008.

The dividend rate was declared on the back of the highest ever net income achieved of RM19.63 billion, increasing 34.82 per cent from RM14.56 billion recorded in the previous year.

“2009 was a significant year for the EPF as it rode out the impact of the global financial crisis. While the EPF continues to be challenged by the fragile economic environment, our investment nonetheless delivered a sound performance for the year,” chairman Tan Sri Samsudin Osman said in a statement today.

During the year under review, 72.53 per cent of the total investment were devoted to fixed income instruments in line with EPF’s prudent approach, while 27.05 per cent was in equities and the remainder in property.

As at Dec 31, 2009, EPF’s investment portfolio grew 8.55 per cent or RM29.25 billion to RM371.26 billion from RM342.01 billion in 2008.

On prospects for 2010, Samsudin said “baring any unforeseen circumstances, prospects for 2010 are greatly dependent on the economic performance of the country and internationally.”

He said globally, financial markets continued to be volatile and this might have an impact on the price performance of EPF’s investments and future income.

“We will continue to focus on our key goals of preserving the capital of our contributors and ensuring a satisfactory real rate of return,” he added.

Any More Concessions and Back-Pedaling?

Wow, it was certainly good news that the government has withdrawn the Mycard tiered subsidy scheme for petrol. Now, they are telling us that petrol will be increased gradually.

I have also heard that traffic fines and compounds for traffic offenses have been reduced comfortably as seen in the latest web-site of our local Police.

Also Socso recipients have got an increase of their payout from below 1% to 11%. A bonanza for some, I guess in the current times when interbank interest rates have just been increased to 2.25%

I wonder what else is coming our way? A better dividend for EPF as well as for Amanah Saham Malaysia which will be announced in March?

Hey, I also heard civil servants are awaiting news of the new pensionable age at 60!

Is it because of the impending Sarawak State elections or is it because of a possible snap elections at the federal level late this year or in 2011 that we are getting these goodies?

We are pregnant with expectation.

China: Cautious about 2010

It looks like public welfare and rural spending is the way the government will spend its way to keep China's economy healthy. This was confirmed by  Premier Wen Jiabao  as the government tightens its belt after a burst of feverish spending. in 2009.

Wen told the country’s parliament that China’s economy faced a clouded international outlook in 2010 and would stick to a steady policy course this year, shifting tack if needed to counter the lingering impact of the global credit crunch.

China would maintain an appropriately easy monetary stance and an active fiscal policy, he added, showing no sign of a break from current settings.

Wen also signalled continued caution towards the yuan, reiterating standard language that Beijing would seek to keep the currency basically steady at a reasonable and balanced level.

To the dismay of Washington and Brussels, China has frozen the yuan’s exchange rate at around 6.83 per dollar since mid-2008 to preserve the international competitiveness of its exporters.

In his annual “State of the Union”-style report to the National People’s Congress, Wen unveiled increases in spending for China’s poorer citizens and 700-million strong farming population that outstripped the planned rise in military outlays.

China wants to slow spending and bank lending after pumping out cash to counter the global downturn, but Wen said improvements in social welfare, healthcare and rural services were needed to secure the nation’s economic health and the ruling Communist Party’s hold over an increasingly fractured society.

“We can ensure that there is sustained impetus for economic development, a solid foundation for social progress, and lasting stability for the country only by working hard to ensure and improve people’s well-being,” Wen told the nearly 3,000 delegates of the Communist Party-controlled legislature.

China escaped the worst of the global slump by ramping up credit, slashing interest rates and launching a 4 trillion yuan (RM2 billion) infrastructure programme in late 2008.

The economy grew 8.7 per cent last year as a result, by far the fastest pace of any major country, but Wen played down the achievement.

More domestically-driven growth, fueled by consumers more confident about their health, incomes and welfare protection, was needed to keep the world’s third-biggest economy growing at a solid pace, he said.

“We must not interpret the economic turnaround as a fundamental improvement in the economic situation,” Wen said in the cavernous Great Hall of the People.

“There are insufficient internal drivers of economic growth,” he added, reading aloud the 36-page report in a practiced, steady voice, occasionally pausing for effect and applause.

Wen said China was targeting 8 per cent growth in gross domestic product — the goal it traditionally sets every year — and an inflation rate of about 3 per cent.

Wen announced increases of 8.8 per cent on social spending and 12.8 per cent on rural outlays — more than the rise of 7.5 per cent in the military budget — to narrow the yawning wealth gap that economists blame for dampening domestic consumption.

China’s parliament is a party-run spectacle that affirms policy, rather than making or challenging it.
But the gathering offers an opportunity for the party leadership to sell their policies, which face growing doubts from wealthier taxpayers and from local officials who see little wrong with the country’s traditional recipe of industrial growth.

“We will continue to give preference to agriculture, farmers and rural areas, and to improving people’s well-being and developing social programmes,” said Wen, whose second and final five-year term running the Chinese government ends in 2013.

Still, the projected growth in welfare and agriculture spending is much slower than in 2009 when the financial crisis was raging.

Reflecting the conservatism of China’s financial planners, the budget deficit will again be kept below 3 per cent of national income, Wen said.

Last year the deficit was just 2.2 per cent of GDP despite massive government spending on infrastructure and job creation.

Dinosaurs Extinction: Attributed to an Asteriod

 

So how did teh dinosaurs disappear?

Today, a Reuters report indicates that scientists are agreeable that they were done in by an asteroid smashing onto earth and the resultant environmental conditions no longer supported the continued existence for the dinosuars.

Let us read this report.

A giant asteroid smashing into Earth is the only plausible explanation for the extinction of the dinosaurs, a global scientific team said yesterday, hoping to settle a row that has divided experts for decades.
A panel of 41 scientists from across the world reviewed 20 years’ worth of research to try to confirm the cause of the so-called Cretaceous-Tertiary (KT) extinction, which created a “hellish environment” around 65 million years ago and wiped out more than half of all species on the planet.

Scientific opinion was split over whether the extinction was caused by an asteroid or by volcanic activity in the Deccan Traps in what is now India, where there were a series of super volcanic eruptions that lasted around 1.5 million years.
The new study, conducted by scientists from Europe, the United States, Mexico, Canada and Japan and published in the journal Science, found that a 15km-wide asteroid slamming into Earth at Chicxulub in what is now Mexico was the culprit.
“We now have great confidence that an asteroid was the cause of the KT extinction. This triggered large-scale fires, earthquakes measuring more than 10 on the Richter scale, and continental landslides, which created tsunamis,” said Joanna Morgan of Imperial College London, a co-author of the review.

The asteroid is thought to have hit Earth with a force a billion times more powerful than the atomic bomb at Hiroshima.

Morgan said the “final nail in the coffin for the dinosaurs” came when blasted material flew into the atmosphere, shrouding the planet in darkness, causing a global winter and “killing off many species that couldn’t adapt to this hellish environment.”

Scientists working on the study analysed the work of palaeontologists, geochemists, climate modellers, geophysicists and sedimentologists who have been collecting evidence about the KT extinction over the last 20 years.
Geological records show the event that triggered the dinosaurs’ demise rapidly destroyed marine and land ecosystems, they said, and the asteroid hit “is the only plausible explanation for this.”

Peter Schulte of the University of Erlangen in Germany, a lead author on the study, said fossil records clearly show a mass extinction about 65.5 million years ago — a time now known as the K-Pg boundary.
Despite evidence of active volcanism in India, marine and land ecosystems only showed minor changes in the 500,000 years before the K-Pg boundary, suggesting the extinction did not come earlier and was not prompted by eruptions.
The Deccan volcano theory is also thrown into doubt by models of atmospheric chemistry, the team said, which show the asteroid impact would have released much larger amounts of sulphur, dust and soot in a much shorter time than the volcanic eruptions could have, causing extreme darkening and cooling.

Gareth Collins, another co-author from Imperial College, said the asteroid impact created a “hellish day” that signalled the end of the 160-million-year reign of the dinosaurs, but also turned out to be a great day for mammals.

“The KT extinction was a pivotal moment in Earth’s history, which ultimately paved the way for humans to become the dominant species on Earth,” he wrote in a commentary on the study.

The move by Bank Negara Malaysia to raise the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) by 25 basis has been expected by economists who are now projecting a further rise in the OPR by year end.

The central bank’s decision to raise the OPR to 2.25 per cent at its Monetary Policy Committee meeting this evening is expected, said Affin Investment Bank economist, Alan Tan. The stronger economic growth for the fourth quarter last year provided the room for Bank Negara to normalise interest rates after cutting it to a historical low last year, he said.

Tan said the process of normalising interest rates amid the backdrop of limited pressure on inflation coincide with the stronger-than-expected 4.5 per cent year-on-year gross domestic product growth in fourth quarter last year. He said with prevailing uncertainty in the global economic recovery, the increase in interest rates should not be seen as tightening of monetary policy but rather the normalising of interest rate which has been at record low, partly to address the issue of financial imbalances. Tan said he also expected a total of 50 basis points hike in OPR this year, which will bring the OPR to 2.5 per cent by end of the year.

Bank Islam Malaysia Bhd’s chief economist Azrul Azwar Ahmad Tajudin said he expected an even bigger increase in the OPR, and was looking at 3.0 per cent as a strong possibility this year. “I expect they (Bank Negara) will increase 25 basis point at each Monetary Policy Meeting until July this year, then it will take a breather until end of the year,” he told Bernama, expecting the move to be gradual. He said the ringgit should gain some grounds following the OPR hike and strengthen further going forward, while the Government’s decision not to make a fuel price adjustment would ease the pressure of inflation this year. “With such a modest inflation outlook, I don’t foresee an aggressive monetary tightening campaign,” he said.

RAM Holdings Bhd chief economist Dr Yeah Kim Leng expected another 75 basis points increase in the OPR this year and expected the rise to be gradual and to the pre-crisis level. He said 3.25-3.5 per cent should be a normal level for the OPR to ensure sustainable growth in the country. Yeah said raising the OPR signalled Bank Negara’s confidence in the economic recovery.

“The confidence is rising. We can see that the GDP projection is achievable,” he told Bernama, adding that many were expecting GDP to grow as much as five per cent this year with the Government looking at 6.0 per cent. He also expected the ringgit to strengthen further this year, in line with other Asian currencies. Yeah also expect the local unit to hit 3.2-3.3 level against the US dollar by end of this year. “The uptrend will continue because of the recent Euro and Pound weaknesses. Asian currencies will appreciate faster than other currencies,” he added.

Malaysian Investors Association president Datuk Dr P.H.S. Lim attributed the hike in interest rate to the better economic performance in the last quarter of 2009, and the US Federal Reserve move to increase interest rate by 0.25 points to 0.75 points. With a better economic background, interest rate will move up in line with global economic growth and to combat inflation, he added.

Furniture Business Scenario @2009

Let us looks at some facts and the scenario of furniture manufacturing in 2009.

There are more than 1,800 furniture companies currently operating locally and 90% of the production is for export. Total investment in the industry last year came to RM174.7mil. This information was given yesterday by the International Trade Minister at the Malaysian International Furniture Fair (MIFF) Exhibition 2010, Mustapha Mohamed.

Malaysia-made furniture is exported to more than 160 countries and the country is ranked the world’s 10th largest furniture exporter, while local furniture exports were valued at RM7.6bil last year, accounting for 1.9% of total exports of manufactured goods, according to Mustapa.

MIFF 2010, which began yesterday, will run till Saturday at three venues – the Putra World Tarde Centre, Kuala Lumpur Convention Centre and the Matrade Exhibition & Convention Centre (MECC).MIFF Sdn Bhd is the organiser of the fair with The Star as the official media partner.

More than 500 exhibitors from countries like Malaysia, China, Indonesia, South Korea, Singapore, the United States, Turkey and Japan are showcasing their products.
MIFF managing director Datuk Tan Chin Huat said sales of about US$750mil were expected at this year’s fair, compared with US$710mil last year.

“More than 20,000 visitors are expected at the fair this year, compared with a total of 19,075 visitors last year,” he told a press conference.

He said economic spinoffs of over RM40mil were expected to be generated for Malaysia’s tourism, hotel, restaurant and other businesses during the fair.

In an effort to highlight ongoing trends in the furniture industry, a series of seminars with the theme, “Sustainable Materials for Green Future,” has also been arranged by the organiser.

MRCB: Rights Serendipity

After the annoucement that the rights issue was over-subscribed,this definitely came as a big bomb! A technical under-subscription? How did it occur? Are the MRCB lawyers as well as the Investment Bank that conducted the rights issue offer,'asleep at the wheel'?

Let us read how the imbroglio happened. This is the STAR on-line report on 4 March 2010.

The Employees Provident Fund (EPF) has made a conditional takeover offer to buy all the shares in Malaysian Resources Corp Bhd (MRCB) for RM1.50 each after triggering the takeover threshold.

The exercise could see EPF pay up to RM1.36bil for MRCB if there was full acceptance from other shareholders.

The conditional offer was prompted after EPF was allocated additional shares under MRCB’s RM566mil rights issue that led to the fund’s shareholding in the developer exceed 33% to 33.78%.

The increase in EPF’s shareholding past the 33% threshold obliged the fund to conduct the takeover under the Malaysian Code on Take-Overs and Mergers, 1998.

In a statement to Bursa Malaysia yesterday, MRCB said EPF, however, intended to maintain the listed status of MRCB and would not privatise the company.

OSK Research head Chris Eng said the offer of RM1.50 a share was slightly below the brokerage’s fair value and that the offer itself was not very attractive.

“There is a lot more potential in the company which we have not factored into the fair value of the stock,’’ he said.

MRCB is talked about being a bidder for major tracks of land in the Klang Valley and the money it raised from the rights issue would go towards buying land for future development projects.

Analysts said its track record in developing KL Sentral would act as a good platform for MRCB in making its case in any bids for such land.

Sources said EPF was unable to apply for a waiver from making the takeover from the Securities Commission as it did not fulfill an important criterion, which is the condition of not trading a company’s shares in the past six months.[As such the issuing house Investment Bank should take note of this condition: They should not be buying the targeted shares within the period of 6 months if they attend to apply for a Mandatory General Offer(MGO) waiver.]

Under the Code, EPF would have to offer to shareholders of MRCB the highest price it paid to buy an MRCB share over the past six months, sources said.

The offer for MRCB represents a small 2% premium over the last traded price of the stock of RM1.47. Sources said EPF wanted to make a fair offer but did not intend to give large premiums of around 20% seen in other privatisation deals as it was not the fund’s intention to delist the company from the stock exchange.
“It does not want to take the company private and would like to see future capital appreciation of MRCB,’’ the source said.

Sources also shot down suggestions that the takeover offer was a new strategic direction for the fund where it would prefer direct control of companies.
 
Although EPF controls RHB Capital Bhd and Malaysian Building Society Bhd, it does not want to take MRCB down the same path.

Sources said even if EPF, which also owns large stakes in other developers such as IJM Corp Bhd, dramatically increases its stake in MRCB, it would not make MRCB its vehicle for property ventures.

So which way will the share price go now? It is obvious that the shareholders will not take this offer price of RM1.50 when the current current  price is RM1.46